| 1. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-
(författare)
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Information Needs for Water Resource and Risk Management : Hydro-Meteorological Data Value and Non-Traditional Information
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Data availability is extremely important for water management. Without data it would not be possible to know how much water is available or how often extreme events are likely to occur. The usually available hydro-meteorological data often have a limited representativeness and are affected by errors and uncertainties. Additionally, their collection is resource-intensive and, thus, many areas of the world are severely under-monitored. Other areas are seeing an unprecedented – yet local – wealth of data in the last decades. Additionally, the spread of new technologies together with the integration of different approaches to water management science and practice have uncovered a large amount of soft information that can potentially complement and expand the possibilities of water management.This thesis presents a series of studies that address data opportunities for water management. Firstly, the hydro-meteorological data needs for correctly estimating key processes for water resource management such as precipitation and discharge were evaluated. Secondly, the use of non-traditional sources of information such as social media and human behaviour to improve the efficiency of flood mitigation actions were explored. The results obtained provide guidelines for determining basic hydro-meteorological data needs. For instance, an upper density of 24 rain gauges per 1000 km2 for spatial precipitation estimation beyond which improvements are negligible was found. Additionally, a larger relative value of discharge data respect to precipitation data for calibrating hydrological models was observed. Regarding non-traditional sources of information, social memory of past flooding events was found to be a relevant factor determining the efficiency of flood early warning systems and therefore their damage mitigation potential. Finally, a new methodology to use social media data for probabilistic estimates of flood extent was put forward and shown to achieve results comparable to traditional approaches.This thesis significantly contributes to integrated water management by improving the understanding of data needs and opportunities of new sources of information thus making water management more efficient and useful for society.
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| 2. |
- Lundberg, Angela, et al.
(författare)
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New approach to the measurement of interception evaporation
- 1997
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Ingår i: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. - 0739-0572 .- 1520-0426. ; 14:5, s. 1023-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaporation of water intercepted by vegetation represents an important (sometimes major) part of evapotranspiration in temperate regions. Interception evaporation is an important process where insufficient measurement techniques hamper progress in knowledge and modeling. An ideal technique to study the interception evaporation process should monitor intercepted mass (and its vertical distribution) and interception loss with high accuracy (0.1 mm) and time resolution (1 min), and give correct area estimates. The method should be inexpensive, require minor supervision during extended periods, and work in dense forests. Net precipitation techniques, in which interception evaporation is determined from the difference between gross precipitation (measured with funnels) and throughfall (measured with funnels, troughs, or plastic sheet net-rainfall gauges) fulfill many of the requirements but usually have a too-low accuracy and time resolution for process studies. Precipitation measurements are normally affected by distortion of the wind field around gauges as well as by adhesive and evaporative losses. Throughfall measurements with precipitation funnels, troughs, or plastic sheet net-rainfall gauges, manually emptied or combined with tipping buckets, usually have too-low accuracy and time resolution for process studies and are impaired by adhesive losses. A new loadcell-based system to determine interception evaporation from gross and net precipitation is presented. A weighing gauge with minimal wind loss is used for precipitation, and weighing troughs are used for throughfall measurements. The weighing troughs minimize adhesive-loss errors and react instantaneously. Preliminary results with the method confirm that it can be used for process studies with a high accuracy (0.1 mm) and a high time resolution (1 min).
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| 3. |
- Lundin, Lars-Christer, et al.
(författare)
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Continuous long-term measurements of soil-plant-atmosphere variables at a forest site
- 1999
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 98-99, s. 53-73
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is a major challenge in modem science to decrease the uncertainty in predictions of global climate change. One of the largest uncertainties in present-day global climate models resides with the understanding of processes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) system. Continuous, long-term data are needed in order to correctly quantify balances of water, energy and CO2 in this system and to correctly model it. It is the objective of this paper to demonstrate how a combined system of existing sensor, computer, and network technologies could be set up to provide continuous and reliable long-term SVAT-process data from a forested site under almost all environmental conditions. The Central Tower Site (CTS) system was set up in 1993-1994 in a 25 m high boreal forest growing on a highly heterogeneous till soil with a high content of stones and blocks. It has successfully monitored relevant states and fluxes in the system, such as atmospheric fluxes of momentum, heat, water vapour and CO2, atmospheric profiles of temperature, water vapour, CO2, short-and long-wave radiation, heat storage in soil and trees, sap-dow and a variety of ecophysiological properties, soil-water contents and tensions, and groundwater levels, rainfall and throughfall. System uptime has been more than 90% for most of its components during the first 5 years of operation. Results from the first 5 years of operation include e.g., budgets for energy, water and CO2, information on important but rarely occurring events such as evaporation from snow-covered canopies, and reactions of the forest to extreme drought. The carbon budget shows that the forest may be a sink of carbon although it is still growing. The completeness of the data has made it possible to test the internal consistency of SVAT models. The pioneering set-up at the CTS has been adopted by a large number of SVAT-monitoring sites around the world. Questions concerning tower maintenance, long-term calibration plans, maintenance of sensors and data-collection system, and continuous development of the computer network to keep it up to date are, however, only partly of interest as a research project in itself. It is thus difficult to get it funded from usual research-funding agencies. The full value of data generated by the CTS system can best be appreciated after a decade or more of continuous operation. Main uses of the data would be to evaluate how SVAT models handle the natural variability of climate conditions, quantification of water. carbon and energy budgets during various weather conditions, rind development of new parameterisation schemes in global and regional climate models.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - Oxon : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:5, s. 842-853
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.
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| 6. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Sub-daily runoff predictions using parameters calibrated on the basis of data with a daily temporal resolution
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 550, s. 399-411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Concentration times in small and medium-sized basins (similar to 10-1000 km(2)) are commonly less than 24 h. Flood-forecasting models are thus required to provide simulations at high temporal resolutions (1 h-6 h), although time-series of input and runoff data with sufficient lengths are often only available at the daily temporal resolution, especially in developing countries. This has led to study the relationships of estimated parameter values at the temporal resolutions where they are needed from the temporal resolutions where they are available. This study presents a methodology to treat empirically model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data in two small basins using a bucket-type hydrological model, HBV-light, and the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation approach for selecting its parameters. To avoid artefacts due to the numerical resolution or numerical method of the differential equations within the model, the model was consistently run using modelling time steps of one-hour regardless of the temporal resolution of the rainfall-runoff data. The distribution of the parameters calibrated at several temporal resolutions in the two basins did not show model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data and the direct transferability of calibrated parameter sets (e.g., daily) for runoff simulations at other temporal resolutions for which they were not calibrated (e.g., 3 h or 6 h) resulted in a moderate (if any) decrease in model performance, in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe and volume-error efficiencies. The results of this study indicate that if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible with model-parameter values calibrated from long time series of daily data. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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| 7. |
- Reynolds, J. Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Definitions of climatological and discharge days : do they matter in hydrological modelling?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63:5, s. 836-844
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The performance of hydrological models is affected by uncertainty related to observed climatological and discharge data. Although the latter has been widely investigated, the effects on hydrological models from different starting times of the day have received little interest. In this study, observational data from one tropical basin were used to investigate the effects on a typical bucket-type hydrological model, the HBV, when the definitions of the climatological and discharge days are changed. An optimization procedure based on a genetic algorithm was used to assess the effects on model performance. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies varied considerably between day definitions, with the largest dependence on the climatological-day definition. The variation was likely caused by how storm water was assigned to one or two daily rainfall values depending on the definition of the climatological day. Hydrological models are unlikely to predict high flows accurately if rainfall intensities are reduced because of the day definition.
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| 8. |
- Reynolds, J. Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:9, s. 1512-1524
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts.
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| 9. |
- Reynolds Puga, José Eduardo, 1982-
(författare)
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Flood Prediction in data-scarce basins : Maximising the value of limited hydro-meteorological data
- 2019
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Floods pose a threat to society that can cause large socio-economic damages and loss of life in many parts of the world. Flood-forecasting models are required to provide simulations at temporal resolutions higher than a day in basins with concentration times smaller than 24 h. However, data at such resolutions are commonly limited or not available, especially in developing or low-income countries. This thesis covers issues related to the scarcity and lack of high temporal-resolution hydro-meteorological data and explores methods where the value of existing data is maximised to improve flood prediction.By varying the starting time of daily records (the day definition), it was shown that this definition had large implications on model calibration and runoff simulation and therefore, should be considered in regionalisation and flood-forecasting applications. A method was developed to treat empirically model-parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data. Model parameters seemed to become independent of the temporal resolution of data when the modelling time-step was sufficiently small. Thus, if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible using model-parameter values calibrated from time series of daily data. A new calibration method using only a few event hydrographs could improve flood prediction compared to a scenario with no discharge data. Two event hydrographs may be sufficient for calibration, but accuracy and reduction in uncertainty may improve if data on more events can be acquired. Using flood events above a threshold with a high frequency of occurrence for calibration may be as useful for flood prediction as using only extreme events with a low frequency of occurrence. The accuracy of the rainfall forecasts strongly influenced the predictive performance of a flood model calibrated with limited discharge data. Between volume and duration errors of the rainfall forecast, the former had the larger impact on model performance.The methods previously described proved to be useful for predicting floods and are expected to support flood-risk assessment and decision making during the occurrence of floods in data-scarce regions. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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| 10. |
- Westerberg, Ida, et al.
(författare)
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Calibration of hydrologic models using flow-duration curves
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; :7, s. 9467-9522
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models depends on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable importance of the performance with flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. A new calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) was developed which addresses these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) of the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested – based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments without resulting in overpredicted simulated uncertainty. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the new method is less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than the normal use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow. The results suggest that the new calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The new method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.
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