| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 3. |
- Murray-Smith, Heidi, et al.
(author)
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Updating the study protocol: Insight 46-a longitudinal neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development - phases 2 and 3
- 2024
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In: BMC NEUROLOGY. - 1471-2377. ; 24:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundAlthough age is the biggest known risk factor for dementia, there remains uncertainty about other factors over the life course that contribute to a person's risk for cognitive decline later in life. Furthermore, the pathological processes leading to dementia are not fully understood. The main goals of Insight 46-a multi-phase longitudinal observational study-are to collect detailed cognitive, neurological, physical, cardiovascular, and sensory data; to combine those data with genetic and life-course information collected from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort); and thereby contribute to a better understanding of healthy ageing and dementia.Methods/DesignPhase 1 of Insight 46 (2015-2018) involved the recruitment of 502 members of the NSHD (median age = 70.7 years; 49% female) and has been described in detail by Lane and Parker et al. 2017. The present paper describes phase 2 (2018-2021) and phase 3 (2021-ongoing). Of the 502 phase 1 study members who were invited to a phase 2 research visit, 413 were willing to return for a clinic visit in London and 29 participated in a remote research assessment due to COVID-19 restrictions. Phase 3 aims to recruit 250 study members who previously participated in both phases 1 and 2 of Insight 46 (providing a third data time point) and 500 additional members of the NSHD who have not previously participated in Insight 46.DiscussionThe NSHD is the oldest and longest continuously running British birth cohort. Members of the NSHD are now at a critical point in their lives for us to investigate successful ageing and key age-related brain morbidities. Data collected from Insight 46 have the potential to greatly contribute to and impact the field of healthy ageing and dementia by combining unique life course data with longitudinal multiparametric clinical, imaging, and biomarker measurements. Further protocol enhancements are planned, including in-home sleep measurements and the engagement of participants through remote online cognitive testing. Data collected are and will continue to be made available to the scientific community.
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| 4. |
- Prokopenko, Inga, et al.
(author)
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Variants in MTNR1B influence fasting glucose levels
- 2009
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 41:1, s. 77-81
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To identify previously unknown genetic loci associated with fasting glucose concentrations, we examined the leading association signals in ten genome-wide association scans involving a total of 36,610 individuals of European descent. Variants in the gene encoding melatonin receptor 1B (MTNR1B) were consistently associated with fasting glucose across all ten studies. The strongest signal was observed at rs10830963, where each G allele (frequency 0.30 in HapMap CEU) was associated with an increase of 0.07 (95% CI = 0.06-0.08) mmol/l in fasting glucose levels (P = 3.2 x 10(-50)) and reduced beta-cell function as measured by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-B, P = 1.1 x 10(-15)). The same allele was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio = 1.09 (1.05-1.12), per G allele P = 3.3 x 10(-7)) in a meta-analysis of 13 case-control studies totaling 18,236 cases and 64,453 controls. Our analyses also confirm previous associations of fasting glucose with variants at the G6PC2 (rs560887, P = 1.1 x 10(-57)) and GCK (rs4607517, P = 1.0 x 10(-25)) loci.
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| 5. |
- Scott, Gregory, et al.
(author)
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Minocycline reduces chronic microglial activation after brain trauma but increases neurodegeneration.
- 2018
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In: Brain : a journal of neurology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2156 .- 1460-2156. ; 141:2, s. 459-471
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Survivors of a traumatic brain injury can deteriorate years later, developing brain atrophy and dementia. Traumatic brain injury triggers chronic microglial activation, but it is unclear whether this is harmful or beneficial. A successful chronic-phase treatment for traumatic brain injury might be to target microglia. In experimental models, the antibiotic minocycline inhibits microglial activation. We investigated the effect of minocycline on microglial activation and neurodegeneration using PET, MRI, and measurement of the axonal protein neurofilament light in plasma. Microglial activation was assessed using 11C-PBR28 PET. The relationships of microglial activation to measures of brain injury, and the effects of minocycline on disease progression, were assessed using structural and diffusion MRI, plasma neurofilament light, and cognitive assessment. Fifteen patients at least 6 months after a moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury received either minocycline 100 mg orally twice daily or no drug, for 12 weeks. At baseline, 11C-PBR28 binding in patients was increased compared to controls in cerebral white matter and thalamus, and plasma neurofilament light levels were elevated. MRI measures of white matter damage were highest in areas of greater 11C-PBR28 binding. Minocycline reduced 11C-PBR28 binding (mean Δwhite matter binding = -23.30%, 95% confidence interval -40.9 to -5.64%, P = 0.018), but increased plasma neurofilament light levels. Faster rates of brain atrophy were found in patients with higher baseline neurofilament light levels. In this experimental medicine study, minocycline after traumatic brain injury reduced chronic microglial activation while increasing a marker of neurodegeneration. These findings suggest that microglial activation has a reparative effect in the chronic phase of traumatic brain injury.
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| 6. |
- Vandenput, Liesbeth, et al.
(author)
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A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies
- 2024
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In: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 35:3, s. 469-494
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- SummaryThe relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm.IntroductionPrevious falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD).MethodsThe resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients.ResultsFalls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33–1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41–1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27–1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20–1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men.ConclusionsA previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.
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| 7. |
- Webb, Nicholas J A, et al.
(author)
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Multicentre prospective randomised trial of tacrolimus, azathioprine and prednisolone with or without basiliximab: two-year follow-up data.
- 2009
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In: Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-041X .- 1432-198X. ; 24:1, s. 177-82
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A total of 192 children and adolescents undergoing renal transplantation were randomly chosen to receive tacrolimus, azathioprine and corticosteroids (TAS, n = 93) or tacrolimus, azathioprine, corticosteroids and two doses of basiliximab (TAS + B, n = 99). Six-month outcome data have previously been reported; this manuscript reports the 2-year data. Complete 2-year data were available on 164 (85.4%) of the original 192 patients. There was a single death in the TAS arm. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival free of graft loss at 2 years were 94.9% in the TAS + B arm and 89.6% in the TAS arm [hazard ratio (HR) 0.52; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 1.54, P = 0.23]. Estimates of survival free from rejection at 2 years were 75.2% in the TAS + B arm and 68.7% in the TAS arm (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.46 to 1.40, P = 0.44). The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at 2 years, was 65.8 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) body surface area in the TAS arm and 66.7 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) in the TAS + B arm (P = 0.78). Blood pressure and cholesterol levels were similar in the two arms, and there was no evidence of a difference in the incidence of infection or malignancy. These data provide further evidence of a lack of benefit associated with the addition of basiliximab to a TAS regimen for European paediatric renal transplant recipients at low immunological risk.
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| 8. |
- Anney, Richard, et al.
(author)
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A genome-wide scan for common alleles affecting risk for autism.
- 2010
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In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 19:20, s. 4072-4082
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) have a substantial genetic basis, most of the known genetic risk has been traced to rare variants, principally copy number variants (CNVs). To identify common risk variation, the Autism Genome Project (AGP) Consortium genotyped 1558 rigorously defined ASD families for 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and analyzed these SNP genotypes for association with ASD. In one of four primary association analyses, the association signal for marker rs4141463, located within MACROD2, crossed the genome-wide association significance threshold of P < 5 × 10(-8). When a smaller replication sample was analyzed, the risk allele at rs4141463 was again over-transmitted; yet, consistent with the winner's curse, its effect size in the replication sample was much smaller; and, for the combined samples, the association signal barely fell below the P < 5 × 10(-8) threshold. Exploratory analyses of phenotypic subtypes yielded no significant associations after correction for multiple testing. They did, however, yield strong signals within several genes, KIAA0564, PLD5, POU6F2, ST8SIA2 and TAF1C.
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| 9. |
- Anney, Richard, et al.
(author)
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Individual common variants exert weak effects on the risk for autism spectrum disorders.
- 2012
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In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 21:21, s. 4781-92
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While it is apparent that rare variation can play an important role in the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorders (ASD), the contribution of common variation to ASD risk is less clear. To produce a more comprehensive picture, we report Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project genome-wide association study, adding 1301 ASD families and bringing the total to 2705 families analysed (Stages 1 and 2). In addition to evaluating association of individual SNPs, we also sought evidence that common variants, en masse, might affect risk. Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level. The SNP that achieves the smallest p-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101. It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD. This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2. By contrast, allele-scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case-status in the independent Stage 2 sample. Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%). Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele-score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect ASD risk but their individual effects are modest.
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| 10. |
- Bonfiglio, Ferdinando, et al.
(author)
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GWAS of stool frequency provides insights into gastrointestinal motility and irritable bowel syndrome
- 2021
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In: Cell Genomics. - Cambridge, MA, United States : Elsevier. - 2666-979X. ; 1:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gut dysmotility is associated with constipation, diarrhea, and functional gastrointestinal disorders like irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), although its molecular underpinnings are poorly characterized. We studied stool frequency (defined by the number of bowel movements per day, based on questionnaire data) as a proxy for gut motility in a GWAS meta-analysis including 167,875 individuals from UK Biobank and four smaller population-based cohorts. We identify 14 loci associated with stool frequency (p ≤ 5.0 × 10-8). Gene set and pathway analyses detected enrichment for genes involved in neurotransmitter/neuropeptide signaling and preferentially expressed in enteric motor neurons controlling peristalsis. PheWAS identified pleiotropic associations with dysmotility syndromes and the response to their pharmacological treatment. The genetic architecture of stool frequency correlates with that of IBS, and UK Biobank participants from the top 1% of stool frequency polygenic score distribution were associated with 5× higher risk of IBS with diarrhea. These findings pave the way for the identification of actionable pathological mechanisms in IBS and the dysmotility syndromes.
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