| 1. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 2. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 3. |
- Brunner, Fabian J., et al.
(författare)
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Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification : results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 394:10215, s. 2173-2183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.Methods: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.Findings: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7–59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.Interpretation: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies.
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| 4. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Ferrario, Marco M., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of social inequalities in stroke incidence across Europe : a collaborative analysis of 126 635 individuals from 48 cohort studies
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 71:12, s. 1210-1216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Knowledge on the origins of the social gradient in stroke incidence in different populations is limited. This study aims to estimate the burden of educational class inequalities in stroke incidence and to assess the contribution of risk factors in determining these inequalities across Europe.Materials and methods: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) Study comprises 48 cohorts recruited mostly in the 1980s and 1990s in four European regions using standardised procedures for baseline risk factor assessment and fatal and non-fatal stroke ascertainment and adjudication during follow-up. Among the 126 635 middle-aged participants, initially free of cardiovascular diseases, generating 3788 first stroke events during a median follow-up of 10 years, we estimated differences in stroke rates and HRs for the least versus the most educated individuals.Results: Compared with their most educated counterparts, the overall age-adjusted excess hazard for stroke was 1.54 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.91) and 1.41 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.71) in least educated men and women, respectively, with little heterogeneity across populations. Educational class inequalities accounted for 86–413 and 78–156 additional stroke events per 100 000 person-years in the least compared with most educated men and women, respectively. The additional events were equivalent to 47%–130% and 40%–89% of the average incidence rates. Inequalities in risk factors accounted for 45%–70% of the social gap in incidence in the Nordic countries, the UK and Lithuania-Kaunas (men), but for no more than 17% in Central and South Europe. The major contributors were cigarette smoking, alcohol intake and body mass index.Conclusions: Social inequalities in stroke incidence contribute substantially to the disease rates in Europe. Healthier lifestyles in the most disadvantaged individuals should have a prominent impact in reducing both inequalities and the stroke burden.
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| 7. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Global effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality
- 2023
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 389:14, s. 1273-1285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.Methods: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.Results: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).Conclusions: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)
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| 8. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality
- 2023
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 389:14, s. 1273-1285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.Methods We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.Results Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).Conclusions Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that more than half the cases of incident cardiovascular disease and one fifth of deaths may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors.
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| 9. |
- Reinikainen, Jaakko, et al.
(författare)
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Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors : an analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 31:5, s. 569-577
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period.Methods and results: The study sample comprised 553 818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors [sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (BP), and body mass index (BMI)] and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the UK were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (P = 0.043 for overall difference), and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (P = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol [7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3-10%] and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%).Conclusion: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.
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| 10. |
- Veronesi, Giovanni, et al.
(författare)
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Educational class inequalities in the incidence of coronary heart disease in Europe
- 2016
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Ingår i: Heart. - : BMJ. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 102:12, s. 958-965
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To estimate the burden of social inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and to identify their major determinants in 15 European populations.Methods: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) study comprised 49 cohorts of middle-aged European adults free of CHD (110 928 individuals) recruited mostly in the mid-1980s and 1990s, with comparable assessment of baseline risk and follow-up procedures. We derived three educational classes accounting for birth cohorts and used regression-based inequality measures of absolute differences in CHD rates and HRs (ie, Relative Index of Inequality, RII) for the least versus the most educated individuals.Results: N=6522 first CHD events occurred during a median follow-up of 12 years. Educational class inequalities accounted for 343 and 170 additional CHD events per 100 000 person-years in the least educated men and women compared with the most educated, respectively. These figures corresponded to 48% and 71% of the average event rates in each gender group. Inequalities in CHD mortality were mainly driven by incidence in the Nordic countries, Scotland and Lithuania, and by 28-day case-fatality in the remaining central/South European populations. The pooled RIIs were 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) in men and 2.0 (1.7 to 2.4) in women, consistently across population. Risk factors accounted for a third of inequalities in CHD incidence; smoking was the major mediator in men, and High-Density-Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in women.Conclusions: Social inequalities in CHD are still widespread in Europe. Since the major determinants of inequalities followed geographical and gender-specific patterns, European-level interventions should be tailored across different European regions.
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