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| 2. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Excess mortality after hospitalisation for vertebral fracture
- 2004
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 15:2, s. 108-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An excess mortality is well described after vertebral fracture. Deaths are in part related to co-morbidity, but could also be due to the fracture event itself, either directly or indirectly. The aim of this study was to examine the quantum and pattern of mortality following vertebral fracture. We identified 16,051 men and women aged 50 years or more with a vertebral fracture that required hospitalization in 28.8 million person years from the patient register of Sweden. Mortality after vertebral fracture was examined using Poisson models applied to fracture patients and compared to that of the general population. At all ages, the risk of death was markedly increased immediately after the event. After a short period of declining risk, the risk increased with age at a rate that was higher than that of the general population and comparable to that 1 year after hip fracture. The latter function was assumed to be due to deaths related to co-morbidity and the residuum assumed to be due to the vertebral fracture. Causally related deaths comprised 28% of all deaths associated with vertebral fracture (depending on age). We conclude that a minority of deaths following hospitalization for vertebral fracture are attributable to the fracture itself under the assumptions we used.
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| 3. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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International variations in hip fracture probabilities: Implications for risk assessment
- 2002
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 17:7, s. 1237-1244
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is recommended that intervention thresholds should be based on absolute fracture risk, but there is a large variation in hip fracture incidence from different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to examine heterogeneity of hip fracture probability in different regions from recent estimates of hip fracture incidence and mortality to adjust intervention thresholds. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture were computed in men and women at 10-year intervals from the age of 50 years and lifetime risks at the age of 50 years from the hazard functions of hip fracture and death. Lifetime risk at the age of 50 years varied from 1% in women from Turkey to 28.5% in women from Sweden. High lifetime risks in women were associated with high lifetime risks in men (r = 0.83). There also were significant correlations of 10-year risk at any age between men and women. Ten-year probability was standardized to that of men and women from Sweden (set at 1.0). There was a 15-fold range in 10-year probability from 1.24 in Norway to 0.08 in Chile. Countries were categorized by 10-year probabilities comprising very high risk (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States), high risk (China [Taiwan {TW}], Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Greece, Canada, The Netherlands, Hungary, Singapore, Italy, United Kingdom, Kuwait, Australia, and Portugal), medium risk (China [Hong Kong {HK}], France, Japan, Spain, Argentina, and China), and low risk (Turkey, Korea, Venezuela, and Chile). The categorization of hip fracture probabilities can be used to adjust intervention thresholds based on age, sex, and relative risk from a reference population such as Sweden.
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| 4. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Intervention thresholds for osteoporosis
- 2002
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Ingår i: Bone. - 1873-2763. ; 31:1, s. 26-31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to determine the threshold of fracture probability at which interventions become cost-effective. We modeled the effects of a treatment costing $500/year, given for 5 years, that decreased the risk of all osteoporotic fractures by 35%, followed by a waning of effect for 5 years. Sensitivity analyses included a range of effectiveness (10%-50%) and a range of intervention costs ($200-500/year). Data on costs and risks were from Sweden. Costs included direct costs and costs in added years of life, but excluded indirect costs due to morbidity. A threshold for cost-effectiveness of $60,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was used. Costs of added years were excluded in a sensitivity analysis for which a threshold value of $30,000 per QALY was used. In the base case, intervention was cost-effective when treatment was targeted to women at average risk at age of greater than or equal to65 years. Irrespective of the efficacy modeled (10%-50%) or of cost of intervention ($200-500/year) segments of the population at average risk could be targeted cost-effectively: The lower the intervention cost and the higher the effectiveness, the lower the age at which intervention was cost-effective. With the base case ($500/year; 35% efficacy) treatment in women was cost-effective with a 10 year hip fracture probability that ranged from 1.4% at the age of 50 years to 4.4% at the age of 65 years. The exclusion of osteoporotic fractures other than hip fracture would increase the threshold to a 9%-11% 10 year probability because of the substantial morbidity from fractures other than hip fracture, particularly at younger ages. We conclude that the inclusion of all osteoporotic fractures has a marked effect on intervention thresholds, that these vary with age, and that available treatments can be cost-effectively targeted to individuals at moderately increased risk.
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| 5. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Ten-year probabilities of clinical vertebral fractures according to phalangeal quantitative ultrasonography
- 2005
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 16:9, s. 1065-1070
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objectives of the present study were to estimate 10-year probabilities of clinical vertebral fractures in women, according to age and bone mineral assessment using phalangeal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). Risks were computed from UK derived data on the incidence of a first symptomatic vertebral fracture and mortality rates for each year of age using Poisson models. The 10-year probability of vertebral fracture was determined as the proportion of individuals fracture-free at that site from the age of 45 years. We assumed that the risk of fracture increased with decreasing QUS as assessed by an independent re-analysis of a previously published, multicenter cross-sectional study. For amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS) information was available from 8,502 women, and vertebral fracture risk increased 1.7-fold for each SD decrease in measurement. For fast wave amplitude (FWA), available in 6,573 women, the risk gradient was 2.4/SD. In a subset of the population ( n =1,572) in whom bone mineral density was measured at the lumbar spine, the gradient of risk was 2.3/SD, with similar gradients of risk noted for AD-SoS (1.8/SD) and FWA (2.6/SD). Ten-year probabilities increased with age and decreasing Z -score. The use of absolute risk permits information from different types of bone mineral measurements to be applied for the assessment of patients, either alone or in combination with other independent risk factors.
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| 6. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Ten-year risk of osteoporotic fracture and the effect of risk factors on screening strategies
- 2002
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Ingår i: Bone. - 1873-2763. ; 30:1, s. 251-258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bone mineral density (BMD) measurements are widely used to estimate the risk of osteoporotic fractures. In addition, many other risk factors have been identified, sonic of which are known to add to the risk independently of BMD measurements. The combination of BMD with such risk factors increases the gradient of risk/standard deviation (SD) than that achieved by BMD alone. In this paper, we report the fracture probabilities according to age, gender, and relative risk, and have investigated the effects of changes in the gradient of risk for osteoporotic fractures on the sensitivity and specificity of assessments, modeled on the population of Sweden. Ten-year risks of hip, clinical vertebral, forearm, or proximal humeral fracture were computed with increments in gradient of risk that varied from 1.5 to 6.0 per SD change in skeletal risk. The identification of high-risk groups had little effect on the specificity of assessments, but increased the sensitivity over a wide range of assumptions. The inclusion of all four fracture types had little effect on sensitivity, but increased the positive predictive value of the test. Positive predictive value also increased with age, so that values greater than 50% were obtained testing women at the age of 65 years with modest gradient of risk of 2.0-2.5/SD when small segments of the population were targeted (0.5-5%). Screening of women to direct intervention at the age of 65 years and targeting 25% of the population could save up to 23% of all fractures in women over the next 10 years by the use of multiple tests with a moderate gradient of risk (RR = 2.0/SD). Such gradients might be achieved with the use of multiple risk factors to identify patients at risk. (C) 2002 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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The components of excess mortality after hip fracture
- 2003
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Ingår i: Bone. - 1873-2763. ; 32:5, s. 468-473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A high excess mortality is well described after hip fracture. Deaths are in part related to comorbidity and in part due directly or indirectly to the hip fracture event itself (causally related deaths). The aim of this study was to examine the quantum and pattern of mortality following hip fracture. We studied 160,000 hip fractures in men and women aged 50 years or more, in 28.8 million person-years from the patient register of Sweden, using Poisson models applied to hip fracture patients and the general population. At all ages the risk of death was markedly increased compared with population values immediately after the event. Mortality subsequently decreased over a period of 6 months, but thereafter remained higher than that of the general population. The latter function was assumed to account for deaths related to comorbidity and the residuum assumed to be due to the hip fracture. Causally related deaths comprised 17-32% of all deaths associated with hip fracture (depending on age) and accounted for more than 1.5% of all deaths in the population aged 50 years or more. Hip fracture was a more common cause for mortality than pancreatic or stomach cancer. Thus, interventions that decreased hip fracture rate by, say, 50% would avoid 0.75% or more of all deaths.
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| 8. |
- Kanis, JA, et al.
(författare)
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The risk and burden of vertebral fractures in Sweden
- 2004
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 15:1, s. 20-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to determine the risk and burden of vertebral fractures judged as those coming to clinical attention and as morphometric fractures. Incidence and utility loss were computed from data from Malmo, Sweden. Clinical fractures accounted for 23% of all vertebral deformities in women and for 42% in men. The average 10-year fracture probability for morphometric fractures increased with age in men from 2.9% at the age of 50 years (7.2% in women) to 8.4 at the age of 85 years (26.7% in women). As expected, probabilities increased with decreasing T-score for hip BMD. Cumulative utility loss from a clinical vertebral fracture was substantial and was 50-62% of that due to a hip fracture depending on age. When incidence of fractures in the population was weighted by disutility, all spine fractures accounted for more morbidity than hip fracture up to the age of 75 years. We conclude that vertebral fractures have a major personal and societal impact that needs to be recognised in algorithms for assessment of risk and in health economic strategies for osteoporosis.
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