| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Hillier, Ladeana W, et al.
(författare)
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Sequence and comparative analysis of the chicken genome provide unique perspectives on vertebrate evolution
- 2004
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Ingår i: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 432:7018, s. 695-716
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present here a draft genome sequence of the red jungle fowl, Gallus gallus. Because the chicken is a modern descendant of the dinosaurs and the first non-mammalian amniote to have its genome sequenced, the draft sequence of its genome--composed of approximately one billion base pairs of sequence and an estimated 20,000-23,000 genes--provides a new perspective on vertebrate genome evolution, while also improving the annotation of mammalian genomes. For example, the evolutionary distance between chicken and human provides high specificity in detecting functional elements, both non-coding and coding. Notably, many conserved non-coding sequences are far from genes and cannot be assigned to defined functional classes. In coding regions the evolutionary dynamics of protein domains and orthologous groups illustrate processes that distinguish the lineages leading to birds and mammals. The distinctive properties of avian microchromosomes, together with the inferred patterns of conserved synteny, provide additional insights into vertebrate chromosome architecture.
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| 3. |
- Abbasi, Rasha, et al.
(författare)
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IceCube search for neutrinos from GRB 221009A
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 38th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2023). - : Sissa Medialab Srl.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- GRB 221009A is the brightest Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) ever observed. The observed extremelyhigh flux of high and very-high-energy photons provide a unique opportunity to probe the predictedneutrino counterpart to the electromagnetic emission. We have used a variety of methods to searchfor neutrinos in coincidence with the GRB over several time windows during the precursor, promptand afterglow phases of the GRB. MeV scale neutrinos are studied using photo-multiplier ratescalers which are normally used to search for galactic core-collapse supernovae neutrinos. GeVneutrinos are searched starting with DeepCore triggers. These events don’t have directionallocalization, but instead can indicate an excess in the rate of events. 10 GeV - 1 TeV and >TeVneutrinos are searched using traditional neutrino point source methods which take into accountthe direction and time of events with DeepCore and the entire IceCube detector respectively. The>TeV results include both a fast-response analysis conducted by IceCube in real-time with timewindows of T0 − 1 to T0 + 2 hours and T0 ± 1 day around the time of GRB 221009A, as well asan offline analysis with 3 new time windows up to a time window of T0 − 1 to T0 + 14 days, thelongest time period we consider. The combination of observations by IceCube covers 9 ordersof magnitude in neutrino energy, from MeV to PeV, placing upper limits across the range forpredicted neutrino emission.
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| 4. |
- Speakman, John R., et al.
(författare)
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Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Metabolism. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2522-5812. ; 5:4, s. 579-588
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance(1,2). Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated(3,4). Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.
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| 5. |
- MacDonald, Robert P., et al.
(författare)
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An Interactive Planetary Boundaries Systems Thinking Learning Tool to Integrate Sustainability into the Chemistry Curriculum
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Education. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0021-9584 .- 1938-1328. ; 99:10, s. 3530-3539
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability has a molecular basis that suggests a central role for chemistry in addressing today’s challenges to Earth and societal systems, and this role requires educators to see chemical reactions and processes as integral parts of dynamic and interconnected systems. Despite this prospect, few accessible resources are available for students and educators to facilitate systems thinking in chemistry for sustainability. We have developed an interactive digital learning tool (https://planetaryboundaries.kcvs.ca) based on the Planetary Boundaries framework, which uses interactive visualizations to help users better understand Earth system sustainability challenges and helps chemists and educators connect substances, reactions, and chemistry concepts to sustainability science. The tool highlights the fundamental role that chemistry plays in regulating the individual biophysical Earth system processes and in determining their control variables. It incorporates key features of a systems thinking framework by illustrating the dynamic interconnections among the processes and their control variables and demonstrates change of the Earth system over time. Finally, the interactive tool provides educators with accessible entry points to support the integration of chemistry curriculum content with sustainability considerations.
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| 6. |
- Dupont, Chris L., et al.
(författare)
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Functional Tradeoffs Underpin Salinity-Driven Divergence in Microbial Community Composition
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:2, s. e89549-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bacterial community composition and functional potential change subtly across gradients in the surface ocean. In contrast, while there are significant phylogenetic divergences between communities from freshwater and marine habitats, the underlying mechanisms to this phylogenetic structuring yet remain unknown. We hypothesized that the functional potential of natural bacterial communities is linked to this striking divide between microbiomes. To test this hypothesis, metagenomic sequencing of microbial communities along a 1,800 km transect in the Baltic Sea area, encompassing a continuous natural salinity gradient from limnic to fully marine conditions, was explored. Multivariate statistical analyses showed that salinity is the main determinant of dramatic changes in microbial community composition, but also of large scale changes in core metabolic functions of bacteria. Strikingly, genetically and metabolically different pathways for key metabolic processes, such as respiration, biosynthesis of quinones and isoprenoids, glycolysis and osmolyte transport, were differentially abundant at high and low salinities. These shifts in functional capacities were observed at multiple taxonomic levels and within dominant bacterial phyla, while bacteria, such as SAR11, were able to adapt to the entire salinity gradient. We propose that the large differences in central metabolism required at high and low salinities dictate the striking divide between freshwater and marine microbiomes, and that the ability to inhabit different salinity regimes evolved early during bacterial phylogenetic differentiation. These findings significantly advance our understanding of microbial distributions and stress the need to incorporate salinity in future climate change models that predict increased levels of precipitation and a reduction in salinity.
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| 7. |
- Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 63-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka.New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.
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| 8. |
- Allen-Perkins, Alfonso, et al.
(författare)
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CropPol : a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 103:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seventy five percent of the world's food crops benefit from insect pollination. Hence, there has been increased interest in how global change drivers impact this critical ecosystem service. Because standardized data on crop pollination are rarely available, we are limited in our capacity to understand the variation in pollination benefits to crop yield, as well as to anticipate changes in this service, develop predictions, and inform management actions. Here, we present CropPol, a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination. It contains measurements recorded from 202 crop studies, covering 3,394 field observations, 2,552 yield measurements (i.e. berry weight, number of fruits and kg per hectare, among others), and 47,752 insect records from 48 commercial crops distributed around the globe. CropPol comprises 32 of the 87 leading global crops and commodities that are pollinator dependent. Malus domestica is the most represented crop (32 studies), followed by Brassica napus (22 studies), Vaccinium corymbosum (13 studies), and Citrullus lanatus (12 studies). The most abundant pollinator guilds recorded are honey bees (34.22% counts), bumblebees (19.19%), flies other than Syrphidae and Bombyliidae (13.18%), other wild bees (13.13%), beetles (10.97%), Syrphidae (4.87%), and Bombyliidae (0.05%). Locations comprise 34 countries distributed among Europe (76 studies), Northern America (60), Latin America and the Caribbean (29), Asia (20), Oceania (10), and Africa (7). Sampling spans three decades and is concentrated on 2001-05 (21 studies), 2006-10 (40), 2011-15 (88), and 2016-20 (50). This is the most comprehensive open global data set on measurements of crop flower visitors, crop pollinators and pollination to date, and we encourage researchers to add more datasets to this database in the future. This data set is released for non-commercial use only. Credits should be given to this paper (i.e., proper citation), and the products generated with this database should be shared under the same license terms (CC BY-NC-SA). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Liu, Chang, et al.
(författare)
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SN 2022joj : A Peculiar Type Ia Supernova Possibly Driven by an Asymmetric Helium-shell Double Detonation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 958:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present observations of SN 2022joj, a peculiar Type Ia supernova discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility. SN 2022joj exhibits an unusually red g ZTF - r ZTF color at early times and a rapid blueward evolution afterward. Around maximum brightness, SN 2022joj shows a high luminosity ( MgZTF,max similar or equal to-19.7 mag), a blue broadband color (g ZTF - r ZTF similar or equal to -0.2 mag), and shallow Si ii absorption lines, consistent with those of overluminous, SN 1991T-like events. The maximum-light spectrum also shows prominent absorption around 4200 angstrom, which resembles the Ti ii features in subluminous, SN 1991bg-like events. Despite the blue optical-band colors, SN 2022joj exhibits extremely red ultraviolet minus optical colors at maximum luminosity (u - v similar or equal to 0.6 mag and uvw1 - v similar or equal to 2.5 mag), suggesting a suppression of flux at similar to 2500-4000 angstrom. Strong C ii lines are also detected at peak. We show that these unusual spectroscopic properties are broadly consistent with the helium-shell double detonation of a sub-Chandrasekhar mass (M similar or equal to 1 M circle dot) carbon/oxygen white dwarf from a relatively massive helium shell (M s similar or equal to 0.04-0.1 M circle dot), if observed along a line of sight roughly opposite to where the shell initially detonates. None of the existing models could quantitatively explain all the peculiarities observed in SN 2022joj. The low flux ratio of [Ni ii] lambda 7378 to [Fe ii] lambda 7155 emission in the late-time nebular spectra indicates a low yield of stable Ni isotopes, favoring a sub-Chandrasekhar mass progenitor. The significant blueshift measured in the [Fe ii] lambda 7155 line is also consistent with an asymmetric chemical distribution in the ejecta, as is predicted in double-detonation models.
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