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Sökning: WFRF:(Epstein Howard E.)

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1.
  • Jacobs, Kevin B, et al. (författare)
  • Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - New York : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:6, s. 651-658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.
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2.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare)
  • STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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3.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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4.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing: Open Access Journals / IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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5.
  • Machiela, Mitchell J., et al. (författare)
  • Characterization of Large Structural Genetic Mosaicism in Human Autosomes
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 96:3, s. 487-497
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Analyses of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data have revealed that detectable genetic mosaicism involving large (>2 Mb) structural autosomal alterations occurs in a fraction of individuals. We present results for a set of 24,849 genotyped individuals (total GWAS set II [TGSII]) in whom 341 large autosomal abnormalities were observed in 168 (0.68%) individuals. Merging data from the new TGSII set with data from two prior reports (the Gene-Environment Association Studies and the total GWAS set I) generated a large dataset of 127,179 individuals; we then conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the patterns of detectable autosomal mosaicism (n = 1,315 events in 925 [0.73%] individuals). Restricting to events >2 Mb in size, we observed an increase in event frequency as event size decreased. The combined results underscore that the rate of detectable mosaicism increases with age (p value = 5.5 x 3 10(-31)) and is higher in men (p value = 0.002) but lower in participants of African ancestry (p value = 0.003). In a subset of 47 individuals from whom serial samples were collected up to 6 years apart, complex changes were noted over time and showed an overall increase in the proportion of mosaic cells as age increased. Our large combined sample allowed for a unique ability to characterize detectable genetic mosaicism involving large structural events and strengthens the emerging evidence of non-random erosion of the genome in the aging population.
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6.
  • Myers-Smith, Isla H., et al. (författare)
  • Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Research. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:2, s. 106-117
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greening and browning trends are more complex, variable and inherently scale-dependent than previously thought. Here we summarize the complexities of observing and interpreting high-latitude greening to identify priorities for future research. Incorporating satellite and proximal remote sensing with in-situ data, while accounting for uncertainties and scale issues, will advance the study of past, present and future Arctic vegetation change.
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7.
  • Walker, Donald A., et al. (författare)
  • Cumulative Effects of Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate. - New York : Springer Netherlands. - 9789048191178 - 9789048191185 ; , s. 207-236
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • The Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia is undergoing some of the most rapid land-cover and land-use changes in the Arctic due to a combination of gas development, reindeer herding, and climate change. Unusual geological conditions (nutrient-poor sands, massive ground ice and extensive landslides) exacerbate the impacts. These changes will likely increase markedly as transportation corridors are built to transport the gas to market. Understanding the nature, extent, causes and consequences (i.e., the cumulative effects) of the past and ongoing rapid changes on the Yamal is important for effective, long-term decision-making and planning. The cumulative effects to vegetation are the focus of this chapter because the plants are a critical component of the Yamal landscape that support the indigenous Nenets people and their reindeer and also protect the underlying ice-rich permafrost from melting. We are using a combination of ground-based studies (a transect of live locations across the Yamal), remote-sensing studies, and analyses of Nenets land-use activities to develop vegetation-change models that can be used to help anticipate future states of the tundra and how those changes might affect traditional reindeer herding practices and the thermal state of the permafrost. This chapter provides an overview of the approach, some early results, and recommendations for expanding the concept of cumulative-effects analysis to include examining the simultaneous and interactive effects of multiple drivers of change.
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8.
  • Walker, Donald A., et al. (författare)
  • Vegetation on mesic loamy and sandy soils along a 1700-km maritime Eurasia Arctic Transect
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Applied Vegetation Science. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1402-2001 .- 1654-109X. ; 22:1, s. 150-167
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Questions: How do plant communities on zonal loamy vs. sandy soils vary across the full maritime Arctic bioclimate gradient? How are plant communities of these areas related to existing vegetation units of the European Vegetation Classification? What are the main environmental factors controlling transitions of vegetation along the bioclimate gradient?Location: 1700-km Eurasia Arctic Transect (EAT), Yamal Peninsula and Franz Josef Land (FJL), Russia.Methods: The Braun-Blanquet approach was used to sample mesic loamy and sandy plots on 14 total study sites at six locations, one in each of the five Arctic bioclimate subzones and the forest-tundra transition. Trends in soil factors, cover of plant growth forms (PGFs) and species diversity were examined along the summer warmth index (SWI) gradient and on loamy and sandy soils. Classification and ordination were used to group the plots and to test relationships between vegetation and environmental factors.Results: Clear, mostly non-linear, trends occurred for soil factors, vegetation structure and species diversity along the climate gradient. Cluster analysis revealed seven groups with clear relationships to subzone and soil texture. Clusters at the ends of the bioclimate gradient (forest-tundra and polar desert) had many highly diagnostic taxa, whereas clusters from the Yamal Peninsula had only a few. Axis 1 of a DCA was strongly correlated with latitude and summer warmth; Axis 2 was strongly correlated with soil moisture, percentage sand and landscape age.Conclusions: Summer temperature and soil texture have clear effects on tundra canopy structure and species composition, with consequences for ecosystem properties. Each layer of the plant canopy has a distinct region of peak abundance along the bioclimate gradient. The major vegetation types are weakly aligned with described classes of the European Vegetation Checklist, indicating a continuous floristic gradient rather than distinct subzone regions. The study provides ground-based vegetation data for satellite-based interpretations of the western maritime Eurasian Arctic, and the first vegetation data from Hayes Island, Franz Josef Land, which is strongly separated geographically and floristically from the rest of the gradient and most susceptible to on-going climate change.
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9.
  • Fensholt, Rasmus, et al. (författare)
  • Greenness in semi-arid areas across the globe 1981-2007 - an Earth Observing Satellite based analysis of trends and drivers
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Remote Sensing of Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0034-4257. ; 121, s. 144-158
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Semi-arid areas, defined as those areas of the world where water is an important limitation for plant growth, have become the subject of increased interest due to the impacts of current global changes and sustainability of human lifestyles. While many ground-based reports of declining vegetation productivity have been published over the last decades, a number of recent publications have shown a nuanced and, for some regions, positive picture. With this background, the paper provides an analysis of trends in vegetation greenness of semi-arid areas using AVHRR GIMMS from 1981 to 2007. The vegetation index dataset is used as a proxy for vegetation productivity and trends are analyzed for characterization of changes in semi-arid vegetation greenness. Calculated vegetation trends are analyzed with gridded data on potential climatic constraints to plant growth to explore possible causes of the observed changes. An analysis of changes in the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness and climatic drivers is conducted for selected regions to further understand the causes of observed inter-annual vegetation changes in semi-arid areas across the globe. It is concluded that semi-arid areas, across the globe, on average experience an increase in greenness (0.015 NDVI units over the period of analysis). Further it is observed that increases in greenness are found both in semi-arid areas where precipitation is the dominating limiting factor for plant production (0.019 NDVI units) and in semi-arid areas where air temperature is the primarily growth constraint (0.013 NDVI units). Finally, in the analysis of changes in the intra-annual variation of greenness it is found that seemingly similar increases in greenness over the study period may have widely different explanations. This implies that current generalizations, claiming that land degradation is ongoing in semi-arid areas worldwide, are not supported by the satellite based analysis of vegetation greenness. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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10.
  • Loranty, Michael M., et al. (författare)
  • Reviews and syntheses : Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1726-4170. ; 15:17, s. 5287-5313
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soils in Arctic and boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, a portion of which may be released as high-latitude soils warm. Some of the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost-climate feedback stems from complex interactions between ecosystem properties and soil thermal dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems fundamentally regulate the response of permafrost to climate change by influencing surface energy partitioning and the thermal properties of soil itself. Here we review how Arctic and boreal ecosystem processes influence thermal dynamics in permafrost soil and how these linkages may evolve in response to climate change. While many of the ecosystem characteristics and processes affecting soil thermal dynamics have been examined individually (e.g., vegetation, soil moisture, and soil structure), interactions among these processes are less understood. Changes in ecosystem type and vegetation characteristics will alter spatial patterns of interactions between climate and permafrost. In addition to shrub expansion, other vegetation responses to changes in climate and rapidly changing disturbance regimes will affect ecosystem surface energy partitioning in ways that are important for permafrost. Lastly, changes in vegetation and ecosystem distribution will lead to regional and global biophysical and biogeochemical climate feedbacks that may compound or offset local impacts on permafrost soils. Consequently, accurate prediction of the permafrost carbon climate feedback will require detailed understanding of changes in terrestrial ecosystem distribution and function, which depend on the net effects of multiple feedback processes operating across scales in space and time.
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