| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Minelli, Caterina, et al.
(författare)
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Versailles project on advanced materials and standards (VAMAS) interlaboratory study on measuring the number concentration of colloidal gold nanoparticles
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nanoscale. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2040-3372 .- 2040-3364. ; 14, s. 4690-4704
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the outcome of a large international interlaboratory study of the measurement of particle number concentration of colloidal nanoparticles, project 10 of the technical working area 34, "Nanoparticle Populations" of the Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards (VAMAS). A total of 50 laboratories delivered results for the number concentration of 30 nm gold colloidal nanoparticles measured using particle tracking analysis (PTA), single particle inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (spICP-MS), ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) light spectroscopy, centrifugal liquid sedimentation (CLS) and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The study provides quantitative data to evaluate the repeatability of these methods and their reproducibility in the measurement of number concentration of model nanoparticle systems following a common measurement protocol. We find that the population-averaging methods of SAXS, CLS and UV-Vis have high measurement repeatability and reproducibility, with between-labs variability of 2.6%, 11% and 1.4% respectively. However, results may be significantly biased for reasons including inaccurate material properties whose values are used to compute the number concentration. Particle-counting method results are less reproducibile than population-averaging methods, with measured between-labs variability of 68% and 46% for PTA and spICP-MS respectively. This study provides the stakeholder community with important comparative data to underpin measurement reproducibility and method validation for number concentration of nanoparticles.
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| 5. |
- Bilde, M., et al.
(författare)
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Saturation Vapor Pressures and Transition Enthalpies of Low-Volatility Organic Molecules of Atmospheric Relevance: From Dicarboxylic Acids to Complex Mixtures
- 2015
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Ingår i: Chemical Reviews. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0009-2665 .- 1520-6890. ; 115:10, s. 4115-4156
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- There are a number of techniques that can be used that differ in terms of whether they fundamentally probe the equilibrium and the temperature range over which they can be applied. The series of homologous, straight-chain dicarboxylic acids have received much attention over the past decade given their atmospheric relevance, commercial availability, and low saturation vapor pressures, thus making them ideal test compounds. Uncertainties in the solid-state saturation vapor pressures obtained from individual methodologies are typically on the order of 50-100%, but the differences between saturation vapor pressures obtained with different methods are approximately 1-4 orders of magnitude, with the spread tending to increase as the saturation vapor pressure decreases. Some of the dicarboxylic acids can exist with multiple solid-state structures that have distinct saturation vapor pressures. Furthermore, the samples on which measurements are performed may actually exist as amorphous subcooled liquids rather than solid crystalline compounds, again with consequences for the measured saturation vapor pressures, since the subcooled liquid phase will have a higher saturation vapor pressure than the crystalline solid phase. Compounds with equilibrium vapor pressures in this range will exhibit the greatest sensitivities in terms of their gas to particle partitioning to uncertainties in their saturation vapor pressures, with consequent impacts on the ability of explicit and semiexplicit chemical models to simulate secondary organic aerosol formation.
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| 6. |
- Trydeman Knudsen, Marie, et al.
(författare)
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Characterization factors for land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment based on direct measures of plant species richness in European farmland in the ‘Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forest`.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 580, s. 358-366
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a widely used tool to assess environmental sustainability of products. The LCAshould optimally cover themost important environmental impact categories such as climate change, eutrophicationand biodiversity. However, impacts on biodiversity are seldom included in LCAs due tomethodological limitationsand lack of appropriate characterization factors. When assessing organic agricultural products theomission of biodiversity in LCA is problematic, because organic systems are characterized by higher species richnessat field level compared to the conventional systems. Thus, there is a need for characterization factors to estimateland use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment that are able to distinguish between organic andconventional agricultural land use that can be used to supplement and validate the few currently suggested characterization factors. Based on a unique dataset derived fromfield recording of plant species diversity in farmlandacross six European countries, the present study provides newmidpoint occupation Characterization Factors(CF) expressing the Potentially Disappeared Fraction (PDF) to estimate land use impacts on biodiversity in the‘Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forest’ biome in Europe. The method is based on calculation of plant specieson randomly selected test sites in the biome and enables the calculation of characterization factors that are sensitiveto particular types ofmanagement.While species richness differs between countries, the calculated CFs areable to distinguish between different land use types (pastures (monocotyledons or mixed), arable land andhedges) and management practices (organic or conventional production systems) across countries. The new occupationCFs can be used to supplement or validate the fewcurrent CF's and can be applied in LCAs of agriculturalproducts to assess land use impacts on species richness in the ‘Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forest’ biome.
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| 7. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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| 8. |
- Brander, Søren, et al.
(författare)
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Biochemical evidence of both copper chelation and oxygenase activity at the histidine brace
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322 .- 2045-2322. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lytic polysaccharide monooxygenase (LPMO) and copper binding protein CopC share a similar mononuclear copper site. This site is defined by an N-terminal histidine and a second internal histidine side chain in a configuration called the histidine brace. To understand better the determinants of reactivity, the biochemical and structural properties of a well-described cellulose-specific LPMO from Thermoascus aurantiacus (TaAA9A) is compared with that of CopC from Pseudomonas fluorescens (PfCopC) and with the LPMO-like protein Bim1 from Cryptococcus neoformans. PfCopC is not reduced by ascorbate but is a very strong Cu(II) chelator due to residues that interacts with the N-terminus. This first biochemical characterization of Bim1 shows that it is not redox active, but very sensitive to H2O2, which accelerates the release of Cu ions from the protein. TaAA9A oxidizes ascorbate at a rate similar to free copper but through a mechanism that produce fewer reactive oxygen species. These three biologically relevant examples emphasize the diversity in how the proteinaceous environment control reactivity of Cu with O2.
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| 9. |
- Eriksson, Dennis, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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A logarithmic interpretation of Edixhoven's jumps for Jacobians
- 2015
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Ingår i: Advances in Mathematics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0001-8708 .- 1090-2082. ; 279, s. 532-574
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Let A be an abelian variety over a discretely valued field. Edixhoven has defined a filtration on the special fiber of the Neron model of A that measures the behavior of the Neron model under tame base change. We interpret the jumps in this filtration in terms of lattices of logarithmic differential forms in the case where A is the Jacobian of a curve C, and we give a compact explicit formula for the jumps in terms of the combinatorial reduction data of C.
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| 10. |
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