| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Fortier, A., et al.
(författare)
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CHEOPS in-flight performance: A comprehensive look at the first 3.5 yr of operations
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 687
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Since the discovery of the first exoplanet almost three decades ago, the number of known exoplanets has increased dramatically. By beginning of the 2000s it was clear that dedicated facilities to advance our studies in this field were needed. The CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is a space telescope specifically designed to monitor transiting exoplanets orbiting bright stars. In September 2023, CHEOPS completed its nominal mission duration of 3.5 yr and remains in excellent operational conditions. As a testament to this, the mission has been extended until the end of 2026. Aims. Scientific and instrumental data have been collected throughout in-orbit commissioning and nominal operations, enabling a comprehensive analysis of the missiona's performance. In this article, we present the results of this analysis with a twofold goal. First, we aim to inform the scientific community about the present status of the mission and what can be expected as the instrument ages. Secondly, we intend for this publication to serve as a legacy document for future missions, providing insights and lessons learned from the successful operation of CHEOPS. Methods. To evaluate the instrument performance in flight, we developed a comprehensive monitoring and characterisation (M&C) programme. It consists of dedicated observations that allow us to characterise the instrumenta's response and continuously monitor its behaviour. In addition to the standard collection of nominal science and housekeeping data, these observations provide valuable input for detecting, modelling, and correcting instrument systematics, discovering and addressing anomalies, and comparing the instrumenta's actual performance with expectations. Results. The precision of the CHEOPS measurements has enabled the mission objectives to be met and exceeded. The satellitea's performance remains stable and reliable, ensuring accurate data collection throughout its operational life. Careful modelling of the instrumental systematics allows the data quality to be significantly improved during the light curve analysis phase, resulting in more precise scientific measurements. Conclusions. CHEOPS is compliant with the driving scientific requirements of the mission. Although visible, the ageing of the instrument has not affected the missiona's performance. The satellitea's capabilities remain robust, and we are confident that we will continue to acquire high-quality data during the mission extension.
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| 5. |
- Leleu, A., et al.
(författare)
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Six transiting planets and a chain of Laplace resonances in TOI-178
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 649
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Determining the architecture of multi-planetary systems is one of the cornerstones of understanding planet formation and evolution. Resonant systems are especially important as the fragility of their orbital configuration ensures that no significant scattering or collisional event has taken place since the earliest formation phase when the parent protoplanetary disc was still present. In this context, TOI-178 has been the subject of particular attention since the first TESS observations hinted at the possible presence of a near 2:3:3 resonant chain. Here we report the results of observations from CHEOPS, ESPRESSO, NGTS, and SPECULOOS with the aim of deciphering the peculiar orbital architecture of the system. We show that TOI-178 harbours at least six planets in the super-Earth to mini-Neptune regimes, with radii ranging from 1.152 to 2.87 Earth radii and periods of 1.91, 3.24, 6.56, 9.96, 15.23, and 20.71 days. All planets but the innermost one form a 2:4:6:9:12 chain of Laplace resonances, and the planetary densities show important variations from planet to planet, jumping from 1.02 to 0.177 times the Earth's density between planets c and d. Using Bayesian interior structure retrieval models, we show that the amount of gas in the planets does not vary in a monotonous way, contrary to what one would expect from simple formation and evolution models and unlike other known systems in a chain of Laplace resonances. The brightness of TOI-178 (H = 8.76 mag, J = 9.37 mag, V = 11.95 mag) allows for a precise characterisation of its orbital architecture as well as of the physical nature of the six presently known transiting planets it harbours. The peculiar orbital configuration and the diversity in average density among the planets in the system will enable the study of interior planetary structures and atmospheric evolution, providing important clues on the formation of super-Earths and mini-Neptunes. -0.070 -0.13 -0.23 -0.061 +0.073 +0.14 +0.28 +0.055
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| 6. |
- Hori, Yasunori, et al.
(författare)
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The Discovery and Follow-up of Four Transiting Short-period Sub-Neptunes Orbiting M Dwarfs
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 167:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sub-Neptunes with radii of 2-3 R ⊕ are intermediate in size between rocky planets and Neptune-sized planets. The orbital properties and bulk compositions of transiting sub-Neptunes provide clues to the formation and evolution of close-in small planets. In this paper, we present the discovery and follow-up of four sub-Neptunes orbiting M dwarfs (TOI-782, TOI-1448, TOI-2120, and TOI-2406), three of which were newly validated by ground-based follow-up observations and statistical analyses. TOI-782 b, TOI-1448 b, TOI-2120 b, and TOI-2406 b have radii of R p = 2.740 − 0.079 + 0.082 R ⊕ , 2.769 − 0.068 + 0.073 R ⊕ , 2.120 ± 0.067 R ⊕, and 2.830 − 0.066 + 0.068 R ⊕ and orbital periods of P = 8.02, 8.11, 5.80, and 3.08 days, respectively. Doppler monitoring with the Subaru/InfraRed Doppler instrument led to 2σ upper limits on the masses of <19.1 M ⊕, <19.5 M ⊕, <6.8 M ⊕, and <15.6 M ⊕ for TOI-782 b, TOI-1448 b, TOI-2120 b, and TOI-2406 b, respectively. The mass-radius relationship of these four sub-Neptunes testifies to the existence of volatile material in their interiors. These four sub-Neptunes, which are located above the so-called “radius valley,” are likely to retain a significant atmosphere and/or an icy mantle on the core, such as a water world. We find that at least three of the four sub-Neptunes (TOI-782 b, TOI-2120 b, and TOI-2406 b), orbiting M dwarfs older than 1 Gyr, are likely to have eccentricities of e ∼ 0.2-0.3. The fact that tidal circularization of their orbits is not achieved over 1 Gyr suggests inefficient tidal dissipation in their interiors.
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| 7. |
- Berne, Olivier, et al.
(författare)
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PDRs4All : A JWST Early Release Science Program on Radiative Feedback from Massive Stars
- 2022
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 134:1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Massive stars disrupt their natal molecular cloud material through radiative and mechanical feedback processes. These processes have profound effects on the evolution of interstellar matter in our Galaxy and throughout the universe, from the era of vigorous star formation at redshifts of 1-3 to the present day. The dominant feedback processes can be probed by observations of the Photo-Dissociation Regions (PDRs) where the far-ultraviolet photons of massive stars create warm regions of gas and dust in the neutral atomic and molecular gas. PDR emission provides a unique tool to study in detail the physical and chemical processes that are relevant for most of the mass in inter- and circumstellar media including diffuse clouds, proto-planetary disks, and molecular cloud surfaces, globules, planetary nebulae, and star-forming regions. PDR emission dominates the infrared (IR) spectra of star-forming galaxies. Most of the Galactic and extragalactic observations obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will therefore arise in PDR emission. In this paper we present an Early Release Science program using the MIRI, NIRSpec, and NIRCam instruments dedicated to the observations of an emblematic and nearby PDR: the Orion Bar. These early JWST observations will provide template data sets designed to identify key PDR characteristics in JWST observations. These data will serve to benchmark PDR models and extend them into the JWST era. We also present the Science-Enabling products that we will provide to the community. These template data sets and Science-Enabling products will guide the preparation of future proposals on star-forming regions in our Galaxy and beyond and will facilitate data analysis and interpretation of forthcoming JWST observations.
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| 8. |
- Morello, Giuseppe, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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TOI-1442 b and TOI-2445 b: Two potentially rocky ultra-short period planets around M dwarfs
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 673
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Exoplanets with orbital periods of less than one day are known as ultra-short period (USP) planets. They are relatively rare products of planetary formation and evolution processes, but especially favourable for characterisation with current planet detection methods. At the time of writing, 125 USP planets have already been confirmed. Aims. Our aim is to validate the planetary nature of two new transiting planet candidates around M dwarfs announced by the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), registered as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) TOI-1442.01 and TOI-2445.01. Methods. We used TESS data, ground-based photometric light curves, and Subaru/IRD spectrograph radial velocity (RV) measurements to validate both planetary candidates and to establish their physical properties. Results. TOI-1442 b is a validated exoplanet with an orbital period of P = 0.4090682 ± 0.0000004 day, a radius of Rp = 1.15 ± 0.06 R☉, and equilibrium temperature of Tp,eq = 1357+−4942 K. TOI-2445 b is also validated with an orbital period of P = 0.3711286 ± 0.0000004 day, a radius of Rp = 1.33 ± 0.09 R☉, and equilibrium temperature of Tp,eq = 1330+−6156 K. Their physical properties align with current empirical trends and formation theories of USP planets. Based on the RV measurements, we set 3σ upper mass limits of 8 M☉ and 20 M☉, thus confirming the non-stellar, sub-Jovian nature of both transiting objects. More RV measurements will be needed to constrain the planetary masses and mean densities, and the predicted presence of outer planetary companions. These targets extend the small sample of USP planets orbiting around M dwarfs up to 21 members. They are also among the 20 most suitable terrestrial planets for atmospheric characterisation via secondary eclipse with the James Webb Space Telescope, according to a widespread emission spectroscopy metric.
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| 9. |
- Tapia-Ruiz, Nuria, et al.
(författare)
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2021 roadmap for sodium-ion batteries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2515-7655. ; 3:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing concerns regarding the sustainability of lithium sources, due to their limited availability and consequent expected price increase, have raised awareness of the importance of developing alternative energy-storage candidates that can sustain the ever-growing energy demand. Furthermore, limitations on the availability of the transition metals used in the manufacturing of cathode materials, together with questionable mining practices, are driving development towards more sustainable elements. Given the uniformly high abundance and cost-effectiveness of sodium, as well as its very suitable redox potential (close to that of lithium), sodium-ion battery technology offers tremendous potential to be a counterpart to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in different application scenarios, such as stationary energy storage and low-cost vehicles. This potential is reflected by the major investments that are being made by industry in a wide variety of markets and in diverse material combinations. Despite the associated advantages of being a drop-in replacement for LIBs, there are remarkable differences in the physicochemical properties between sodium and lithium that give rise to different behaviours, for example, different coordination preferences in compounds, desolvation energies, or solubility of the solid-electrolyte interphase inorganic salt components. This demands a more detailed study of the underlying physical and chemical processes occurring in sodium-ion batteries and allows great scope for groundbreaking advances in the field, from lab-scale to scale-up. This roadmap provides an extensive review by experts in academia and industry of the current state of the art in 2021 and the different research directions and strategies currently underway to improve the performance of sodium-ion batteries. The aim is to provide an opinion with respect to the current challenges and opportunities, from the fundamental properties to the practical applications of this technology.
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| 10. |
- Huang, Chelsea X., et al.
(författare)
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TESS Spots a Hot Jupiter with an Inner Transiting Neptune
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 892:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hot Jupiters are rarely accompanied by other planets within a factor of a few in orbital distance. Previously, only two such systems have been found. Here, we report the discovery of a third system using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The host star, TOI-1130, is an eleventh magnitude K-dwarf in Gaia G-band. It has two transiting planets: a Neptune-sized planet (3.65 ± 0.10 R\oplus) with a 4.1 days period, and a hot Jupiter (1.50-0.22+0.27 RJ) with an 8.4 days period. Precise radial-velocity observations show that the mass of the hot Jupiter is 0.974-0.044+0.043 MJ. For the inner Neptune, the data provide only an upper limit on the mass of 0.17 MJ (3σ). Nevertheless, we are confident that the inner planet is real, based on follow-up ground-based photometry and adaptive-optics imaging that rule out other plausible sources of the TESS transit signal. The unusual planetary architecture of and the brightness of the host star make TOI-1130 a good test case for planet formation theories, and an attractive target for future spectroscopic observations.
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