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- James, SL, et al.
(författare)
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Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 96-114
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.MethodsWe reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).FindingsIn 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).InterpretationInjuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
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- James, SL, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 125-153
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.MethodsIn this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.ResultsGBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.ConclusionsGBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
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- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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First Observation of PeV-Energy Neutrinos with IceCube
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 111:2, s. 021103-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the observation of two neutrino-induced events which have an estimated deposited energy in the IceCube detector of 1.04 +/- 0.16 and 1.14 +/- 0.17 PeV, respectively, the highest neutrino energies observed so far. These events are consistent with fully contained particle showers induced by neutral-current nu(e,mu,tau) ((nu) over bar (e,mu,tau)) or charged-current nu(e) ((nu) over bar (e)) interactions within the IceCube detector. The events were discovered in a search for ultrahigh energy neutrinos using data corresponding to 615.9 days effective live time. The expected number of atmospheric background is 0.082 +/- 0.004(stat)(-0.057)(+0.041)(syst). The probability of observing two or more candidate events under the atmospheric background-only hypothesis is 2.9 x 10(-3) (2.8 sigma) taking into account the uncertainty on the expected number of background events. These two events could be a first indication of an astrophysical neutrino flux; the moderate significance, however, does not permit a definitive conclusion at this time.
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- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of Cosmic-Ray Anisotropy with the Icetop Air Shower Array
- 2013
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 765:1, s. 55-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the observation of anisotropy in the arrival direction distribution of cosmic rays at PeV energies. The analysis is based on data taken between 2009 and 2012 with the IceTop air shower array at the south pole. IceTop, an integral part of the IceCube detector, is sensitive to cosmic rays between 100 TeV and 1 EeV. With the current size of the IceTop data set, searches for anisotropy at the 10(-3) level can, for the first time, be extended to PeV energies. We divide the data set into two parts with median energies of 400 TeV and 2 PeV, respectively. In the low energy band, we observe a strong deficit with an angular size of about 30 degrees and an amplitude of (-1.58 +/- 0.46(stat) +/- 0.52(sys)) x 10(-3) at a location consistent with previous observations of cosmic rays with the IceCube neutrino detector. The study of the high energy band shows that the anisotropy persists to PeV energies and increases in amplitude to (-3.11 +/- 0.38(stat) +/- 0.96(sys)) x 10(-3).
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| 9. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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South Pole glacial climate reconstruction from multi-borehole laser particulate stratigraphy
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Glaciology. - 0022-1430 .- 1727-5652. ; 59:218, s. 1117-1128
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory and its prototype, AMANDA, were built in South Pole ice, using powerful hot-water drills to cleanly bore >100 holes to depths up to 2500 m. The construction of these particle physics detectors provided a unique opportunity to examine the deep ice sheet using a variety of novel techniques. We made high-resolution particulate profiles with a laser dust logger in eight of the boreholes during detector commissioning between 2004 and 2010. The South Pole laser logs are among the most clearly resolved measurements of Antarctic dust strata during the last glacial period and can be used to reconstruct paleoclimate records in exceptional detail. Here we use manual and algorithmic matching to synthesize our South Pole measurements with ice-core and logging data from Dome C, East Antarctica. We derive impurity concentration, precision chronology, annual-layer thickness, local spatial variability, and identify several widespread volcanic ash depositions useful for dating. We also examine the interval around similar to 74 ka recently isolated with radiometric dating to bracket the Toba (Sumatra) supereruption.
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| 10. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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The Detection Of A Sn Iin In Optical Follow-Up Observations Of Icecube Neutrino Events
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 811:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube neutrino observatory pursues a follow-up program selecting interesting neutrino events in real-time and issuing alerts for electromagnetic follow-up observations. In 2012 March, the most significant neutrino alert during the first three years of operation was issued by IceCube. In the follow-up observations performed by the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), a Type IIn supernova (SN IIn) PTF12csy was found 0.degrees 2 away from the neutrino alert direction, with an error radius of 0.degrees 54. It has a redshift of z = 0.0684, corresponding to a luminosity distance of about 300 Mpc and the Pan-STARRS1 survey shows that its explosion time was at least 158 days (in host galaxy rest frame) before the neutrino alert, so that a causal connection is unlikely. The a posteriori significance of the chance detection of both the neutrinos and the SN at any epoch is 2.2 sigma within IceCube's 2011/12 data acquisition season. Also, a complementary neutrino analysis reveals no long-term signal over the course of one year. Therefore, we consider the SN detection coincidental and the neutrinos uncorrelated to the SN. However, the SN is unusual and interesting by itself: it is luminous and energetic, bearing strong resemblance to the SN IIn 2010jl, and shows signs of interaction of the SN ejecta with a dense circumstellar medium. High-energy neutrino emission is expected in models of diffusive shock acceleration, but at a low, non-detectable level for this specific SN. In this paper, we describe the SN PTF12csy and present both the neutrino and electromagnetic data, as well as their analysis.
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