| 1. |
- Eggimann, Sven, et al.
(författare)
-
How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 195
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Electrification of heat will impact demands on power systems, potentially increasing sensitivity to weather variability. We have developed a spatio-temporal methodology for assessing electricity demand in the context of weather variability. We analyse varying levels of electrification of heat in the United Kingdom and simulate local weather impacts with an ensemble of 100 weather realisations. Across the scenarios, the maximum simulated national electricity peak demand doubles compared to today. Assuming current weather pattern, the weather-induced variability in electricity peak is projected to range from 6.1-7.8 GW (10.2-15.2% of mean peak demand) in 2020 to 6.2-14.6 GW (9.8-22.2% of mean peak demand) in 2050. We find that future weather may exacerbate the impact of electrification of heat on peak demand. However, socio-economic uncertainty predominates weather-induced variability. Electrification of heat without reducing heating demands will result in dramatic increases in peak electricity demand as well as increased exposure to weather effects. Regions experiencing a combined increase in peak demand and weather variability will likely prove to be particularly challenging for balancing demand and supply. Switching to alternative fuels such as hydrogen or measures to lower heating demand reduces the need for additional peak electricity capacity as well as mitigating impacts of extreme weather events.
|
|
| 2. |
- Yu, ChaoQing, et al.
(författare)
-
Managing nitrogen to restore water quality in China
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 567:7749, s. 516-520
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nitrogen cycle has been radically changed by human activities(1). China consumes nearly one third of the world's nitrogen fertilizers. The excessive application of fertilizers(2,3) and increased nitrogen discharge from livestock, domestic and industrial sources have resulted in pervasive water pollution. Quantifying a nitrogen 'boundary'(4) in heterogeneous environments is important for the effective management of local water quality. Here we use a combination of water-quality observations and simulated nitrogen discharge from agricultural and other sources to estimate spatial patterns of nitrogen discharge into water bodies across China from 1955 to 2014. We find that the critical surface-water quality standard (1.0 milligrams of nitrogen per litre) was being exceeded in most provinces by the mid-1980s, and that current rates of anthropogenic nitrogen discharge (14.5 +/- 3.1 megatonnes of nitrogen per year) to fresh water are about 2.7 times the estimated 'safe' nitrogen discharge threshold (5.2 +/- 0.7 megatonnes of nitrogen per year). Current efforts to reduce pollution through wastewater treatment and by improving cropland nitrogen management can partially remedy this situation. Domestic wastewater treatment has helped to reduce net discharge by 0.7 +/- 0.1 megatonnes in 2014, but at high monetary and energy costs. Improved cropland nitrogen management could remove another 2.3 +/- 0.3 megatonnes of nitrogen per year-about 25 per cent of the excess discharge to fresh water. Successfully restoring a clean water environment in China will further require transformational changes to boost the national nutrient recycling rate from its current average of 36 per cent to about 87 per cent, which is a level typical of traditional Chinese agriculture. Although ambitious, such a high level of nitrogen recycling is technologically achievable at an estimated capital cost of approximately 100 billion US dollars and operating costs of 18-29 billion US dollars per year, and could provide co-benefits such as recycled wastewater for crop irrigation and improved environmental quality and ecosystem services.
|
|
| 3. |
- Fuldauer, Lena I., et al.
(författare)
-
Evaluating the benefits of national adaptation to reduce climate risks and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 76, s. 102575-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scaling up national climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation's development. Traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of devel-opment and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By grounding adaptation planning in an SDG vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision -makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard SDG target progress, and ii) evaluate strate-gies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional SDG target co -benefits. This methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in Ghana. In the face of the country's risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. Three strategies ('built', 'nature-based', 'combined SDG strategy') were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect Ghana's prioritised assets against climate risk. Evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on SDG targets, we find that the combined SDG strategy maximises SDG co-benefits across 116 targets. The proposed methodological process for integrating SDG targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas.
|
|
| 4. |
- Oughton, Edward J., et al.
(författare)
-
Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Complexity. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1076-2787 .- 1099-0526. ; 2018, s. 1-11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- National infrastructure systems spanning energy, transport, digital, waste, and water are well recognised as complex and interdependent. While some policy makers have been keen to adopt the narrative of complexity, the application of complexity-based methods in public policy decision-making has been restricted by the lack of innovation in associated methodologies and tools. In this paper we firstly evaluate the application of complex adaptive systems theory to infrastructure systems, comparing and contrasting this approach with traditional systems theory. We secondly identify five key theoretical properties of complex adaptive systems including adaptive agents, diverse agents, dynamics, irreversibility, and emergence, which are exhibited across three hierarchical levels ranging from agents, to networks, to systems. With these properties in mind, we then present a case study on the development of a system-of-systems modelling approach based on complex adaptive systems theory capable of modelling an emergent national infrastructure system, driven by agent-level decisions with explicitly modelled interdependencies between energy, transport, digital, waste, and water. Indeed, the novel contribution of the paper is the articulation of the case study describing a decade of research which applies complex adaptive systems properties to the development of a national infrastructure system-of-systems model. This approach has been used by the UK National Infrastructure Commission to produce a National Infrastructure Assessment which is capable of coordinating infrastructure policy across a historically fragmented governance landscape spanning eight government departments. The application will continue to be pertinent moving forward due to the continuing complexity of interdependent infrastructure systems, particularly the challenges of increased electrification and the proliferation of the Internet of Things.
|
|
