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  • Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al. (författare)
  • Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
  • Cui, Qiao-Yu, et al. (författare)
  • A case study of the role of climate, humans, and ecological setting in Holocene fire history of northwestern Europe
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Science China. Earth Sciences. - 1674-7313 .- 1869-1897. ; 58:2, s. 195-210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the major results from studies of fire history over the last 11000 years (Holocene) in southern Sweden, on the basis of palaeoecological analyses of peat sequences from three small peat bogs. The main objective is to emphasize the value of multiple, continuous sedimentary records of macroscopic charcoal (macro-C) for the reconstruction of local to regional past changes in fire regimes, the importance of multi-proxy studies, and the advantage of model-based estimates of plant cover from pollen data to assess the role of tree composition and human impact in fire history. The chronologies at the three study sites are based on a large number of C-14 dates from terrestrial plant remains and age-depth models are achieved using Bayesian statistics. Fire history is inferred from continuous records of macro-C and microscopic charcoal counts on pollen slides. The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) for pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of local vegetation cover is applied on the three pollen records for plant cover reconstruction over the entire Holocene. The results are as follows: (1) the long-term trends in fire regimes are similar between sites, i.e., frequent fires during the early Holocene until ca. 9 ka BP, low fire frequency during the mid-Holocene, and higher fire frequency from ca. 2.5 ka BP; (2) this broad trend agrees with the overall fire history of northwestern and western Europe north of the Mediterranean area, and is due to climate forcing in the early and mid-Holocene, and to anthropogenic land-use in the late Holocene; (3) the LRA estimates of plant cover at the three sites demonstrate that the relative abundance of pine played a primordial role in the early and mid-Holocene fire history; and (4) the between-site differences in the charcoal records and inferred fire history are due to local factors (i.e., relative abundance of pine, geomorphological setting, and anthropogenic land-use) and taphonomy of charcoal deposition in the small peat bogs. It is shown that continuous macro-C records are most useful to disentangle local from regional-subcontinental fire history, and climate-induced from human-induced fire regimes, and that pollen-based LRA estimates of local plant cover are more adequate than pollen percentages for the assessment of the role of plant composition on fire history.
  • Cui, Qiao-Yu, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluating fossil charcoal representation in small peat bogs : Detailed Holocene fire records from southern Sweden
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: The Holocene. - : Sage Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 30:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In this study, we assess how representative a single charcoal record from a peat profile in small bogs (1.5–2 ha in area) is for the reconstruction of Holocene fire history. We use high-resolution macrocharcoal (>250 μm) analysis of continuous series of 2 cm3 samples from two small bogs in southern Sweden. We compare (1) duplicate charcoal records from the same core, (2) duplicate charcoal records from profiles in the same site (10 m apart), and (3) charcoal records from two sites within the same region (15 km apart). Comparisons are made for charcoal counts and area expressed as accumulation rates. The results suggest that (a) charcoal counts and area are highly correlated in all records; (b) duplicate charcoal records within the same core are very similar, although some charcoal peaks are found in only one of the two records; (c) although long-term trends in fire regimes are similar between duplicate charcoal records from nearby profiles within the same site and between charcoal records from sites within the same region, some individual charcoal peaks/fire events are asynchronous between records. The known historical fires of the town of Växjö (1570 and 1612 CE) are recorded at the two study sites, which indicates a macrocharcoal source area of minimum 15 km in diameter. The 2 cm3 peat samples contained relatively low amounts of macrocharcoal; we therefore recommend to analyse larger samples from small peat bogs with comparable peat accumulation rates. This will improve the reliability of the macrocharcoal record and its interpretation.
  • Cui, Qiao-Yu, et al. (författare)
  • Historical land-use and landscape change in southern Sweden and implications for present and future biodiversity
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 2045-7758 .- 2045-7758. ; 4:18, s. 3555-3570
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The two major aims of this study are (1) To test the performance of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) to quantify past landscape changes using historical maps and related written sources, and (2) to use the LRA and map reconstructions for a better understanding of the origin of landscape diversity and the recent loss of species diversity. Southern Sweden, hemiboreal vegetation zone. The LRA was applied on pollen records from three small bogs for four time windows between AD 1700 and 2010. The LRA estimates of % cover for woodland/forest, grassland, wetland, and cultivated land were compared with those extracted from historical maps within 3-km radius around each bog. Map-extracted land-use categories and pollen-based LRA estimates (in % cover) of the same land-use categories show a reasonable agreement in several cases; when they do not agree, the assumptions used in the data (maps)-model (LRA) comparison are a better explanation of the discrepancies between the two than possible biases of the LRA modeling approach. Both the LRA reconstructions and the historical maps reveal between-site differences in landscape characteristics through time, but they demonstrate comparable, profound transformations of the regional and local landscapes over time and space due to the agrarian reforms in southern Sweden during the 18th and 19th centuries. The LRA was found to be the most reasonable approach so far to reconstruct quantitatively past landscape changes from fossil pollen data. The existing landscape diversity in the region at the beginning of the 18th century had its origin in the long-term regional and local vegetation and land-use history over millennia. Agrarian reforms since the 18th century resulted in a dramatic loss of landscape diversity and evenness in both time and space over the last two centuries leading to a similarly dramatic loss of species (e.g., beetles).
  • Cui, Qiao-Yu, et al. (författare)
  • The role of tree composition in Holocene fire history of the hemiboreal and southern boreal zones of southern Sweden, as revealed by the application of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm : Implications for biodiversity and climate-change issues
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: The Holocene. - : Sage Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 23:12, s. 1747-1763
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a quantitative reconstruction of local forest history at two sites, Stavsåkra (hemiboreal zone) and Storasjö (southern boreal zone), in southern Sweden (province of Småland) to evaluate possible causes of contrasting Holocene fire histories in mid- and late Holocene. The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) is applied to evaluate between-site differences in the relative abundance of deciduous trees and Pinus (pine) and landscape/woodland openness during the Holocene. The LRA estimates of local vegetation abundance are compared with other proxies of local vegetation, that is, plant and beetle remains. The LRA results suggest that Pinus was a major tree taxon in the woodlands of Storasjö during mid- and late Holocene, while Tilia(linden) and Betula (birch) were dominant at Stavsåkra. The contrasting fire histories are shown to be strongly related to between-site differences in tree composition during mid-Holocene, 4000–2000 BC in particular. The archaeological/historical and beetle data indicate contrasting land uses from c. 1000BC (late Bronze Age/early Iron Age), grazing in open Calluna heaths at Stavsåkra and woodland grazing at Storasjö. Between-site differences in fire historyduring late Holocene were likely due to different land-use practices. Between-site differences in tree composition in mid-Holocene are best explainedby local climatic and geological/geomorphological differences between the hemiboreal and southern boreal zones of Småland, which might also be the primary cause of between-site differences in land-use histories during late Holocene. Maintenance of biodiversity at the landscape scale in the studyarea requires that existing old pine woodlands and Calluna heath are managed with fire and cattle grazing. Further climate warming might lead to higherprobabilities of climate-induces fire, in particular in pine-dominated woodlands.
  • Kaplan, Jed O., et al. (författare)
  • Constraining the deforestation history of Europe : Evaluation of historical land use scenarios with pollen-based land cover reconstructions
  • Ingår i: Land. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-445X. ; 6:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1) in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS). Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation,we comparemodeled land usewith the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.
  • Lemdahl, Geoffrey, et al. (författare)
  • Eemian and Early Weichselian environments in southern Sweden: a multi-proxy study of till-covered organic deposits from the Småland peneplain.
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Journal of Quaternary Science. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0267-8179 .- 1099-1417. ; 28:7, s. 705-719
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Based on their luminescence and infinite radiocarbon ages, organic deposits beneath till at two sites on the Småland peneplain, southern Sweden (Nybygget and Stora Gäddevik), are concluded to have formed before the Middle Weichselian. Applied palaeoecological methods include analyses of pollen, diatoms, charcoal fragments, macroscopic remains of vascular plants and mosses, and insect remains. Pollen-stratigraphical correlations with previously studied interglacial/interstadial sites in southern Sweden, Denmark and northern Germany suggest that the peat at Nybygget dates from the Brørup interstadial or the final stage of the Eemian interglacial, whereas the lake sediments at Stora Gäddevik probably were emplaced during the middle Eemian. We conclude that the peat was formed in a wetland characterized by both wood swamp and open mire vegetation, and surrounded by semi-open woodlands dominated by pine, birch and hazel. The middle Eemian sequence at the Stora Gäddevik site provides evidence of a moderately nutrient-rich to nutrient-rich lake environment with relatively diverse aquatic vegetation. Regional vegetation, as reconstructed using the REVEALS model, was spruce woodland mixed with pine, alder and birch, but also included more open environments with hazel, oak, grasslands and sedge-dominated wetlands. Water shield (Brasenia schreberi), now extinct in Europe, was identified in the Eemian lake deposits, from both pollen and macroscopic remains.
  • Marchant, Rob, et al. (författare)
  • Drivers and trajectories of land cover change in East Africa : Human and environmental interactions from 6000 years ago to present
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0012-8252 .- 1872-6828. ; 178, s. 322-378
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • East African landscapes today are the result of the cumulative effects of climate and land-use change over millennial timescales. In this review, we compile archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data from East Africa to document land-cover change, and environmental, subsistence and land-use transitions, over the past 6000 years. Throughout East Africa there have been a series of relatively rapid and high-magnitude environmental shifts characterised by changing hydrological budgets during the mid- to late Holocene. For example, pronounced environmental shifts that manifested as a marked change in the rainfall amount or seasonality and subsequent hydrological budget throughout East Africa occurred around 4000, 800 and 300 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP). The past 6000 years have also seen numerous shifts in human interactions with East African ecologies. From the mid-Holocene, land use has both diversified and increased exponentially, this has been associated with the arrival of new subsistence systems, crops, migrants and technologies, all giving rise to a sequence of significant phases of land-cover change. The first large-scale human influences began to occur around 4000 yr BP, associated with the introduction of domesticated livestock and the expansion of pastoral communities. The first widespread and intensive forest clearances were associated with the arrival of iron-using early farming communities around 2500 yr BP, particularly in productive and easily-cleared mid-altitudinal areas. Extensive and pervasive land-cover change has been associated with population growth, immigration and movement of people. The expansion of trading routes between the interior and the coast, starting around 1300 years ago and intensifying in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries CE, was one such process. These caravan routes possibly acted as conduits for spreading New World crops such as maize (Zea mays), tobacco (Nicotiana spp.) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum), although the processes and timings of their introductions remains poorly documented. The introduction of southeast Asian domesticates, especially banana (Musa spp.), rice (Oryza spp.), taro (Colocasia esculenta), and chicken (Gallus gallus), via transoceanic biological transfers around and across the Indian Ocean, from at least around 1300 yr BP, and potentially significantly earlier, also had profound social and ecological consequences across parts of the region. Through an interdisciplinary synthesis of information and metadatasets, we explore the different drivers and directions of changes in land-cover, and the associated environmental histories and interactions with various cultures, technologies, and subsistence strategies through time and across space in East Africa. This review suggests topics for targeted future research that focus on areas and/or time periods where our understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and land-cover change are most contentious and/or poorly resolved. The review also offers a perspective on how knowledge of regional land-use change can be used to inform and provide perspectives on contemporary issues such as climate and ecosystem change models, conservation strategies, and the achievement of nature-based solutions for development purposes.
  • Marquer, Laurent, et al. (författare)
  • Holocene changes in vegetation composition in northern Europe: why quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions matter
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 90, s. 199-216
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present pollen-based reconstructions of the spatio-temporal dynamics of northern European regional vegetation abundance through the Holocene. We apply the Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model using fossil pollen records from eighteen sites within five modern biomes in the region. The eighteen sites are classified into four time-trajectory types on the basis of principal components analysis of both the REVEALS-based vegetation estimates (RVs) and the pollen percentage (PPs). The four trajectory types are more clearly separated for RVs than PPs. Further, the timing of major Holocene shifts, rates of compositional change, and diversity indices (turnover and evenness) differ between RVs and PPs. The differences are due to the reduction by REVEALS of biases in fossil pollen assemblages caused by different basin size, and inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal properties. For example, in comparison to the PPs, the RVs show an earlier increase in Corylus and Ulmus in the early-Holocene and a more pronounced increase in grassland and deforested areas since the mid-Holocene. The results suggest that the influence of deforestation and agricultural activities on plant composition and abundance from Neolithic times was stronger than previously inferred from PPs. Relative to PPs, RVs show a more rapid compositional change, a largest decrease in turnover, and less variable evenness in most of northern Europe since 5200 cal yr BP. All these changes are primarily related to the strong impact of human activities on the vegetation. This study demonstrates that RV-based estimates of diversity indices, timing of shifts, and rates of change in reconstructed vegetation provide new insights into the timing and magnitude of major human distribution on Holocene regional, vegetation, feature that are critical in the assessment of human impact on vegetation, land-cover, biodiversity, and climate in the past. (C) Elsevier Ltd.All tights reserved.
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