| 1. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 2. |
- Carleer, M. R., et al.
(författare)
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Validation of water vapour profiles from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)
- 2008
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion: An Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union. ; 8:2, s. 4499-4559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) mission was launched in August 2003 to sound the atmosphere by solar occultation. Water vapour (H2O), one of the most important molecules for climate and atmospheric chemistry, is one of the key species provided by the two principal instruments, the infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the MAESTRO UV-Visible spectrometer (ACE-MAESTRO). The first instrument performs measurements on several lines in the 1362–2137 cm−1 range, from which vertically resolved H2O concentration profiles are retrieved, from 7 to 90 km altitude. ACE-MAESTRO measures profiles using the water absorption band in the near infrared part of the spectrum at 926.0–969.7 nm. This paper presents a comprehensive validation of the ACE-FTS profiles. We have compared the H2O volume mixing ratio profiles with space-borne (SAGE II, HALOE, POAM III, MIPAS, SMR) observations and measurements from balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometers and a ground based lidar. We show that the ACE-FTS measurements provide H2O profiles with small retrieval uncertainties in the stratosphere (better than 5% from 15 to 70 km, gradually increasing above). The situation is unclear in the upper troposphere, due mainly to the high variability of the water vapour volume mixing ratio in this region. A new water vapour data product from the ACE-MAESTRO (Measurement of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) is also presented and initial comparisons with ACE-FTS are discussed.
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| 3. |
- Keogan, Katharine, et al.
(författare)
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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:4, s. 313-318
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity(1), and is often sensitive to climatic conditions(2). Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey(3). This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers(4). However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction(5). Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr(-1)) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days degrees C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources(2).
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