| 1. |
- Bentley, Michael J., et al.
(författare)
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A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 100, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse la. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.
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| 2. |
- Fazey, Ioan, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth : Visions of future systems and how to get there
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.
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| 3. |
- Kivipelto, Miia, et al.
(författare)
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World-Wide FINGERS Network : A global approach to risk reduction and prevention of dementia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Alzheimer's & Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 16:7, s. 1078-1094
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reducing the risk of dementia can halt the worldwide increase of affected people. The multifactorial and heterogeneous nature of late-onset dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD), indicates a potential impact of multidomain lifestyle interventions on risk reduction. The positive results of the landmark multidomain Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) support such an approach. The World-Wide FINGERS (WW-FINGERS), launched in 2017 and including over 25 countries, is the first global network of multidomain lifestyle intervention trials for dementia risk reduction and prevention. WW-FINGERS aims to adapt, test, and optimize the FINGER model to reduce risk across the spectrum of cognitive decline-from at-risk asymptomatic states to early symptomatic stages-in different geographical, cultural, and economic settings. WW-FINGERS aims to harmonize and adapt multidomain interventions across various countries and settings, to facilitate data sharing and analysis across studies, and to promote international joint initiatives to identify globally implementable and effective preventive strategies.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Santangelo, James S., et al.
(författare)
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Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural dines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale.
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| 6. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 7. |
- Abazajian, Kevork, et al.
(författare)
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CMB-S4 : Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 926:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.
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| 8. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 9. |
- Anderson, John B., et al.
(författare)
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Ross Sea paleo-ice sheet drainage and deglacial history during and since the LGM
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 100, s. 31-54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Onshore and offshore studies show that an expanded, grounded ice sheet occupied the Ross Sea Embayment during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Results from studies of till provenance and the orientation of geomorphic features on the continental shelf show that more than half of the grounded ice sheet consisted of East Antarctic ice flowing through Transantarctic Mountain (TAM) outlet glaciers; the remainder came from West Antarctica. Terrestrial data indicate little or no thickening in the upper catchment regions in both West and East Antarctica during the LGM. In contrast, evidence from the mouths of the southern and central TAM outlet glaciers indicate surface elevations between 1000 m and 1100 m (above present-day sea level). Farther north along the western margin of the Ross Ice Sheet, surface elevations reached 720 m on Ross Island, and 400 m at Terra Nova Bay. Evidence from Marie Byrd Land at the eastern margin of the ice sheet indicates that the elevation near the present-day grounding line was more than 800 m asl, while at Siple Dome in the central Ross Embayment, the surface elevation was about 950 m asl. Farther north, evidence that the ice sheet was grounded on the middle and the outer continental shelf during the LGM implies that surface elevations had to be at least 100 m above the LGM sea level. The apparent low surface profile and implied low basal shear stress in the central and eastern embayment suggests that although the ice streams may have slowed during the LGM, they remained active. Ice-sheet retreat from the western Ross Embayment during the Holocene is constrained by marine and terrestrial data. Ages from marine sediments suggest that the grounding line had retreated from its LGM outer shelf location only a few tens of kilometer to a location south of Coulman Island by similar to 13 ka BP. The ice sheet margin was located in the vicinity of the Drygalski Ice Tongue by similar to 11 ka BP, just north of Ross Island by similar to 7.8 ka BP, and near Hatherton Glacier by similar to 6.8 ka BP. Farther south, Be-10 exposure ages from glacial erratics on nunataks near the mouths of Reedy, Scott and Beardmore Glaciers indicate thinning during the mid to late Holocene, but the grounding line did not reach its present position until 2 to 3 ka BP. Marine dates, which are almost exclusively Acid Insoluble Organic (AIO) dates, are consistently older than those derived from terrestrial data. However, even these ages indicate that the ice sheet experienced significant retreat after similar to 13 ka BP. Geomorphic features indicate that during the final stages of ice sheet retreat ice flowing through the TAM remained grounded on the shallow western margin of Ross Sea. The timing of retreat from the central Ross Sea remains unresolved; the simplest reconstruction is to assume that the grounding line here started to retreat from the continental shelf more or less in step with the retreat from the western and eastern sectors. An alternative hypothesis, which relies on the validity of radiocarbon ages from marine sediments, is that grounded ice had retreated from the outer continental shelf prior to the LGM. More reliable ages from marine sediments in the central Ross Embayment are needed to test and validate this hypothesis.
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| 10. |
- Bechtle, Philip, et al.
(författare)
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The light and heavy Higgs interpretation of the MSSM
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform a parameter scan of the phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (pMSSM) with eight parameters taking into account the experimental Higgs boson results from Run I of the LHC and further low-energy observables. We investigate various MSSM interpretations of the Higgs signal at 125 GeV. First, we consider the case where the light CP-even Higgs boson of the MSSM is identified with the discovered Higgs boson. In this case it can impersonate the SM Higgs-like signal either in the decoupling limit, or in the limit of alignment without decoupling. In the latter case, the other states in the Higgs sector can also be light, offering good prospects for upcoming LHC searches and for searches at future colliders. Second, we demonstrate that the heavy CP-even Higgs boson is still a viable candidate to explain the Higgs signal - albeit only in a highly constrained parameter region, that will be probed by LHC searches for the CP-odd Higgs boson and the charged Higgs boson in the near future. As a guidance for such searches we provide new benchmark scenarios that can be employed to maximize the sensitivity of the experimental analysis to this interpretation.
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