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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Clark, Andrew G., et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny
- 2007
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
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| 4. |
- Blain, H., et al.
(författare)
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A comprehensive fracture prevention strategy in older adults : the European union geriatric medicine society (EUGMS) statement
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Geriatric Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 1878-7649 .- 1878-7657. ; 7:6, s. 519-525
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Prevention of fragility fractures in older people has become a public health priority, although the most appropriate and cost-effective strategy remains unclear. In the present statement, the Interest group on falls and fracture prevention of the European union geriatric medicine society (EUGMS), in collaboration with the International association of gerontology and geriatrics for the European region (IAGG-ER), the European union of medical specialists (EUMS), the Fragility fracture network (FFN), the International osteoporosis foundation (IOF) - European society for clinical and economic aspects of osteoporosis and osteoarthritis (ECCEO), outlines its views on the main points in the current debate in relation to the primary and secondary prevention of falls, the diagnosis and treatment of bone fragility, and the place of combined falls and fracture liaison services for fracture prevention in older people.
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| 6. |
- Naafs, B. D. A., et al.
(författare)
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Introducing global peat-specific temperature and pH calibrations based on brGDGT bacterial lipids
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0016-7037 .- 1872-9533. ; 208, s. 285-301
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are membrane-spanning lipids from Bacteria and Archaea that are ubiquitous in a range of natural archives and especially abundant in peat. Previous work demonstrated that the distribution of bacterial branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) in mineral soils is correlated to environmental factors such as mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and soil pH. However, the influence of these parameters on brGDGT distributions in peat is largely unknown. Here we investigate the distribution of brGDGTs in 470 samples from 96 peatlands around the world with a broad mean annual air temperature (-8 to 27 degrees C) and pH (3-8) range and present the first peat-specific brGDGT-based temperature and pH calibrations. Our results demonstrate that the degree of cyclisation of brGDGTs in peat is positively correlated with pH, pH = 2.49 x CBTpeat + 8.07 (n = 51, R-2 = 0.58, RMSE = 0.8) and the degree of methylation of brGDGTs is positively correlated with MAAT, MAAT(peat) (degrees C) = 52.18 x MBT'(5me) - 23.05 (n = 96, R-2 = 0.76, RMSE = 4.7 degrees C). These peat-specific calibrations are distinct from the available mineral soil calibrations. In light of the error in the temperature calibration (similar to 4.7 degrees C), we urge caution in any application to reconstruct late Holocene climate variability, where the climatic signals are relatively small, and the duration of excursions could be brief. Instead, these proxies are well-suited to reconstruct large amplitude, longer-term shifts in climate such as deglacial transitions. Indeed, when applied to a peat deposit spanning the late glacial period (similar to 15.2 kyr), we demonstrate that MAAT(peat) yields absolute temperatures and relative temperature changes that are consistent with those from other proxies. In addition, the application of MAAT(peat) to fossil peat (i.e. lignites) has the potential to reconstruct terrestrial climate during the Cenozoic. We conclude that there is clear potential to use brGDGTs in peats and lignites to reconstruct past terrestrial climate.
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| 7. |
- Vandenput, Liesbeth, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX : a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan
- 2022
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 33:10, s. 2103-2136
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Summary: We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.Introduction: The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.Methods: A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.Results: Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.Conclusions: These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).
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| 8. |
- Huang, X. F., et al.
(författare)
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Genomewide Association Study of Acute Anterior Uveitis Identifies New Susceptibility Loci
- 2020
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Ingår i: Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science. - : Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO). - 0146-0404 .- 1552-5783. ; 61:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE. Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) is a common intraocular inflammatory disease. AAU occurs in 30% to 50% of patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), and both conditions are strongly associated with human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B 27 , implying a shared etiology. This study aims to apply genomewide association study (GWAS) to characterize the genetic associations of AAU and their relationship to the genetics of AS. METHODS. We undertook the GWAS analyses in 2752 patients with AS with AAU (cases) and 3836 patients with AS without AAU (controls). There were 7,436,415 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) available alter SNP microarray genotyping, imputation, and quality-control filtering. RESULTS. We identified one locus associated with AAU at genomewide significance: rs9378248 (P = 2.69 x 10(-8), odds ratio [OR] = 0.78), lying close to HLA-B. Suggestive association was observed at 11 additional loci, including previously reported AS loci ERAP1 (rs27529, P = 2.19 x 10(-7), OR = 1.22) and NOS2 (rs2274894, P = 8.22 x 10(-7), OR = 0.83). Multiple novel suggestive associations were also identified, including MERTK (rsl0171979, P = 2.56 x 10(-6), OR = 1.20), KIFAP3 (rs508063, P = 5.64 x 10(-7), OR = 1.20), CLCN7 (rs67412457, P = 1.33 x 10(-6), OR = 1.25), ACAA2 (rs9947182, P = 9.70 x 10(-7), OR = 1.37), and 5 intergenic loci. The SNP-based heritability is approximately 0.5 for AS alone, and is much higher (approximately 0.7) for AS with AAU. Consistent with the high heritability, a genomewide polygenic risk score shows strong power in identifying individuals at high risk of either AS with AAU or AS alone. CONCLUSIONS. We report here the first GWAS for AAU and identify new susceptibility loci. Our findings confirm the strong overlap in etiopathogenesis of AAU with AS, and also provide new insights into the genetic basis of AAU.
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| 9. |
- Tsilidis, Konstantinos K., et al.
(författare)
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Genetically predicted circulating concentrations of micronutrients and risk of colorectal cancer among individuals of European descent : a Mendelian randomization study
- 2021
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 113:6, s. 1490-1502
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The literature on associations of circulating concentrations of minerals and vitamins with risk of colorectal cancer is limited and inconsistent. Evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to support the efficacy of dietary modification or nutrient supplementation for colorectal cancer prevention is also limited.OBJECTIVES: To complement observational and RCT findings, we investigated associations of genetically predicted concentrations of 11 micronutrients (β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, selenium, vitamin B-6, vitamin B-12, and zinc) with colorectal cancer risk using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Two-sample MR was conducted using 58,221 individuals with colorectal cancer and 67,694 controls from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. Inverse variance-weighted MR analyses were performed with sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential violations of MR assumptions.RESULTS: Nominally significant associations were noted for genetically predicted iron concentration and higher risk of colon cancer [ORs per SD (ORSD): 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17; P value = 0.05] and similarly for proximal colon cancer, and for vitamin B-12 concentration and higher risk of colorectal cancer (ORSD: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21; P value = 0.01) and similarly for colon cancer. A nominally significant association was also noted for genetically predicted selenium concentration and lower risk of colon cancer (ORSD: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00; P value = 0.05) and similarly for distal colon cancer. These associations were robust to sensitivity analyses. Nominally significant inverse associations were observed for zinc and risk of colorectal and distal colon cancers, but sensitivity analyses could not be performed. None of these findings survived correction for multiple testing. Genetically predicted concentrations of β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, magnesium, phosphorus, and vitamin B-6 were not associated with disease risk.CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest possible causal associations of circulating iron and vitamin B-12 (positively) and selenium (inversely) with risk of colon cancer.
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