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1.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.METHODS: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FINDINGS: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.INTERPRETATION: GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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4.
  • Coombes, R C, et al. (författare)
  • Survival and safety of exemestane versus tamoxifen after 2-3 years' tamoxifen treatment (Intergroup Exemestane Study): a randomised controlled trial.
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 369:9561, s. 559-70
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Early improvements in disease-free survival have been noted when an aromatase inhibitor is given either instead of or sequentially after tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer. However, little information exists on the long-term effects of aromatase inhibitors after treatment, and whether these early improvements lead to real gains in survival. METHODS: 4724 postmenopausal patients with unilateral invasive, oestrogen-receptor-positive or oestrogen-receptor-unknown breast cancer who were disease-free on 2-3 years of tamoxifen, were randomly assigned to switch to exemestane (n=2352) or to continue tamoxifen (n=2372) for the remainder of a 5-year endocrine treatment period. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival; overall survival was a secondary endpoint. Efficacy analyses were intention-to-treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN11883920. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 55.7 months (range 0-89.7), 809 events contributing to the analysis of disease-free survival had been reported (354 exemestane, 455 tamoxifen); unadjusted hazard ratio 0.76 (95% CI 0.66-0.88, p=0.0001) in favour of exemestane, absolute benefit 3.3% (95% CI 1.6-4.9) by end of treatment (ie, 2.5 years after randomisation). 222 deaths occurred in the exemestane group compared with 261 deaths in the tamoxifen group; unadjusted hazard ratio 0.85 (95% CI 0.71-1.02, p=0.08), 0.83 (0.69-1.00, p=0.05) when 122 patients with oestrogen-receptor-negative disease were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that early improvements in disease-free survival noted in patients who switch to exemestane after 2-3 years on tamoxifen persist after treatment, and translate into a modest improvement in overall survival.
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7.
  • Lim, Stephen S., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1813-1850
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>Background</strong></p><p>In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).</p><p><strong>Methods</strong></p><p>We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.</p><p><strong>Findings</strong></p><p>In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.</p><p><strong>Interpretation</strong></p><p>GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.</p>
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  • Resic-Lindehammer, Sabina, et al. (författare)
  • Temporal trends of HLA genotype frequencies of type 1 diabetes patients in Sweden from 1986 to 2005 suggest altered risk
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Acta Diabetologica. - 0940-5429 .- 1432-5233. ; 45:4, s. 231-5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes in 1-18-year-old patients with type 1 diabetes newly diagnosed in 1986-1987 (n = 430), 1996-2000 (n = 342) and in 2003-2005 (n = 171). We tested the hypothesis that the HLA DQ genotype distribution changes over time. Swedish type 1 diabetes patients and controls were typed for HLA using polymerase chain reaction amplification and allele specific probes for DQ A1* and B1* alleles. The most common type 1 diabetes HLA DQA1*-B1*genotype 0501-0201/0301-0302 was 36% (153/430) in 1986-1987 and 37% (127/342) in 1996-2000, but decreased to 19% (33/171) in 2003-2005 (P \ 0.0001). The 0501-0201/0501-0201 genotype increased from 1% in 1986-1987 to 7% in 1996-2000 (P = 0.0047) and to 5% in 2003-2005 (P &gt; 0.05). This study in 1-18-year-old Swedish type 1 diabetes patients supports the notion that there is a temporal change in HLA risk.</p>
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10.
  • Resic-Lindehammer, Sabina, et al. (författare)
  • Temporal trends of HLA genotype frequencies of type 1 diabetes patients in Sweden from 1986 to 2005 suggest altered risk
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Acta Diabetologica. - 0940-5429 .- 1432-5233. ; 45:4, s. 231-235
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes in 1-18-year-old patients with type 1 diabetes newly diagnosed in 1986-1987 (n = 430), 1996-2000 (n = 342) and in 2003-2005 (n = 171). We tested the hypothesis that the HLA DQ genotype distribution changes over time. Swedish type 1 diabetes patients and controls were typed for HLA using polymerase chain reaction amplification and allele specific probes for DQ A1* and B1* alleles. The most common type 1 diabetes HLA DQA1*-B1*genotype 0501-0201/0301-0302 was 36% (153/430) in 1986-1987 and 37% (127/342) in 1996-2000, but decreased to 19% (33/171) in 2003-2005 (P \ 0.0001). The 0501-0201/0501-0201 genotype increased from 1% in 1986-1987 to 7% in 1996-2000 (P = 0.0047) and to 5% in 2003-2005 (P &gt; 0.05). This study in 1-18-year-old Swedish type 1 diabetes patients supports the notion that there is a temporal change in HLA risk.</p>
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