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  • Fullman, N., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
  • Resic-Lindehammer, Sabina, et al. (författare)
  • Temporal trends of HLA genotype frequencies of type 1 diabetes patients in Sweden from 1986 to 2005 suggest altered risk
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Acta Diabetologica. - : Springer. - 0940-5429 .- 1432-5233. ; 45:4, s. 231-235
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes in 1-18-year-old patients with type 1 diabetes newly diagnosed in 1986-1987 (n = 430), 1996-2000 (n = 342) and in 2003-2005 (n = 171). We tested the hypothesis that the HLA DQ genotype distribution changes over time. Swedish type 1 diabetes patients and controls were typed for HLA using polymerase chain reaction amplification and allele specific probes for DQ A1* and B1* alleles. The most common type 1 diabetes HLA DQA1*-B1*genotype 0501-0201/0301-0302 was 36% (153/430) in 1986-1987 and 37% (127/342) in 1996-2000, but decreased to 19% (33/171) in 2003-2005 (P \ 0.0001). The 0501-0201/0501-0201 genotype increased from 1% in 1986-1987 to 7% in 1996-2000 (P = 0.0047) and to 5% in 2003-2005 (P > 0.05). This study in 1-18-year-old Swedish type 1 diabetes patients supports the notion that there is a temporal change in HLA risk.
  • Juliusson, Gunnar, et al. (författare)
  • Attitude towards remission induction for elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia influences survival.
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Leukemia. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1476-5551 .- 0887-6924. ; 20:1, s. 42-47
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Combination chemotherapy may induce remission from acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but validated criteria for treatment of elderly are lacking. The remission intention ( RI) rate for elderly patients, as reported to the Swedish Leukemia Registry, was known to be different when comparing the six health care regions, but the consequences of different management are unknown. The Leukemia Registry, containing 1672 AML patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2001, with 98% coverage and a median follow-up of 4 years, was completed with data from the compulsory cancer and population registries. Among 506 treated and untreated patients aged 70-79 years with AML (non-APL), there was a direct correlation between the RI rate in each health region ( range 36-76%) and the two-year overall survival, with no censored observations (6-21%) ( v 2 for trend = 11.3, P < 0.001; r(2) = 0.86, P < 0.02, nonparametric). A 1-month landmark analysis showed significantly better survival in regions with higher RI rates ( P = 0.003). Differences could not be explained by demographics, and was found in both de novo and secondary leukemias. The 5-year survival of the overall population aged 70-79 years was similar between the regions. Survival of 70-79-year-old AML patients is better in regions where more elderly patients are judged eligible for remission induction.
  • Sandblom, G, et al. (författare)
  • Prostate-specific antigen for prostate cancer staging in a population-based register.
  • 2002
  • Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Urology and Nephrology. - 0036-5599 .- 1651-2065. ; 36:2, s. 99-105
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have shown a relationship between serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and prostate tumour volume. Reports based on selected case series have also indicated that serum PSA may be used for staging, although a varying prevalence of metastasizing tumours complicates the interpretation of these studies. In order to determine the accuracy of the serum level of PSA in predicting the presence of metastases we performed a prospective cohort study of a geographically defined population of men with prostate cancer.METHODS: Serum level of PSA and the results of investigations for regional lymph node and distant metastases were recorded for all 8328 men with prostate cancer registered in the Swedish National Prostate Cancer Register 1996-1997.RESULTS: The prevalence of lymph node metastases among men who had undergone lymph node exploration was 4%, 16% and 33% for well, moderately and poorly differentiated tumours. The corresponding prevalence of distant metastases was 12%, 30% and 48%. With serum PSA <20 ng/ml as a cut-off point the negative likelihood ratios for well and moderately differentiated tumours were found to be 0.47 and 0.45 for lymph node metastases and 0.24 and 0.18 for distant metastases, resulting in post-test probabilities >92% for the exclusion of metastases. In men with poorly differentiated tumours, the negative likelihood ratio would need to be even lower to safely exclude disseminated disease.CONCLUSION: For well to moderately differentiated tumours, further investigations to assess the presence of metastases may be omitted with no great risk for understaging if serum PSA <20 ng/ml.
  • Sedimbi, S. K., et al. (författare)
  • SUMO4 M55V polymorphism affects susceptibility to type I diabetes in HLA DR3- and DR4-positive Swedish patients
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Genes Immun. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1466-4879 .- 1476-5470. ; 8:6, s. 518-21
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • SUMO4 M55V, located in IDDM5, has been a focus for debate because of its association to type I diabetes (TIDM) in Asians but not in Caucasians. The current study aims to test the significance of M55V association to TIDM in a large cohort of Swedish Caucasians, and to test whether M55V is associated in those carrying human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II molecules. A total of 673 TIDM patients and 535 age- and sex-matched healthy controls were included in the study. PCR-RFLP was performed to identify the genotype and allele variations. Our data suggest that SUMO4 M55V is not associated with susceptibility to TIDM by itself. When we stratified our patients and controls based on heterozygosity for HLA-DR3/DR4 and SUMO4 genotypes, we found that presence of SUMO4 GG increased further the relative risk conferred by HLA-DR3/DR4 to TIDM, whereas SUMO4 AA decreased the risk. From the current study, we conclude that SUMO4 M55V is associated with TIDM in association with high-risk HLA-DR3 and DR4, but not by itself.
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