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| 2. |
- Boyd, Emily, et al.
(författare)
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Building resilience to face recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 3:7, s. 631-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.
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| 3. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Borderless Heat Hazards With Bordered Impacts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2328-4277. ; 9:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity due to climate change. They are associated with high mortality rates and cross-sectional impacts including a reduction in crop yield and power outages. Here we demonstrate that there are large deficiencies in reporting of heatwave impacts in international disasters databases, international organization reports, and climate bulletins. We characterize the distribution of heat stress across the world focusing on August in the Northern Hemisphere, when notably heatwaves have taken place (i.e., 2003, 2010, and 2020) for the last 20 years using the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis of the Universal Thermal Comfort Index and establish heat stress has grown larger in extent, more so during a heatwave. Comparison of heat stress against the emergency events impacts database and climate reports reveals underreporting of heatwave-related impacts. This work suggests an internationally agreed protocol should be put in place for impact reporting by organizations and national government, facilitating implementation of preparedness measures, and early warning systems.
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| 4. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Heatwaves : An invisible risk in UK policy and research
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Policy. - : Elsevier. - 1462-9011 .- 1873-6416. ; 116, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2019, a heatwave - an unusual extended period of hot weather - broke the UK's highest recorded temperature of 38.7 degrees C set in 2003. Of concern is that for summer 2019, this resulted in 892 excess deaths. With the intensity and frequency of UK heatwaves projected to increase, and summer temperatures predicted to be 5 degrees C hotter by 2070, urgent action is needed to prepare for, and adapt to, the changes now and to come. Yet it remains unclear what actions are needed and by whom. In response, a systematic literature review of UK heatwaves peer reviewed publications, inclusive of keyword criteria (total papers returned = 183), was conducted to understand what lessons have been learnt and what needs to happen next. Our research shows that heatwaves remain largely an invisible risk in the UK. Communication over what UK residents should do, the support needed to make changes, and their capacity to enact those changes, is often lacking. In turn, there is an inherent bias where research focuses too narrowly on the health and building sectors over other critical sectors, such as agriculture. An increased amount of action and leadership is therefore necessary from the UK government to address this.
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| 5. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Thermofeel : A python thermal comfort indices library
- 2022
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Ingår i: SoftwareX. - : Elsevier. - 2352-7110. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here the development of the python library thermofeel is described. thermofeel was developed so that prominent internationally used thermal indices (i.e. Universal Thermal Climate Index and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) could be implemented into operational weather forecasting systems (i.e. the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) whilst also adhering to open research practices. This library will be of benefit to many sectors including meteorology, sport, health and social care, hygiene, agriculture and building. In addition, it could be used in heat early warning systems which, with the right preparedness measures, has the potential to save lives from thermal extremes.
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| 6. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Wet Bulb Globe Temperature : Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid
- 2023
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Ingår i: GeoHealth. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2471-1403. ; 7:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an international standard heat index used by the health, industrial, sports, and climate sectors to assess thermal comfort during heat extremes. Observations of its components, the globe and the wet bulb temperature (WBT), are however sparse. Therefore WBGT is difficult to derive, making it common to rely on approximations, such as the ones developed by Liljegren et al. and by the American College of Sports Medicine (WBGT(ACSM87)). In this study, a global data set is created by implementing an updated WBGT method using ECMWF ERA5 gridded meteorological variables and is evaluated against existing WBGT methods. The new method, WBGT(Brimicombe), uses globe temperature calculated using mean radiant temperature and is found to be accurate in comparison to WBGT(Liljegren) across three heatwave case studies. In addition, it is found that WBGT(ACSM87) is not an adequate approximation of WBGT. Our new method is a candidate for a global forecasting early warning system.
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| 7. |
- Fazey, Ioan, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth : Visions of future systems and how to get there
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.
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| 8. |
- Parker, Hannah R., et al.
(författare)
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Using a Game to Engage Stakeholders in Extreme Event Attribution Science
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2095-0055 .- 2192-6395. ; 7:4, s. 353-365
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing, and climate change can exacerbate many disasters. Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together. But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensional nature of the issues at stake when managing climate risks. Building on the growing use of serious games to create dialogue between stakeholders, we present a new game for policymakers called Climate Attribution Under Loss and Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating (CAULDRON). CAULDRON aims to communicate understanding of the science attributing extreme events to climate change in a memorable and compelling way, and create space for dialogue around policy decisions addressing changing risks and loss and damage from climate change. We describe the process of developing CAULDRON, and draw on observations of players and their feedback to demonstrate its potential to facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic climate information and the understanding of its relevance to informing policy. Scientists looking to engage with stakeholders can learn valuable lessons in adopting similar innovative approaches. The suitability of games depends on the policy context but, if used appropriately, experiential learning can drive coproduced understanding and meaningful dialogue.
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| 9. |
- Young, Hannah R., et al.
(författare)
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Event Attribution science in adaptation decision-making : the context of extreme rainfall in urban Senegal
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate and Development. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1756-5529 .- 1756-5537. ; 11:9, s. 812-824
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Event attribution assesses the effect of climate change on individual extreme events. While scientists have suggested that results could be relevant for climate adaptation policy, this has had little empirical investigation, particularly in developing regions. Taking the case of Senegal, the national adaptation policy context regarding extreme precipitation and flooding in urban areas, and the scientific information needed to support this policy is investigated using key informant interviews, a workshop and document analysis. Flooding in Senegal was found to be viewed primarily as an urban planning concern rather than a climate change issue, with actions to address the impacts focussing on current vulnerabilities of urban communities without considering changing climate risks. While stakeholders thought event attribution might be useful to inform about climate change impacts and future risks of extreme events, it is unclear whether there would be an opportunity for this at present, due to the limited role climate information has in adaptation decision-making. While addressing vulnerability to extremes is necessary whether or not the risk is climate change-related, if long-term planning is to be resilient then knowledge about future changes in risks of extremes will need to be considered, even if individual events are not attributed to climate change.
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