| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
-
World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 2. |
- Beulens, J. W. J., et al.
(författare)
-
Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women : influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 272:4, s. 358-370
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. Design: Multicentre prospective casecohort study. Setting: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Subjects: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Interventions: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. Results: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.781.05) for 6.112.0 versus 0.16.0 g day-1, adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.196.0 g day-1 with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.750.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.720.92) for 6.112.0 g day-1 (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI = 25 kg m-2) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.791.03 for 6.112.0 g day-1). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Conclusions: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.
|
|
| 3. |
- Sieri, S., et al.
(författare)
-
Alcohol consumption patterns, diet and body weight in 10 European countries
- 2009
-
Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 63:4s, s. 81-100
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background/objectives: Europe has the highest level of alcohol consumption in the world. As drinking patterns are important determinants of the beneficial and harmful effects of alcohol consumption, we investigated alcohol consumption in relation to nutrient intake, place of consumption, education and body weight in a sample of adults from 10 European countries. Methods: A 24-h dietary recall interview was conducted on 13 025 men and 23 009 women, aged 35-74 years, from 27 centres participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Means and standard errors of alcohol consumption, adjusted for age, were calculated, stratified by gender and centre. Results: In many centres, higher level drinkers (males consuming 424 g of ethanol/day, equivalent to 42 standard drinks and females consuming 412 g of ethanol/day equivalent to 41 standard drink) obtained more energy from fat and protein and less from sugar than did abstainers. The proportion of energy from starch tended to be higher for male and lower for female higher level drinkers than for abstainers. Female higher level drinkers had a lower body mass index than did abstainers, whereas male higher level drinkers generally weighed more. Male higher level drinkers were less educated than abstainers in Mediterranean countries, but were more educated elsewhere. Female higher level drinkers were usually more educated than were abstainers. Outside the home, consumption (both genders) tended to be at friends' homes, particularly among men in Northern and Central Europe, and in bars in Spain. Conclusions: This study reveals clear geographical differences in drinking habits across Europe, and shows that the characteristics of different alcohol consumption categories also vary. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2009) 63, S81-S100; doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2009.76
|
|
