| 1. |
- Lee, Whanhee, et al.
(författare)
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Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes : a multi-country study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 110, s. 123-130
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3-2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1-2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4-2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.
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| 2. |
- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
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| 3. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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| 4. |
- Henschel, Susann, et al.
(författare)
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Air pollution interventions and their impact on public health
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - Basel : Birkhäuser Verlag. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 57:5, s. 757-768
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: Numerous epidemiological studies have found a link between air pollution and health. We are reviewing a collection of published intervention studies with particular focus on studies assessing both improvements in air quality and associated health effects. METHODS: Interventions, defined as events aimed at reducing air pollution or where reductions occurred as a side effect, e.g. strikes, German reunification, from the 1960s onwards were considered for inclusion. This review is not a complete record of all existing air pollution interventions. In total, 28 studies published in English were selected based on a systematic search of internet databases. RESULTS: Overall air pollution interventions have succeeded at improving air quality. Consistently published evidence suggests that most of these interventions have been associated with health benefits, mainly by the way of reduced cardiovascular and/or respiratory mortality and/or morbidity. The decrease in mortality from the majority of the reviewed interventions has been estimated to exceed the expected predicted figures based on the estimates from time-series studies. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence that decreased air pollution levels following an intervention resulted in health benefits for the assessed population.
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| 5. |
- Lee, Jae Young, et al.
(författare)
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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| 6. |
- Michelozzi, Paola, et al.
(författare)
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High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.
- 2009
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Ingår i: American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. - 1535-4970. ; 179:5, s. 383-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- RATIONALE: Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS: For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.
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