| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Aglago, Elom K., et al.
(författare)
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Dietary Advanced Glycation End-Products and Colorectal Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nutrients. - : MDPI. - 2072-6643. ; 13:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dietary advanced glycation end-products (dAGEs) have been hypothesized to be associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) by promoting inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, and oxidative stress in the colonic epithelium. However, evidence from prospective cohort studies is scarce and inconclusive. We evaluated CRC risk associated with the intake of dAGEs in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Dietary intakes of three major dAGEs: Nε-carboxy-methyllysine (CML), Nε-carboxyethyllysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) were estimated in 450,111 participants (median follow-up = 13 years, with 6162 CRC cases) by matching to a detailed published European food composition database. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of dAGEs with CRC were computed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Inverse CRC risk associations were observed for CML (HR comparing extreme quintiles: HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85-1.00) and MG-H1 (HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85-1.00), but not for CEL (HRQ5vs.Q1 = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.89-1.05). The associations did not differ by sex or anatomical location of the tumor. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, our findings suggest an inverse association between dAGEs and CRC risk. More research is required to verify these findings and better differentiate the role of dAGEs from that of endogenously produced AGEs and their precursor compounds in CRC development.
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| 3. |
- Butt, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Antibody Responses to Fusobacterium nucleatum Proteins in Prediagnostic Blood Samples are not Associated with Risk of Developing Colorectal Cancer
- 2019
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 28:9, s. 1552-1555
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There is a lack of prospective data on the potential association of Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) and colorectal cancer risk. In this study, we assessed whether antibody responses to F. nucleatum are associated with colorectal cancer risk in prediagnostic serum samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) cohort.Methods: We applied a multiplex serology assay to simultaneously measure antibody responses to 11 F. nucleatum antigens in prediagnostic serum samples from 485 colorectal cancer cases and 485 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: We observed neither a statistically significant colorectal cancer risk association for antibodies to individual F. nucleatum proteins nor for combined positivity to any of the 11 proteins (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.62–1.06).Conclusions: Antibody responses to F. nucleatum proteins in prediagnostic serum samples from a subset of colorectal cancer cases and matched controls within the EPIC study were not associated with colorectal cancer risk.Impact: Our findings in prospectively ascertained serum samples contradict the existing literature on the association of F. nucleatum with colorectal cancer risk. Future prospective studies, specifically detecting F. nucleatum in stool or tissue biopsies, are needed to complement our findings.
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| 4. |
- Hughes, David J, et al.
(författare)
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Selenium status is associated with colorectal cancer risk in the European prospective investigation of cancer and nutrition cohort.
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 136:5, s. 1149-1161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Suboptimal intakes of the micronutrient selenium (Se) are found in many parts of Europe. Low Se status may contribute to colorectal cancer (CRC) development. We assessed Se status by measuring serum levels of Se and Selenoprotein P (SePP) and examined the association with CRC risk in a nested case-control design (966 CRC cases; 966 matched controls) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Se was measured by total reflection X-ray fluorescence and SePP by immunoluminometric sandwich assay. Multivariable incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Respective mean Se and SePP levels were 84.0 μg/L and 4.3 mg/L in cases and 85.6 μg/L and 4.4 mg/L in controls. Higher Se concentrations were associated with a non-significant lower CRC risk (IRR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.82-1.03 per 25 μg/L increase). However, sub-group analyses by sex showed a statistically significant association for women (ptrend = 0.032; per 25 μg/L Se increase, IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70-0.97) but not for men. Higher SePP concentrations were inversely associated with CRC risk (ptrend = 0.009; per 0.806 mg/L increase, IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) with the association more apparent in women (ptrend = 0.004; IRR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.72-0.94 per 0.806 mg/L increase) than men (ptrend = 0.485; IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.86-1.12 per 0.806 mg/L increase). The findings indicate that Se status is suboptimal in many Europeans and suggest an inverse association between CRC risk and higher serum Se status, which is more evident in women.
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| 5. |
- Aglago, Elom K., et al.
(författare)
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Soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End-products (sRAGE) and Colorectal Cancer Risk : A Case-Control Study Nested within a European Prospective Cohort
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 30:1, s. 182-192
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Overexpression of the receptor for advanced glycation end-product (RAGE) has been associated with chronic inflammation, which in turn has been associated with increased colorectal cancer risk. Soluble RAGE (sRAGE) competes with RAGE to bind its ligands, thus potentially preventing RAGE-induced inflammation.METHODS: To investigate whether sRAGE and related genetic variants are associated with colorectal cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Plasma sRAGE concentrations were measured by ELISA in 1,361 colorectal cancer matched case-control sets. Twenty-four SNPs encoded in the genes associated with sRAGE concentrations were available for 1,985 colorectal cancer cases and 2,220 controls. Multivariable adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using conditional and unconditional logistic regression for colorectal cancer risk and circulating sRAGE and SNPs, respectively.RESULTS: Higher sRAGE concentrations were inversely associated with colorectal cancer (ORQ5vs.Q1, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59-1.00). Sex-specific analyses revealed that the observed inverse risk association was restricted to men (ORQ5vs.Q1, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.42-0.94), whereas no association was observed in women (ORQ5vs.Q1, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.68-1.48; Pheterogeneity for sex = 0.006). Participants carrying minor allele of rs653765 (promoter region of ADAM10) had lower colorectal cancer risk (C vs. T, OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99).CONCLUSIONS: Prediagnostic sRAGE concentrations were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in men, but not in women. An SNP located within ADAM10 gene, pertaining to RAGE shedding, was associated with colorectal cancer risk.IMPACT: Further studies are needed to confirm our observed sex difference in the association and better explore the potential involvement of genetic variants of sRAGE in colorectal cancer development.
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| 6. |
- Butt, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Pre-diagnostic Antibody Responses to Escherichia coli and Bacteroides fragilis Toxin Proteins with Colorectal Cancer in a European Cohort
- 2021
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Ingår i: Gut microbes. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1949-0976 .- 1949-0984. ; 13:1, s. e1903825-1-e1903825-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Experimental evidence has implicated genotoxic Escherichia coli (E. coli) and enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence from epidemiological studies is sparse. We therefore assessed the association of serological markers of E. coli and ETBF exposure with odds of developing CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) study. Serum samples of incident CRC cases and matched controls (n = 442 pairs) were analyzed for immunoglobulin (Ig) A and G antibody responses to seven E. coli proteins and two isoforms of the ETBF toxin via multiplex serology. Multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF with CRC. The IgA-positivity of any of the tested E. coli antigens was associated with higher odds of developing CRC (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.05–1.91). Dual-positivity for both IgA and IgG to E. coli and ETBF was associated with >1.7-fold higher odds of developing CRC, with a significant association only for IgG (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.94). This association was more pronounced when restricted to the proximal colon cancers (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.09, 6.29) compared to those of the distal colon (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.51, 3.00) (pheterogeneity = 0.095). Sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF was associated with CRC development, suggesting that co-infection of these bacterial species may contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis. These findings warrant further exploration in larger prospective studies and within different population groups.
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| 7. |
- Camen, Stephan, et al.
(författare)
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Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality
- 2020
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Ingår i: Europace. - : Oxford University Press. - 1099-5129 .- 1532-2092. ; 22:4, s. 522-529
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. Methods and results Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001). Conclusion The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.
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| 8. |
- Karavasiloglou, Nena, et al.
(författare)
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Prediagnostic serum calcium concentrations and risk of colorectal cancer development in 2 large European prospective cohorts
- 2023
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 117:1, s. 33-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Higher dietary calcium consumption is associated with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, little data are available on the association between circulating calcium concentrations and CRC risk.OBJECTIVES: To explore the association between circulating calcium concentrations and CRC risk using data from 2 large European prospective cohort studies.METHODS: Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate multivariable-adjusted ORs and 95% CIs in case-control studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; n-cases = 947, n-controls = 947) and the UK Biobank (UK-BB; n-cases = 2759, n-controls = 12,021) cohorts.RESULTS: In EPIC, nonalbumin-adjusted total serum calcium (a proxy of free calcium) was not associated with CRC (OR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.03; modeled as continuous variable, per 1 mg/dL increase), colon cancer (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.82, 1.05) or rectal cancer (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.20) risk in the multivariable adjusted model. In the UK-BB, serum ionized calcium (free calcium, most active form) was inversely associated with the risk of CRC (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.95; per 1 mg/dL) and colon cancer (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.90), but not rectal cancer (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.24) in multivariable adjusted models. Meta-analysis of EPIC and UK-BB CRC risk estimates showed an inverse risk association for CRC in the multivariable adjusted model (OR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.84, 0.97). In analyses by quintiles, in both cohorts, higher levels of serum calcium were associated with reduced CRC risk (EPIC: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.47, 1.00; P-trend = 0.03; UK-BB: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.94; P-trend < 0.01). Analyses by anatomical subsite showed an inverse cancer risk association in the colon (EPIC: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.39, 1.02; P-trend = 0.05; UK-BB: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.88; P-trend < 0.01) but not the rectum.CONCLUSIONS: In UK-BB, higher serum ionized calcium levels were inversely associated with CRC, but the risk was restricted to the colon. Total serum calcium showed a null association in EPIC. Additional prospective studies in other populations are needed to better investigate these associations.
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| 9. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Sex Differences and Similarities in Atrial Fibrillation Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Mortality in Community Cohorts Results From the BiomarCaRE Consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Circulation. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 136:17, s. 1588-1597
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood.Methods: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1–97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years.Results: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25–1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81–0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88–0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index.Conclusions: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies.
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| 10. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Sex-Specific Epidemiology of Heart Failure Risk and Mortality in Europe Results From the BiomarCaRE Consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: JACC. Heart failure. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2213-1779 .- 2213-1787. ; 7:3, s. 204-213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES This study investigates differences between women and men in heart failure (HF) risk and mortality. BACKGROUND Sex differences in HF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. METHODS In 78,657 individuals (median 49.5 years of age; age range 24.1 to 98.7 years; 51.7% women) from community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani, Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe) consortium, the association between incident HF and mortality, the relationship of cardiovascular risk factors, prevalent cardiovascular diseases, biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP]; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) with incident HF, and their attributable risks were tested in women vs. men. RESULTS Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, fewer HF cases were observed in women (n = 2,399 [5.9%]) than in men (n = 2,771 [7.3%]). HF incidence increased markedly after 60 years of age, initially with a more rapid increase in men, whereas incidence in women exceeded that of men after 85 years of age. HF onset substantially increased mortality risk in both sexes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed the following sex differences for the association with incident HF: systolic blood pressure hazard ratio (HR) according to SD in women of 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 1.14) versus HR of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.24) in men; heart rate HR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93 to 1.03) in women versus HR of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.13) in men; CRP HR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.20) in women versus HR of 1.32 (95% CI: 1.24 to 1.41) in men; and NT-proBNP HR of 1.54 (95% CI: 1.37 to 1.74) in women versus HR of 1.89 (95% CI: 1.75 to 2.05) in men. Population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 59.0% in women and 62.9% in men. CONCLUSIONS Women had a lower risk for HF than men. Sex differences were seen for systolic blood pressure, heart rate, CRP, and NT-proBNP, with a lower HF risk in women.
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