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- Heijnsdijk, E. A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Lifetime Benefits and Harms of Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer
- 2020
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Ingår i: Jnci-Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 112:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies conducted in Swedish populations have shown that men with lowest prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at ages 44-50 years and 60 years have very low risk of future distant metastasis or death from prostate cancer. This study investigates benefits and harms of screening strategies stratified by PSA levels. Methods: PSA levels and diagnosis patterns from two microsimulation models of prostate cancer progression, detection, and mortality were compared against results of the Malmo Preventive Project, which stored serum and tracked subsequent prostate cancer diagnoses for 25 years. The models predicted the harms (tests and overdiagnoses) and benefits (lives saved and life-years gained) of PSA-stratified screening strategies compared with biennial screening from age 45 years to age 69 years. Results: Compared with biennial screening for ages 45-69 years, lengthening screening intervals for men with PSA less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 45 years led to 46.8-47.0% fewer tests (range between models), 0.9-2.1% fewer overdiagnoses, and 3.1-3.8% fewer lives saved. Stopping screening when PSA was less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 60 years and older led to 12.8-16.0% fewer tests, 5.0-24.0% fewer overdiagnoses, and 5.0-13.1% fewer lives saved. Differences in model results can be partially explained by differences in assumptions about the link between PSA growth and the risk of disease progression. Conclusion: Relative to a biennial screening strategy, PSA-stratified screening strategies investigated in this study substantially reduced the testing burden and modestly reduced overdiagnosis while preserving most lives saved. Further research is needed to clarify the link between PSA growth and disease progression.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lange, J., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of cancer screening on metastasis: A prostate cancer case study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Medical Screening. - : SAGE Publications. - 0969-1413 .- 1475-5793. ; 28:4, s. 480-487
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Trials of cancer screening present results in terms of deaths prevented, but metastasis is also a key endpoint that screening seeks to prevent. We developed a framework for projecting overall (de novo and progressive) metastases prevented in a screening trial using prostate cancer screening as a case study. Methods Mechanistic simulation model in which screening shifts a fraction of cases that would be metastatic at diagnosis to being non-metastatic. This shift increases the incidence of non-overdiagnosed, organ-confined cases. We use estimates of the risk of metastatic progression for these cases to project how many progress to metastasis after diagnosis and tally the projected de novo and progressive metastatic cases with and without screening. We use data on stage shift from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and data on the risk of metastatic progression from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group-4 trial. We estimate the relative risk and absolute risk reductions in metastatic disease at diagnosis and compare these with reductions in overall metastases. Results Assuming no effect of screening beyond initial stage shift at diagnosis, the model projects a 43% reduction in metastasis at diagnosis but a 22% reduction in the cumulative probability of metastasis over 12 years in favor of screening. These results are consistent with the empirical findings from the ERSPC. Conclusion Any reduction in metastatic disease at diagnosis under screening is likely to be an overly optimistic predictor of the impact of screening on overall metastasis and disease-specific mortality.
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