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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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- Jung, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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A comparison of very old patients admitted to intensive care unit after acute versus elective surgery or intervention
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of critical care. - : W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC. - 0883-9441 .- 1557-8615. ; 52, s. 141-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We aimed to evaluate differences in outcome between patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) after elective versus acute surgery in a multinational cohort of very old patients (80 years; VIP). Predictors of mortality, with special emphasis on frailty, were assessed.Methods: In total, 5063 VIPs were induded in this analysis, 922 were admitted after elective surgery or intervention, 4141 acutely, with 402 after acute surgery. Differences were calculated using Mann-Whitney-U test and Wilcoxon test. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess associations with mortality.Results: Compared patients admitted after acute surgery, patients admitted after elective surgery suffered less often from frailty as defined as CFS (28% vs 46%; p < 0.001), evidenced lower SOFA scores (4 +/- 5 vs 7 +/- 7; p < 0.001). Presence of frailty (CFS >4) was associated with significantly increased mortality both in elective surgery patients (7% vs 12%; p = 0.01), in acute surgery (7% vs 12%; p = 0.02).Conclusions: VIPs admitted to ICU after elective surgery evidenced favorable outcome over patients after acute surgery even after correction for relevant confounders. Frailty might be used to guide clinicians in risk stratification in both patients admitted after elective and acute surgery.
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- Ospel, Johanna M., et al.
(författare)
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What is a Challenging Clot? : A DELPHI Consensus Statement from the CLOTS 7.0 Summit
- 2023
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Ingår i: Clinical Neuroradiology. - 1869-1439 .- 1869-1447. ; 33:4, s. 1007-1016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Predicting a challenging clot when performing mechanical thrombectomy in acute stroke can be difficult. One reason for this difficulty is a lack of agreement on how to precisely define these clots. We explored the opinions of stroke thrombectomy and clot research experts regarding challenging clots, defined as difficult to recanalize clots by endovascular approaches, and clot/patient features that may be indicative of such clots. Methods: A modified DELPHI technique was used before and during the CLOTS 7.0 Summit, which included experts in thrombectomy and clot research from different specialties. The first round included open-ended questions and the second and final rounds each consisted of 30 closed-ended questions, 29 on various clinical and clot features, and 1 on number of passes before switching techniques. Consensus was defined as agreement ≥ 50%. Features with consensus and rated ≥ 3 out of 4 on the certainty scale were included in the definition of a challenging clot. Results: Three DELPHI rounds were performed. Panelists achieved consensus on 16/30 questions, of which 8 were rated 3 or 4 on the certainty scale, namely white-colored clots (mean certainty score 3.1), calcified clots under histology (3.7) and imaging (3.7), stiff clots (3.0), sticky/adherent clots (3.1), hard clots (3.1), difficult to pass clots (3.1) and clots that are resistant to pulling (3.0). Most panelists considered switching endovascular treatment (EVT) techniques after 2–3 unsuccessful attempts. Conclusion: This DELPHI consensus identified 8 distinct features of a challenging clot. The varying degree of certainty amongst the panelists emphasizes the need for more pragmatic studies to enable accurate a priori identification of such occlusions prior to EVT.
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- Brinjikji, Waleed, et al.
(författare)
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Endotheliitis and cytokine storm as a mechanism of clot formation in COVID-19 ischemic stroke patients: A histopathologic study of retrieved clots.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Interventional neuroradiology : journal of peritherapeutic neuroradiology, surgical procedures and related neurosciences. - 2385-2011.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies during the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated an association between COVID-19 virus infection and the development of acute ischemic stroke, particularly large vessel occlusion (LVO). Studying the characteristics and immunohistochemistry of retrieved stroke emboli during mechanical thrombectomy for LVO may offer insights into the pathogenesis of LVO in COVID-19 patients. We examined retrieved COVID-19 emboli from the STRIP, EXCELLENT, and RESTORE registries and compared their characteristics to a control group.We identified COVID-positive LVO patients from the STRIP, RESTORE, and EXCELLENT studies who underwent mechanical thrombectomy. These patients were matched to a control group controlling for stroke etiology based on Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment criteria. All clots were stained with Martius Scarlet Blue (MSB) along with immunohistochemistry for interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), von Willebrand factor (vWF), CD66b, fibrinogen, and citrullinated Histone H3. Clot composition was compared between groups.Nineteen COVID-19-positive patients and 38 controls were included. COVID-19-positive patients had a significantly higher percentage of CRP and vWF. There was no difference in IL-6, fibrin, CD66b, or citrullinated Histone H3 between groups. Based on MSB staining, there was no statistically significant difference regarding the percentage of red blood cells, white blood cells, fibrin, and platelets.Our study found higher concentrations of CRP and vWF in retrieved clots of COVID-19-positive stroke patients compared to COVID-19-negative controls. These findings support the potential role of systemic inflammation as indicated by elevated CRP and endothelial injury as indicated by elevated vWF as precipitating factors in thrombus development in these patients.
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- Fitzgerald, Seán, et al.
(författare)
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Large Artery Atherosclerotic Clots are Larger than Clots of other Stroke Etiologies and have Poorer Recanalization rates.
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases : the official journal of National Stroke Association. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-8511. ; 30:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a paucity of knowledge in the literature relating to the extent of clot burden and stroke etiology. In this study, we measured the Extracted Clot Area (ECA) retrieved during endovascular treatment (EVT) and investigated relationships with suspected etiology, administration of intravenous thrombolysis and recanalization.As part of the multi-institutional RESTORE registry, the ECA retrieved during mechanical thrombectomy was quantified using ImageJ. The effect of stroke etiology (Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), Cardioembolism, Cryptogenic and other) and recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) on ECA and recanalization outcome (mTICI) was assessed. Successful recanalization was described as mTICI 2c-3.A total of 550 patients who underwent EVT with any clot retrieved were included in the study. The ECA was significantly larger in the LAA group compared to all other etiologies. The average ECA size of each etiology was; LAA=109 mm2, Cardioembolic=52 mm2, Cryptogenic=47 mm2 and Other=52 mm2 (p=0.014*). LAA patients also had a significantly poorer rate of successful recanalization (mTICI 2c-3) compared to all other etiologies (p=0.003*). The administration of tPA was associated with a smaller ECA in both LAA (p=0.007*) and cardioembolic (p=0.035*) groups.The ECA of LAA clots was double the size of all other etiologies and this is associated with a lower rate of successful recanalization in LAA stroke subtype. rtPA administration prior to thrombectomy was associated with reduced ECA in LAA and CE clots.
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