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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Eriksson, Anna-Lena, 1971, et al.
(författare)
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SHBG gene promoter polymorphisms in men are associated with serum sex hormone-binding globulin, androgen and androgen metabolite levels, and hip bone mineral density.
- 2006
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Ingår i: The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0021-972X .- 1945-7197. ; 91:12, s. 5029-37
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: SHBG regulates free sex steroid levels, which in turn regulate skeletal homeostasis. Twin studies have demonstrated that genetic factors largely account for interindividual variation in SHBG levels. Glucuronidated androgen metabolites have been proposed as markers of androgenic activity. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to investigate whether polymorphisms in the SHBG gene promoter [(TAAAA)(n) microsatellite and rs1799941 single-nucleotide polymorphism] are associated with serum levels of SHBG, sex steroids, or bone mineral density (BMD) in men. DESIGN AND STUDY SUBJECTS: We conducted a population-based study of two cohorts of Swedish men: elderly men (MrOS Sweden; n congruent with 3000; average age, 75.4 yr) and young adult men (GOOD study; n = 1068; average age, 18.9 yr). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured serum levels of SHBG, testosterone, estradiol, dihydrotestosterone, 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol glucuronides, androsterone glucuronide, and BMD determined by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: In both cohorts, (TAAAA)(n) and rs1799941 genotypes were associated with serum levels of SHBG (P < 0.001), dihydrotestosterone (P < 0.05), and 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol glucuronides (P < 0.05). In the elderly men, they were also associated with testosterone and BMD at all hip bone sites. The genotype associated with high levels of SHBG was also associated with high BMD. Interestingly, male mice overexpressing human SHBG had increased cortical bone mineral content in the femur, suggesting that elevated SHBG levels may cause increased bone mass. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that polymorphisms in the SHBG promoter predict serum levels of SHBG, androgens, and glucuronidated androgen metabolites, and hip BMD in men.
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