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1.
  • Bruggmann, P., et al. (författare)
  • Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 5-33
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6358000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2106000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.
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2.
  • Razavi, H., et al. (författare)
  • The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21:Suppl. 1, s. 34-59
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.
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3.
  • Wedemeyer, H., et al. (författare)
  • Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 60-89
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.
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4.
  • Razavi, H., et al. (författare)
  • Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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6.
  • Burn, E., et al. (författare)
  • Deep phenotyping of 34,128 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an international network study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19. Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of COVID-19 patients helps with public health planning. Here, the authors use routinely-collected data from seven databases in three countries to describe the characteristics of >30,000 patients admitted with COVID-19 and compare them with those admitted for influenza in previous years.
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10.
  • Kamal, H., et al. (författare)
  • Long-Term Study of Hepatitis Delta Virus Infection at Secondary Care Centers: The Impact of Viremia on Liver-Related Outcomes
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Hepatology. - : Wiley-Interscience Publishers. - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 72:4, s. 1177-1190
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background and Aims Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection is associated with fast progression to liver cirrhosis and liver complications. Previous studies have, however, been mainly from tertiary care centers, with risk for referral bias toward patients with worse outcomes. Furthermore, the impact of HDV viremiaper seon liver-related outcomes is not really known outside the human immunodeficiency virus co-infection setting. We have therefore evaluated the long-term impact of HDV viremia on liver-related outcomes in a nationwide cohort of patients with hepatitis B and D co-infection, cared for at secondary care centers in Sweden. Approach and Results In total, 337 patients with anti-HDV positivity, including 233 patients with HDV RNA viremia and 91 without HDV viremia at baseline, were retrospectively studied, with a mean follow-up of 6.5 years (range, 0.5-33.1). The long-term risks for liver-related events (i.e., hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], hepatic decompensation, or liver-related death/transplantation) were assessed, using Cox regression analysis. The risk for liver-related events and HCC was 3.8-fold and 2.6-fold higher, respectively, in patients with HDV viremia compared with those without viremia, although the latter was not statistically significant. Among patients with HDV viremia with no baseline cirrhosis, the cumulative risk of being free of liver cirrhosis or liver-related events was 81.9% and 64.0% after 5 and 10 years of follow-up, respectively. This corresponds to an incidence rate of 0.04 cases per person-year. Conclusions HDV RNA viremia is associated with a 3.8-fold higher risk for liver-related outcomes. The prognosis was rather poor for patients with HDV viremia without cirrhosis at baseline, but it was nevertheless more benign than previous estimates from tertiary centers. Our findings may be of importance when making decisions about treatment and evaluating potential outcomes of upcoming antivirals against HDV.
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