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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Palmer, Nicholette D, et al.
(författare)
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A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans.
- 2012
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Ingår i: PloS one. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:1, s. e29202-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations.
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| 4. |
- Wang, HD, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1725-1774
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Bertelsen, R. J., et al.
(författare)
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Clinical markers of asthma and IgE assessed in parents before conception predict asthma and hayfever in the offspring
- 2017
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Ingår i: Clinical and Experimental Allergy. - : Wiley. - 0954-7894 .- 1365-2222. ; 47:5, s. 627-638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Mice models suggest epigenetic inheritance induced by parental allergic disease activity. However, we know little of how parental disease activity before conception influences offspring's asthma and allergy in humans.Objective: We aimed to assess the associations of parental asthma severity, bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR), and total and specific IgEs, measured before conception vs. after birth, with offspring asthma and hayfever.Methods: The study included 4293 participants (mean age 34, 47% men) from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) with information on asthma symptom severity, BHR, total and specific IgEs from 1991 to 1993, and data on 9100 offspring born 1972–2012. Adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRR) for associations of parental clinical outcome with offspring allergic disease were estimated with multinomial logistic regressions.Results: Offspring asthma with hayfever was more strongly associated with parental BHR and specific IgE measured before conception than after birth [BHR: aRRR = 2.96 (95% CI: 1.92, 4.57) and 1.40 (1.03, 1.91), respectively; specific IgEs: 3.08 (2.13, 4.45) and 1.83 (1.45, 2.31), respectively]. This was confirmed in a sensitivity analysis of a subgroup of offspring aged 11–22 years with information on parental disease activity both before and after birth.Conclusion & Clinical Relevance: Parental BHR and specific IgE were associated with offspring asthma and hayfever, with the strongest associations observed with clinical assessment before conception as compared to after birth of the child. If the hypothesis is confirmed in other studies, parental disease activity assessed before conception may prove useful for identifying children at risk for developing asthma with hayfever.
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| 8. |
- Pearce, Neil E, et al.
(författare)
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IARC Monographs : 40 Years of Evaluating Carcinogenic Hazards to Humans
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 123:6, s. 507-514
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Recently the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Programme for the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans has been criticized for several of its evaluations, and also the approach used to perform these evaluations. Some critics have claimed that IARC Working Groups' failures to recognize study weaknesses and biases of Working Group members have led to inappropriate classification of a number of agents as carcinogenic to humans.OBJECTIVES: The authors of this paper are scientists from various disciplines relevant to the identification and hazard evaluation of human carcinogens. We have examined here criticisms of the IARC classification process to determine the validity of these concerns. We review the history of IARC evaluations and describe how the IARC evaluations are performed.DISCUSSION: We conclude that these recent criticisms are unconvincing. The procedures employed by IARC to assemble Working Groups of scientists from the various discipline and the techniques followed to review the literature and perform hazard assessment of various agents provide a balanced evaluation and an appropriate indication of the weight of the evidence. Some disagreement by individual scientists to some evaluations is not evidence of process failure. The review process has been modified over time and will undoubtedly be altered in the future to improve the process. Any process can in theory be improved, and we would support continued review and improvement of the IARC processes. This does not mean, however, that the current procedures are flawed.CONCLUSIONS: The IARC Monographs have made, and continue to make, major contributions to the scientific underpinning for societal actions to improve the public's health.
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| 9. |
- Triebner, K., et al.
(författare)
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Menopause Is Associated with Accelerated Lung Function Decline
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. - : AMER THORACIC SOC. - 1073-449X .- 1535-4970. ; 195:8, s. 1058-1065
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rationale: Menopause is associated with changes in sex hormones, which affect immunity, inflammation, and osteoporosis and may impair lung function. Lung function decline has not previously been investigated in relation to menopause. Objectives: To study whether lung function decline, assessed by FVC and FEV1, is accelerated in women who undergo menopause. Methods: The population-based longitudinal European Community Respiratory Health Survey provided serum samples, spirometry, and questionnaire data about respiratory and reproductive health from three study waves (n = 1,438). We measured follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone and added information on menstrual patterns to determine menopausal status using latent class analysis. Associations with lung function decline were investigated using linear mixed effects models, adjusting for age, height, weight, pack-years, current smoking, age at completed full-time education, spirometer, and including study center as random effect. Measurements and Main Results: Menopausal status was associated with accelerated lung function decline. The adjusted mean FVC decline was increased by -10.2 ml/yr (95% confidence interval [CI], -13.1 to -7.2) in transitional women and -12.5 ml/yr (95% CI, -16.2 to -8.9) in post-menopausal women, compared with women menstruating regularly. The adjusted mean FEV1 decline increased by -3.8 ml/yr (95% CI, -6.3 to -2.9) in transitional women and -5.2 ml/yr (95% CI, -8.3 to -2.0) in post-menopausal women. Conclusions: Lung function declined more rapidly among transitional and post-menopausal women, in particular for FVC, beyond the expected age change. Clinicians should be aware that respiratory health often deteriorates during reproductive aging.
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| 10. |
- Balgobind, Brian V, et al.
(författare)
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Novel prognostic subgroups in childhood 11q23/MLL-rearranged acute myeloid leukemia : results of an international retrospective study.
- 2009
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Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 114:12, s. 2489-2496
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Translocations involving chromosome 11q23 frequently occur in pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and are associated with poor prognosis. In most cases, the MLL gene is involved, and more than 50 translocation partners have been described. Clinical outcome data of the 11q23-rearranged subgroups are scarce because most 11q23 series are too small for meaningful analysis of subgroups, although some studies suggest that patients with t(9;11)(p22;q23) have a more favorable prognosis. We retrospectively collected outcome data of 756 children with 11q23- or MLL-rearranged AML from 11 collaborative groups to identify differences in outcome based on translocation partners. All karyotypes were centrally reviewed before assigning patients to subgroups. The event-free survival of 11q23/MLL-rearranged pediatric AML at 5 years from diagnosis was 44% (+/- 5%), with large differences across subgroups (11% +/- 5% to 92% +/- 5%). Multivariate analysis identified the following subgroups as independent prognostic predictors: t(1;11)(q21;q23) (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.1, P = .004); t(6;11)(q27;q23) (HR = 2.2, P < .001); t(10;11)(p12;q23) (HR = 1.5, P = .005); and t(10;11)(p11.2;q23) (HR = 2.5, P = .005). We could not confirm the favorable prognosis of the t(9;11)(p22;q23) subgroup. We identified large differences in outcome within 11q23/MLL-rearranged pediatric AML and novel subgroups based on translocation partners that independently predict clinical outcome. Screening for these translocation partners is needed for accurate treatment stratification at diagnosis.
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