| 1. |
- Gebrehiwot, Solomon Gebreyohannis, et al.
(author)
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Forest cover change over four decades in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia : comparison of three watersheds
- 2014
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In: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 253-266
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The objective of this study was to quantify forest cover changes in three watersheds (Gilgel Abbay (1,646 km(2)), Birr (980 km(2)), and Upper-Didesa (1,980 km(2)) of the Blue Nile Basin between 1957 and 2001. Four land cover maps were produced for each watershed for 1957/1958, 1975, 1986, and 2000/2001. Nine different types of land cover were identified, five of which were forest cover classes. Between 1957 and 2001, the total forest cover increased in Gilgel Abbay (from 10 to 22 % cover) and decreased in Birr (from 29 to 22 % cover) as well as in Upper-Didesa (from 89 to 45 % cover). The increase in Gilgel Abbay was primarily due to the expansion of eucalyptus plantations. Natural forest cover decreased in all three watersheds. Wooded grassland decreased by two-thirds, dry/moist mixed forests decreased by half, and riverine forests had disappeared by 1975 in Gilgel Abbay and Birr. Major deforestation had already taken place in the northern watersheds, Gilgel Abbay and Birr, before the 1960s and 1970s, while in the southern watershed, Upper-Didesa, much of the deforestation occurred after 1975. The southern watershed still remained by far the most forested watershed in 2001 despite the strong ongoing deforestation. The changes in forest cover could affect natural resource management, greenhouse gas emissions, water resources, and agricultural production including coffee production. The patterns of change are different in the three watersheds. We therefore recommend further studies of the local conditions and drivers of change as the basis for designing effective policy to halt further loss of natural forest, which offers a wealth of ecosystem services.
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| 2. |
- Gebrehiwot, Solomon Gebreyohannis, et al.
(author)
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The long-term hydrology of East Africa's water tower : statistical change detection in the watersheds of the Abbay Basin
- 2014
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In: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 321-331
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Forty-five years (1960-2004) of hydrological data from 12 watersheds in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, were tested for possible trends over the entire time series and differences in medians (step-wise changes) between three sub-periods. The classification of the sub-periods was based on the major political changes in 1975 and 1991. Variables investigated were rainfall (P), total flow (Q(t)), high flow (Q(h)), low flow (Q(1)), low flow index (LFI) and run-off coefficient (C). Data were checked for outliers, errors and homogeneity. Trend was tested after serial and cross-correlation tests. The data for each variable were serially uncorrelated from 1 to 10 lag years. There were five globally significant trends out of 50 test cases and 36 significant step-wise changes out of 180 tests. The majority of the significant changes were watershed specific. Run-off coefficient was the single variable showing a consistently increasing trend and stood for ca. 25 % of the total significant trends and step-wise changes. Half of these changes occurred after 1991. We concluded that despite the land use policy changes in 1975 and 1991, as well as the long-term soil degradation, the hydrological regime was quite stable over the 45-year period, with the exception of an increase in the run-off coefficient in the latter part of the run-off record in some watersheds.
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| 3. |
- Mellander, Per-Erik, et al.
(author)
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Summer Rains and Dry Seasons in the Upper Blue Nile Basin : The Predictability of Half a Century of Past and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns
- 2013
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:7, s. e68461-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During the last 100 years the Ethiopian upper Blue Nile Basin (BNB) has undergone major changes in land use, and is now potentially facing changes in climate. Rainfall over BNB supplies over two-thirds of the water to the Nile and supports a large local population living mainly on subsistence agriculture. Regional food security is sensitive to both the amount and timing of rain and is already an important political challenge that will be further complicated if scenarios of climate change are realized. In this study a simple spatial model of the timing and duration of summer rains (Kiremt) and dry season (Bega), and annual rain over the upper BNB was established from observed data between 1952 and 2004. The model was used to explore potential impacts of climate change on these rains, using a down-scaled ECHAM5/MP1-OM scenario between 2050 and 2100. Over the observed period the amount, onset and duration of Kiremt rains and rain-free Bega days have exhibited a consistent spatial pattern. The spatially averaged annual rainfall was 1490 mm of which 93% was Kiremt rain. The average Kiremt rain and number of rainy days was higher in the southwest (322 days) and decreased towards the north (136 days). Under the 2050-2100 scenario, the annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase by 6% and maintain the same spatial pattern as in the past. A larger change in annual rainfall is expected in the southwest (ca. +130 mm) with a gradually smaller change towards the north (ca. +70 mm). Results highlight the need to account for the characteristic spatiotemporal zonation when planning water management and climate adaptation within the upper BNB. The presented simple spatial resolved models of the presence of Kiremt and annual total rainfall could be used as a baseline for such long-term planning.
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