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- Johansson, Christer, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of air pollution and health by changing commuting from car to bicycle
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 584-585, s. 55-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our study is based on individual data on people’s home and work addresses, as well as their age, sex and physical capacity, in order to establish realistic bicycle-travel distances. A transport model is used to single out data on commuting preferences in the County Stockholm. Our analysis shows there is a very large potential for reducing emissions and exposure if all car drivers living within a distance corresponding to a maximum of a 30 minute bicycle ride to work would change to commuting by bicycle. It would result in more than 111 000 new cyclists, corresponding to an increase of 209% compared to the current situation.Mean population exposure would be reduced by about 7% for both NOx and black carbon (BC) in the most densely populated area of the inner city of Stockholm. Applying a relative risk for NOx of 8% decrease in all-cause mortality associated with a 10 µg m-3 decrease in NOx, this corresponds to more than 449 (95% CI: 340 - 558) years of life saved annually for the Stockholm county area with 2.1 million inhabitants. This is more than double the effect of the reduced mortality estimated for the introduction of congestion charge in Stockholm in 2006. Using NO2 or BC as indicator of health impacts, we obtain 395 (95% CI: 172 - 617) and 185 (95% CI: 158 - 209) years of life saved for the population, respectively. The calculated exposure of BC and its corresponding impacts on mortality are likely underestimated. With this in mind the estimates using NOx, NO2 and BC show quite similar health impacts considering the 95% confidence intervals.
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| 2. |
- Nilsson Sommar, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Potential Effects on Travelers' Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 17:20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to use dispersion-modeled concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon (BC) to estimate bicyclist exposures along a network of roads and bicycle paths. Such modeling was also performed in a scenario with increased bicycling. Accumulated concentrations between home and work were thereafter calculated for both bicyclists and drivers of cars. A transport model was used to estimate traffic volumes and current commuting preferences in Stockholm County. The study used individuals' home and work addresses, their age, sex, and an empirical model estimate of their expected physical capacity in order to establish realistic bicycle travel distances. If car commuters with estimated physical capacity to bicycle to their workplace within 30 min changed their mode of transport to bicycle, >110,000 additional bicyclists would be achieved. Time-weighted mean concentrations along paths were, among current bicyclists, reduced from 25.8 to 24.2 mu g/m(3) for NOx and 1.14 to 1.08 mu g/m(3) for BC. Among the additional bicyclists, the yearly mean NOx dose from commuting increased from 0.08 to 1.03 mu g/m(3). This would be expected to yearly cause 0.10 fewer deaths for current bicycling levels and 1.7 more deaths for additional bicycling. This increased air pollution impact is much smaller than the decrease in the total population.
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| 3. |
- Malmqvist, Ebba, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing ozone exposure for epidemiological studies in Malmo and Umea, Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1352-2310 .- 1873-2844. ; 94, s. 241-248
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ground level ozone [ozone] is considered a harmful air pollutant but there is a knowledge gap regarding its long term health effects. The main aim of this study is to develop local Land Use Regression [LUR] models that can be used to study long term health effects of ozone. The specific aim is to develop spatial LUR models for two Swedish cities, Umea and Malmo, as well as a temporal model for Malmo in order to assess ozone exposure for long term epidemiological studies. For the spatial model we measured ozone, using Ogawa passive samplers, as weekly averages at 40 sites in each study area, during three seasons. This data was then inserted in the LUR-model with data on traffic, land use, population density and altitude to develop explanatory models of ozone variation. To develop the temporal model for Malmo, hourly ozone data was aggregated into daily means for two measurement stations in Malmo and one in a rural area outside Malmo. Using regression analyses we inserted meteorological variables into different temporal models and the one that performed best for all three stations was chosen. For Malmo the LUR-model had an adjusted model R-2 of 0.40 and cross validation R-2 of 0.17. For Umea the model had an adjusted model R-2 of 0.67 and cross validation adjusted R-2 of 0.48. When restricting the model to only including measuring sites from urban areas, the Malmo model had adjusted model R-2 of 0.51 (cross validation adjusted R-2 0.33) and the Umea model had adjusted model R-2 of 0.81 (validation adjusted R-2 of 0.73). The temporal model had adjusted model R-2 0.54 and 0.61 for the two Malmo sites, the cross validation adjusted R-2 was 0.42. In conclusion, we can with moderate accuracy, at least for Umea, predict the spatial variability, and in Malmo the temporal variability in ozone variation. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 4. |
- Modig, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Modell for beräkning av bensen- och1,3-butadienhalter i omgivningsluft utifran geografisk information om bland annat biobransleeldning och trafik.
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- SammanfattningLuftföroreningar är ett känt folkhälsoproblem i tätorter där trafiken oftast är den störstaenskilda emissionskällan. Det finns dock andra källor som lokalt kan ge upphov till högaluftföroreningshalter och en sådan är småskalig biobränsleeldning. För att begränsahälsoeffekterna av luftföroreningar finns normvärden reglerade i lagstiftning, ochövervakningen av dessa kan ske via mätningar eller olika typer av beräkningar.Syftet med projekt har varit att tillämpa en typ av statistisk beräkningsmodell, ”Land UseRegression (LUR)”, för att predicera halterna av luftföroreningarna bensen och 1,3-butadien iett antal tätorter med hög andel småskalig biobränsleeldning i och omkring Umeå.Principen för en LUR-modell är att först förklara variationen i luftföroreningshalter mellan ettbegränsat antal mätpunkter med skillnader i geografiska variabler, som t.ex.populationsdensitet och trafikflöde inom olika radier runt respektive mätplats. Sedan kanmodellen användas för att beräkna halten i många fler punkter. I denna studie har bensen och1,3-butadien mätts vid tre tillfällen på 39 olika mätpunkter. Geografisk information harsamlats in för respektive mätpunkt, och innefattar bland annat trafikvariabler men ävenuppgifter om biobränsleeldning baserat på uppgifter från sotarregister. LUR-modellen harbyggts upp i enlighet med den procedur som finns beskrivet inom ett stort europeisktforskningsprojekt, ESCAPE.Rapporten visar att det är möjligt utifrån geografiska variabler att predicera halten bensen och1,3-butadien i en given punkt med acceptabel precision. Resultaten visar också attbefolkningstäthet tillsammans med småskalig biobränsleeldning och trafik är de variabler somgemensamt är viktigast för årsmedelhalten bensen och 1,3-butadien.Denna typ av modell är således tillämpbar för att kartlägga och predicera halter av bensen och1,3-butadien i områden med småskalig biobränsleeldning. Modellen kan även användas för attstudera betydelsen av nyetablering av småskalig biobränsleeldning för halten bensen och 1,3-butadien inom t.ex. ett bostadsområde.
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