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1.
  • Fullman, N., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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5.
  • Sedimbi, S. K., et al. (författare)
  • SUMO4 M55V polymorphism affects susceptibility to type I diabetes in HLA DR3- and DR4-positive Swedish patients
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Genes Immun. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1466-4879 .- 1476-5470. ; 8:6, s. 518-21
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • SUMO4 M55V, located in IDDM5, has been a focus for debate because of its association to type I diabetes (TIDM) in Asians but not in Caucasians. The current study aims to test the significance of M55V association to TIDM in a large cohort of Swedish Caucasians, and to test whether M55V is associated in those carrying human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II molecules. A total of 673 TIDM patients and 535 age- and sex-matched healthy controls were included in the study. PCR-RFLP was performed to identify the genotype and allele variations. Our data suggest that SUMO4 M55V is not associated with susceptibility to TIDM by itself. When we stratified our patients and controls based on heterozygosity for HLA-DR3/DR4 and SUMO4 genotypes, we found that presence of SUMO4 GG increased further the relative risk conferred by HLA-DR3/DR4 to TIDM, whereas SUMO4 AA decreased the risk. From the current study, we conclude that SUMO4 M55V is associated with TIDM in association with high-risk HLA-DR3 and DR4, but not by itself.
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6.
  • Shin, J. H., et al. (författare)
  • IA-2 autoantibodies in incident type I diabetes patients are associated with a polyadenylation signal polymorphism in GIMAP5
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Genes Immun. - 1466-4879 .- 1476-5470. ; 8:6, s. 503-12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In a large case-control study of Swedish incident type I diabetes patients and controls, 0-34 years of age, we tested the hypothesis that the GIMAP5 gene, a key genetic factor for lymphopenia in spontaneous BioBreeding rat diabetes, is associated with type I diabetes; with islet autoantibodies in incident type I diabetes patients or with age at clinical onset in incident type I diabetes patients. Initial scans of allelic association were followed by more detailed logistic regression modeling that adjusted for known type I diabetes risk factors and potential confounding variables. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6598, located in a polyadenylation signal of GIMAP5, was associated with the presence of significant levels of IA-2 autoantibodies in the type I diabetes patients. Patients with the minor allele A of rs6598 had an increased prevalence of IA-2 autoantibody levels compared to patients without the minor allele (OR=2.2; Bonferroni-corrected P=0.003), after adjusting for age at clinical onset (P=8.0 x 10(-13)) and the numbers of HLA-DQ A1*0501-B1*0201 haplotypes (P=2.4 x 10(-5)) and DQ A1*0301-B1*0302 haplotypes (P=0.002). GIMAP5 polymorphism was not associated with type I diabetes or with GAD65 or insulin autoantibodies, ICA, or age at clinical onset in patients. These data suggest that the GIMAP5 gene is associated with islet autoimmunity in type I diabetes and add to recent findings implicating the same SNP in another autoimmune disease.
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  • Abe, O, et al. (författare)
  • Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X. ; 365:9472, s. 1687-1717
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5-year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects. Methods Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxombicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modem aromatase inhibitors. Findings Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0 . 0001 for recurrence, 2p<0 . 00001 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than CMF chemotherapy. Few women of age 70 years or older entered these chemotherapy trials. For ER-positive disease only, allocation to about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by 31% (SE 3), largely irrespective of the use of chemotherapy and of age (<50, 50-69, &GE; 70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0 . 00001 for recurrence, 2p=0 . 01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis. These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14 000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14 000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15 000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33 000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18 000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments. For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes. Interpretation Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs.
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10.
  • Schaedel, Charlotta, et al. (författare)
  • Predictors of deterioration of lung function in cystic fibrosis.
  • 2002
  • Ingår i: Pediatric Pulmonology. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 8755-6863 .- 1099-0496. ; 33:6, s. 483-491
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The severity of lung disease in cystic fibrosis (CF) may be related to the type of mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene, and to environmental and immunological factors. Since pulmonary disease is the main determinant of morbidity and mortality in CF, it is important to identify factors that can explain and predict this variation. The aim of this longitudinal study of the whole Swedish CF population over age 7 years was to correlate genetic and clinical data with the rate of decline in pulmonary function. The statistical analysis was performed using the mixed model regression method, supplemented with calculation of relative risks for severe lung disease in age cohorts.The severity of pulmonary disease was to some extent predicted by CFTR genotype. Furthermore, the present investigation is the first long-term study showing a significantly more rapid deterioration of lung function in patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus. Besides diabetes mellitus, pancreatic insufficiency and chronic Pseudomonas colonization were found to be negative predictors of pulmonary function. In contrast to several other reports, we found no significant differences in lung function between genders. Patients with pancreatic sufficiency have no or only a slight decline of lung function with age once treatment is started, but an early diagnosis in this group is desirable.
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