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  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
  • Gakidou, E., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
  • Aartsen, M. G., et al. (författare)
  • Multiwavelength follow-up of a rare IceCube neutrino multiplet
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP SCIENCES S A. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 607
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • On February 17, 2016, the IceCube real-time neutrino search identified, for the first time, three muon neutrino candidates arriving within 100 s of one another, consistent with coming from the same point in the sky. Such a triplet is expected once every 13.7 years as a random coincidence of background events. However, considering the lifetime of the follow-up program the probability of detecting at least one triplet from atmospheric background is 32%. Follow-up observatories were notified in order to search for an electromagnetic counterpart. Observations were obtained by Swift's X-ray telescope, by ASAS-SN, LCO and MASTER at optical wavelengths, and by VERITAS in the very-high-energy gamma-ray regime. Moreover, the Swift BAT serendipitously observed the location 100 s after the first neutrino was detected, and data from the Fermi LAT and HAWC observatory were analyzed. We present details of the neutrino triplet and the follow-up observations. No likely electromagnetic counterpart was detected, and we discuss the implications of these constraints on candidate neutrino sources such as gamma-ray bursts, core-collapse supernovae and active galactic nucleus flares. This study illustrates the potential of and challenges for future follow-up campaigns.
  • Aartsen, M. G., et al. (författare)
  • Very high-energy gamma-ray follow-up program using neutrino triggers from IceCube
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221 .- 1748-0221. ; 11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We describe and report the status of a neutrino-triggered program in IceCube that generates real-time alerts for gamma-ray follow-up observations by atmospheric-Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC and VERITAS). While IceCube is capable of monitoring the whole sky continuously, high-energy gamma-ray telescopes have restricted fields of view and in general are unlikely to be observing a potential neutrino-flaring source at the time such neutrinos are recorded. The use of neutrino-triggered alerts thus aims at increasing the availability of simultaneous multi-messenger data during potential neutrino flaring activity, which can increase the discovery potential and constrain the phenomenological interpretation of the high-energy emission of selected source classes (e. g. blazars). The requirements of a fast and stable online analysis of potential neutrino signals and its operation are presented, along with first results of the program operating between 14 March 2012 and 31 December 2015.
  • Hilden, K., et al. (författare)
  • Gestational diabetes and adiposity are independent risk factors for perinatal outcomes : a population based cohort study in Sweden
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : WILEY. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 36:2, s. 151-157
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims To evaluate the interaction effects of gestational diabetes (GDM) with obesity on perinatal outcomes. Methods A population-based cohort study in Sweden excluding women without pre-gestational diabetes with a singleton birth between 1998 and 2012. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the potential independent associations of GDM and BMI with adverse perinatal outcomes as well as their interactions. Main outcome measures were malformations, stillbirths, perinatal mortality, low Apgar score, fetal distress, prematurity and Erb's palsy. Results Some 1,294,006 women were included, with a GDM prevalence of 1% (n = 14,833). The rate of overweight/obesity was 67.7% in the GDM-group and 36.1% in the non-GDM-group. No significant interaction existed. Offspring of women with GDM had significantly increased risk of malformations, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.16 (95% confidence intervals 1.06-1.26), prematurity, aOR 1.86 (1.76-1. 98), low Apgar score, aOR 1.36 (1.10-1.70), fetal distress, aOR 1.09 (1.02-1.16) and Erb's palsy aOR 2.26 (1.79-2.86). No risk for stillbirth or perinatal mortality was seen. Offspring of overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)), obese (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m(2)) and severely obese women (BMI >= 35.0 kg/m(2)) had significantly increased risks of all outcomes including stillbirth 1.51 (1.40-1.62) to 2.85 (2.52-3.22) and perinatal mortality 1.49 (1.40-1.59) to 2.83 (2.54-3.15). Conclusions There is no interaction effect between GDM and BMI for the studied outcomes. Higher BMI and GDM are major independent risk factors for most serious adverse perinatal outcomes. More effective pre-pregnancy and antenatal interventions are required to prevent serious adverse pregnancy outcomes among women with either GDM or high BMI.
  • Mocumbi, S., et al. (författare)
  • Ready to deliver maternal and newborn care? Health providers' perceptions of their work context in rural Mozambique
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Global Health Action. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9716. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Deficiencies in the provision of evidence-based obstetric care are common in low-income countries, including Mozambique. Constraints relate to lack of human and financial resources and weak health systems, however limited resources alone do not explain the variance. Understanding the healthcare context ahead of implementing new interventions can inform the choice of strategies to achieve a successful implementation. The Context Assessment for Community Health (COACH) tool was developed to assess modifiable aspects of the healthcare context that theoretically influence the implementation of evidence. Objectives: To investigate the comprehensibility and the internal reliability of COACH and its use to describe the healthcare context as perceived by health providers involved in maternal care in Mozambique. Methods: A response process evaluation was completed with six purposively selected health providers to uncover difficulties in understanding the tool. Internal reliability was tested using Cronbach's a. Subsequently, a cross-sectional survey using COACH, which contains 49 items assessing eight dimensions, was administered to 175 health providers in 38 health facilities within six districts in Mozambique. Results: The content of COACH was clear and most items were understood. All dimensions were near to or exceeded the commonly accepted standard for satisfactory internal reliability (0.70). Analysis of the survey data indicated that items on all dimensions were rated highly, revealing positive perception of context. Significant differences between districts were found for the Work culture, Leadership, and Informal payment dimensions. Responses to many items had low variance and were left-skewed. Conclusions: COACH was comprehensible and demonstrated good reliability, although biases may have influenced participants' responses. The study suggests that COACH has the potential to evaluate the healthcare context to identify shortcomings and enable the tailoring of strategies ahead of implementation. Supplementing the tool with qualitative approaches will provide an in-depth understanding of the healthcare context.
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