| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(author)
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Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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| 3. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(author)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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In: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 4. |
- Andersson, Erik, et al.
(author)
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Ambio fit for the 2020s
- 2022
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In: Ambio. - : Springer Nature. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51:5, s. 1091-1093
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 5. |
- Gallego-Sala, Angela V., et al.
(author)
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Latitudinal limits to the predicted increase of the peatland carbon sink with warming
- 2018
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:10, s. 907-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.
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| 6. |
- Powers, Mark B., et al.
(author)
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Nonpharmacologic Pain Management Among Hospitalized Inpatients : A Randomized Waitlist-Controlled Trial of Standard Virtual Reality (CGI VR) Versus Video Capture VR (360 degrees 3D/Stereoscopic Video Capture VR)
- 2021
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In: The Clinical Journal of Pain. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0749-8047 .- 1536-5409. ; 37:9, s. 678-687
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Nonpharmacologic pain management strategies are needed because of the growing opioid epidemic. While studies have examined the efficacy of virtual reality (VR) for pain reduction, there is little research in adult inpatient settings, and no studies comparing the relative efficacy of standard animated computer-generated imagery (CGI) VR to Video Capture VR (360 degrees 3D/stereoscopic Video Capture VR). Here, we report on a randomized controlled trial of the relative efficacy of standard CGI VR versus Video Capture VR (matched for content) and also compared the overall efficacy of VR to a waitlist control group.Materials and Methods: Participants (N=103 hospitalized inpatients reporting pain) were randomized to 1 of 3 conditions: (1) waitlist control, (2) CGI VR, or (3) Video Capture VR. The VR and waitlist conditions were 10 minutes in length. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, post-treatment, and after a brief follow-up.Results: Consistent with hypotheses, both VR conditions reduced pain significantly more relative to the waitlist control condition (d=1.60, P<0.001) and pain reductions were largely maintained at the brief follow-up assessment. Both VR conditions reduced pain by ∼50% and led to improvements in mood, anxiety, and relaxation. Contrary to prediction, the Video Capture VR condition was not significantly more effective at reducing pain relative to the CGI VR condition (d=0.25, P=0.216). However, as expected, patients randomized to the Video Capture VR rated their experience as more positive and realistic (d=0.78, P=0.002).Discussion: Video Capture VR was as effective as CGI VR for pain reduction and was rated as more realistic.
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| 7. |
- Weldemariam, Kassahun, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Critical Analysis of Concepts Associated with Sustainability in Early Childhood Curriculum Frameworks Across Five National Contexts
- 2017
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In: International Journal of Early Childhood. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7187 .- 1878-4658. ; 49:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Abstract Curriculum frameworks have an important role in providing guidance to early childhood practitioners on how to integrate knowledge about sustainability into their practice. This article examines how ideas about sustainability are integrated in the early childhood curricula for Australia, England, Norway, Sweden and the USA. The analyses were guided by critical inquiry and a cross-national dialogue and focused on four aspects of the curricula: sustainability presence, views of the child, human–environment relationship and philosophical/theoretical underpinnings on ideas expressed about sustainability. Ideas about sustainability were more implicitly present than explicitly stated in most curricula. It was not evident that children were viewed as world citizens with agency to help foster sustainability. With respect to human–environmental relationship, the framework from Australia expressed greater reciprocity and entanglement, while other frameworks were more anthropocentric despite the variation among curricula. All five frameworks embodied a sociocultural, human development approach with respect to the philosophical and theoretical underpinnings. There is a need to consider alternative frameworks that offer broader and more inclusive worldviews about sustainability that includes embracing human, non-human and other species within an assemblage of common worlds.
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| 8. |
- Amano, Tatsuya, et al.
(author)
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Transforming Practice : Checklists for Delivering Change
- 2022
-
In: Transforming Conservation : A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making - A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making. - 9781800648586 - 9781800648562 ; , s. 367-386
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Delivering a revolution in evidence use requires a cultural change across society. For a wide range of groups (practitioners, knowledge brokers, organisations, organisational leaders, policy makers, funders, researchers, journal publishers, the wider conservation community, educators, writers, and journalists), options are described to facilitate a change in practice, and a series of downloadable checklists is provided.
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| 9. |
- Kilic, Aysenur, et al.
(author)
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A 12-month longitudinal study examining the shared and unique contributions of self-compassion and psychological inflexibility to distress and quality of life in people with Type 2 Diabetes
- 2022
-
In: Journal of Psychosomatic Research. - : Elsevier. - 0022-3999 .- 1879-1360. ; 155
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Self-compassion and psychological flexibility appear to benefit wellbeing and quality of life (QoL) in the general population and in people with long-term conditions like Type 2 Diabetes (T2D). However, both variables share similarities and their unique roles in relation to distress and QoL in people with diabetes over time are not clear.Design: This was a longitudinal study with online assessments of self-compassion, psychological inflexibility, distress (depression, anxiety, diabetes-distress), and QoL at baseline (T1) and six (T2) and 12 months (T3). Methods: In total, 173 UK adults with T2D completed baseline questionnaires; T2 and T3 follow-ups were completed by 82 and 52 participants, respectively. Correlations were conducted to understand the relationships between variables at each time point. Hierarchical regressions were conducted to understand the unique predictive role of baseline self-compassion and psychological inflexibility in relation to distress and QoL at T2 and T3, controlling for age and baseline distress and QoL.Results: There were large significant negative correlations between self-compassion and psychological inflexibility (r >-0.50), and both had significant large correlations with distress (r >-0.50) but not QoL across time points. Regressions indicated that psychological inflexibility uniquely predicted depression (T2) and anxiety symptoms (T2 and T3) and QoL (T3). Self-compassion did not uniquely predict any of the outcomes.Conclusions: Psychological inflexibility may play an important role in distress in T2D, but prospective studies with larger samples are needed to replicate these findings. Given the overlap between psychological inflexibility and self-compassion, treatments targeting either variable may be useful.
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| 10. |
- Kilic, Aysenur, et al.
(author)
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A Systematic Review of the Effectiveness of Self-Compassion-Related Interventions for Individuals With Chronic Physical Health Conditions
- 2021
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In: Behavior Therapy. - : Elsevier. - 0005-7894 .- 1878-1888. ; 52:3, s. 607-625
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Self-compassion, defined as a mindful way of coping with pain and suffering by showing kindness, care, and concern towards the self, may improve psychological adjustment in people living with a chronic physical health condition (CPHC). Various studies illustrate that self-compassion is associated with positive outcomes in general. The aim of this systematic review is to establish the effect of compassion-related therapies on self-compassion specifically in people with CPHCs. Secondary aims are to (a) establish the effect on other psychological and physiological outcomes and (b) explore the relative effectiveness of different therapy types among those identified. Cochrane, Embase, Medline, Psy-cINFO, and CINAHL databases were searched using & ldquo;compassion & rdquo; AND & ldquo;chronic disease & rdquo; AND & ldquo;psychological outcomes & rdquo; and their synonyms, from 2004 to March 2019. Eligible studies had an experimental design using a self-compassion scale with an adult population. Risk of bias (RoB)& nbsp;was assessed using the Cochrane RoB tool. Effect sizes were calculated for study outcomes. Fifteen studies, including a total of 1,190 participants, 7 different CPHCs, and 11 types of therapies, were included in the review. Nearly all included therapies significantly increased self-compassion with medi-um to large effect sizes, and reported positive outcomes, such as decreased depression. None of the therapy types appeared clearly superior to the others. Findings from this review show that included therapies increased self-compassion and im -proved various outcomes, which may represent clinically significant benefits for patients. However, there is a need to further understand how self-compassion exerts its benefits and determine the best methods to increase self-compassion.
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