| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
-
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
|
|
| 2. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
-
TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
|
|
| 3. |
- Joshi, Peter K, et al.
(författare)
-
Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 523:7561, s. 459-462
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power. Here we use runs of homozygosity to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts, and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in one second, general cognitive ability and educational attainment (P < 1 × 10(-300), 2.1 × 10(-6), 2.5 × 10(-10) and 1.8 × 10(-10), respectively). In each case, increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months' less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing evidence that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.
|
|
| 4. |
- Birney, Ewan, et al.
(författare)
-
Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 447:7146, s. 799-816
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.
|
|
| 5. |
- Collins, Matthew D., et al.
(författare)
-
Arsenicicoccus bolidensis gen. nov., sp nov., a novel actinomycete isolated from contaminated lake sediment
- 2004
-
Ingår i: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SYSTEMATIC AND EVOLUTIONARY MICROBIOLOGY. - : Microbiology Society. - 1466-5026 .- 1466-5034. ; 54, s. 605-608
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An unknown Gram-positive, catalase-positive, facultatively anaerobic, non-spore-forming, coccus-shaped bacterium originating from sediment was characterized using phenotypic, molecular chemical and molecular phylogenetic methods. Chemical studies revealed the presence of a cell-wall murein based on ll-diaminopimelic acid (type ll-Dpm-glycine1), a complex mixture of saturated, monounsaturated and iso- and anteiso-methyl-branched, non-hydroxylated, long-chain cellular fatty acids and tetrahydrogenated menaquinones with eight isoprene units [MK-8(H4)] as the major respiratory lipoquinone. This combination of characteristics somewhat resembled members of the suborder Micrococcineae, but did not correspond to any currently described species. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing confirmed that the unidentified coccus-shaped organism is a member of the Actinobacteria and represents a hitherto-unknown subline related to, albeit different from, a number of taxa including Intrasporangium, Janibacter, Terrabacter, Terracoccus and Ornithinicoccus. Based on phenotypic and phylogenetic considerations, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium originating from lake sediment be classified as a new genus and species, Arsenicicoccus bolidensis gen. nov., sp. nov. (type strain CCUG 47306T=DSM 15745T).
|
|
| 6. |
- Collins, Matthew D., et al.
(författare)
-
Characterization of some Strains from Human Clinical Sources which resemble “Leptotrichia sanguinegens”: Description of Sneathia sanguinegens sp. nov., gen. nov.
- 2001
-
Ingår i: Systematic and Applied Microbiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0723-2020. ; 24:3, s. 358-361
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Three strains of a Gram-negative, blood or serum requiring, rod-shaped bacterium recovered from human clinical specimens were characterised by phenotypic and molecular taxonomic methods. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed the unknown rod-shaped strains are members of the same species as some fastidious isolates recovered from human blood specimens and previously designated “Leptotrichia sanguinegens”. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence, it is proposed that the isolates from human sources be classified in a new genus Sneathia, as Sneathia sanguinegens gen. nov., sp. nov. The type strain of Sneathia sanguinegens is CCUG 41628T.
|
|
| 7. |
- Kjær, Kurt H., et al.
(författare)
-
A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 612:7939, s. 283-291
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming2. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values3,4. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare5. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.
|
|
| 8. |
- Lawson, Paul A, et al.
(författare)
-
Dysgonomonas mossii sp. nov., from Human Sources
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Systematic and Applied Microbiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0723-2020. ; 25:2, s. 194-197
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phenotypic and phylogenetic studies were performed on seven unidentified Gram-negative, facultatively anaerobic, coccobacillus-shaped organisms isolated from human clinical specimens. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing demonstrated that four of the strains corresponded to Dysgonomonas capnocytophagoides whereas the remaining three isolates represent a new sub-line within the genus Dysgonomonas, displaying greater than 5% sequence divergence with Dysgonomonas capnocytophagoides and Dysgonomonas gadei. The three novel isolates were readily distinguished from D.capnocytophagoides and D. gadei by biochemical tests. The DNA base composition of the novel species was consistent with its assignment to the genus Dysgonomonas. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence it is proposed that the unknown species, be classified as Dysgonomonas mossii sp. nov. The type strain of Dysgonomonas mossii is CCUG 43457T (= CIP 107079T).
|
|
| 9. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
-
Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
|
|
| 10. |
- Gilbert, M. Thomas P., et al.
(författare)
-
Whole-genome shotgun sequencing of mitochondria from ancient hair shafts
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 317:5846, s. 1927-1930
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although the application of sequencing-by-synthesis techniques to DNA extracted from bones has revolutionized the study of ancient DNA, it has been plagued by large fractions of contaminating environmental DNA. The genetic analyses of hair shafts could be a solution: We present 10 previously unexamined Siberian mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) mitochondrial genomes, sequenced with up to 48-fold coverage. The observed levels of damage-derived sequencing errors were lower than those observed in previously published frozen bone samples, even though one of the specimens was >50,000 14C years old and another had been stored for 200 years at room temperature. The method therefore sets the stage for molecular-genetic analysis of museum collections.
|
|
