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Sökning: WFRF:(Goldbourt Uri)

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1.
  • Di Angelantonio, E., et al. (författare)
  • Glycated Hemoglobin Measurement and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Jama-Journal of the American Medical Association. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:12, s. 1225-1233
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on HbA(1c) values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294 998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (>= 7.5%) risk. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20 840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13 237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA(1c) values and CVD risk. The association between HbA(1c) values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA(1c) was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA(1c) assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA(1c) values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.
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2.
  • Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol Intake and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Circulation. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 121:14, s. 1589-1597
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background-Light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease. This protective effect of alcohol, however, may be confined to middle-aged or older individuals. Coronary heart disease incidence is low in men <40 years of age and in women <50 years of age; for this reason, study cohorts rarely have the power to investigate the effects of alcohol on coronary heart disease risk in younger adults. This study examined whether the beneficial effect of alcohol on coronary heart disease depends on age. Methods and Results-In this pooled analysis of 8 prospective studies from North America and Europe including 192 067 women and 74 919 men free of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers at baseline, average daily alcohol intake was assessed at baseline with a food frequency or diet history questionnaire. An inverse association between alcohol and risk of coronary heart disease was observed in all age groups; hazard ratios among moderately drinking men (5.0 to 29.9 g/d) 39 to 50, 50 to 59, and >= 60 years of age were 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36 to 0.93), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.86), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.97) compared with abstainers. However, the analyses indicated a smaller incidence rate difference between abstainers and moderate consumers in younger adults (incidence rate difference, 45 per 100 000; 90% CI, 8 to 84) than in middle-aged (incidence rate difference, 64 per 100 000; 90% CI, 24 to 102) and older (incidence rate difference, 89 per 100 000; 90% CI, 44 to 140) adults. Similar results were observed in women. Conclusion-Alcohol is also associated with a decreased risk of coronary heart disease in younger adults; however, the absolute risk was small compared with middle-aged and older adults. (Circulation. 2010; 121: 1589-1597.)
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3.
  • Jakobsen, Marianne U., et al. (författare)
  • Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease : a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : AMER SOC CLINICAL NUTRITION. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 89:5, s. 1425-1432
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake increases plasma LDL-cholesterol concentrations; therefore, intake should be reduced to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). Lower habitual intakes of SFAs, however, require substitution of other macronutrients to maintain energy balance. Objective: We investigated associations between energy intake from monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), and carbohydrates and risk of CHD while assessing the potential effect-modifying role of sex and age. Using substitution models, our aim was to clarify whether energy from unsaturated fatty acids or carbohydrates should replace energy from SFAs to prevent CHD. Design: This was a follow-up study in which data from 11 American and European cohort studies were pooled. The outcome measure was incident CHD. Results: During 4-10 y of follow-up, 5249 coronary events and 2155 coronary deaths occurred among 344,696 persons. For a 5% lower energy intake from SFAs and a concomitant higher energy intake from PUFAs, there was a significant inverse association between PUFAs and risk of coronary events (hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.97); the hazard ratio for coronary deaths was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.89). For a 5% lower energy intake from SFAs and a concomitant higher energy intake from carbohydrates, there was a modest significant direct association between carbohydrates and coronary events (hazard ratio: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.14); the hazard ratio for coronary deaths was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.13). MUFA intake was not associated with CHD. No effect modification by sex or age was found. Conclusion: The associations suggest that replacing SFAs with PUFAs rather than MUFAs or carbohydrates prevents CHD over a wide range of intakes. Am J Clin Nutr 2009;89:1425-32.
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6.
  • Tolstrup, Janne S, et al. (författare)
  • Smoking and risk of coronary heart disease in younger, middle-aged, and older adults
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Public Health. - : AMER PUBLIC HEALTH ASSOC INC. - 0090-0036 .- 1541-0048. ; 104:1, s. 96-102
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives. We investigated associations of smoking and coronary heart disease (CHD) by age. Methods. Data came from the Pooling Project on Diet and Coronary Heart Disease (8 prospective studies, 1974-1996; n = 192 067 women and 74 720 men, aged 40-89 years). Results. During follow-up, 4326 cases of CHD were reported. Relative to never smokers, CHD risk among current smokers was highest in the youngest and lowest in the oldest participants. For example, among women aged 40 to 49 years the hazard ratio was 8.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.0, 14) and 3.1 (95% CI = 2.0, 4.9) among those aged 70 years or older. The largest absolute risk differences between current smokers and never smokers were observed among the oldest participants. Finally, the majority of CHD cases among smokers were attributable to smoking. For example, attributable proportions of CHD by age group were 88% (40-49 years), 81% (50-59 years), 71% for (60-69 years), and 68% (70+ years) among women who smoked. Conclusions. Among smokers, the majority of CHD cases are attributable to smoking in all age groups. Smoking prevention is important, irrespective of age.
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7.
  • Wormser, David, et al. (författare)
  • Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people : individual participant meta-analysis
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BackgroundThe extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.MethodsWe calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.ResultsFor people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.ConclusionAdult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
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8.
  • Paige, Ellie, et al. (författare)
  • Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction : An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 186:8, s. 899-907
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.
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9.
  • Pennells, Lisa, et al. (författare)
  • Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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