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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Yang, Wen-Yi, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Office and Ambulatory Blood Pressure With Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 322:5, s. 409-420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ImportanceBlood pressure (BP) is a known risk factor for overall mortality and cardiovascular (CV)-specific fatal and nonfatal outcomes. It is uncertain which BP index is most strongly associated with these outcomes. ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of BP indexes with death and a composite CV event. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsLongitudinal population-based cohort study of 11135 adults from Europe, Asia, and South America with baseline observations collected from May 1988 to May 2010 (last follow-ups, August 2006-October 2016). ExposuresBlood pressure measured by an observer or an automated office machine; measured for 24 hours, during the day or the night; and the dipping ratio (nighttime divided by daytime readings). Main Outcomes and MeasuresMultivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) expressed the risk of death or a CV event associated with BP increments of 20/10 mm Hg. Cardiovascular events included CV mortality combined with nonfatal coronary events, heart failure, and stroke. Improvement in model performance was assessed by the change in the area under the curve (AUC). ResultsAmong 11135 participants (median age, 54.7 years, 49.3% women), 2836 participants died (18.5 per 1000 person-years) and 2049 (13.4 per 1000 person-years) experienced a CV event over a median of 13.8 years of follow-up. Both end points were significantly associated with all single systolic BP indexes (P<.001). For nighttime systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.17-1.28) and for CV events, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.43). For the 24-hour systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.16-1.28) and for CV events, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.37-1.54). With adjustment for any of the other systolic BP indexes, the associations of nighttime and 24-hour systolic BP with the primary outcomes remained statistically significant (HRs ranging from 1.17 [95% CI, 1.10-1.25] to 1.87 [95% CI, 1.62-2.16]). Base models that included single systolic BP indexes yielded an AUC of 0.83 for mortality and 0.84 for the CV outcomes. Adding 24-hour or nighttime systolic BP to base models that included other BP indexes resulted in incremental improvements in the AUC of 0.0013 to 0.0027 for mortality and 0.0031 to 0.0075 for the composite CV outcome. Adding any systolic BP index to models already including nighttime or 24-hour systolic BP did not significantly improve model performance. These findings were consistent for diastolic BP. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this population-based cohort study, higher 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure measurements were significantly associated with greater risks of death and a composite CV outcome, even after adjusting for other office-based or ambulatory blood pressure measurements. Thus, 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure may be considered optimal measurements for estimating CV risk, although statistically, model improvement compared with other blood pressure indexes was small.
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- Hansen, T. W., et al.
(författare)
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Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for risk stratification in obese and non-obese subjects from 10 populations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Human Hypertension. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0950-9240 .- 1476-5527. ; 28:9, s. 535-542
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Overweight clusters with high blood pressure (BP), but the independent contribution of both risk factors remains insufficiently documented. In a prospective population study involving 8467 participants (mean age 54.6 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations, we studied the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to risk over and beyond BP, taking advantage of the superiority of ambulatory over conventional BP. Over 10.6 years (median), 1271 participants (15.0%) died and 1092 (12.9%), 637 (7.5%) and 443 (5.2%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac or cerebrovascular event. Adjusted for sex and age, low BMI (<20.7 kg m(-2)) predicted death (hazard ratio (HR) vs average risk, 1.52; P<0.0001) and high BMI (>= 30.9 kg m(-2)) predicted the cardiovascular end point (HR, 1.27; P = 0.006). With adjustments including 24-h systolic BP, these HRs were 1.50 (P <0.001) and 0.98 (P = 0.91), respectively. Across quartiles of the BMI distribution, 24-h and nighttime systolic BP predicted every end point (1.13 <= standardized HR <= 1.67; 0.046 <= P<0.0001). The interaction between systolic BP and BMI was nonsignificant (P >= 0.22). Excluding smokers removed the contribution of BMI categories to the prediction of mortality. In conclusion, BMI only adds to BP in risk stratification for mortality but not for cardiovascular outcomes. Smoking probably explains the association between increased mortality and low BMI.
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- Imai, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of oxidative stress and toll-like receptor 4 signaling as a key pathway of acute lung injury
- 2008
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Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 1097-4172 .- 0092-8674. ; 133:2, s. 235-249
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple lung pathogens such as chemical agents, H5N1 avian flu, or SARS cause high lethality due to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here we report that Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) mutant mice display natural resistance to acid-induced acute lung injury (ALI). We show that TLR4-TRIF-TRAF6 signaling is a key disease pathway that controls the severity of ALI. The oxidized phospholipid (OxPL) OxPAPC was identified to induce lung injury and cytokine production by lung macrophages via TLR4-TRIF. We observed OxPL production in the lungs of humans and animals infected with SARS, Anthrax, or H5N1. Pulmonary challenge with an inactivated H5N1 avian influenza virus rapidly induces ALI and OxPL formation in mice. Loss of TLR4 or TRIF expression protects mice from H5N1-induced ALI. Moreover, deletion of ncf1, which controls ROS production, improves the severity of H5N1-mediated ALI. Our data identify oxidative stress and innate immunity as key lung injury pathways that control the severity of ALI.
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- Tamagawa, T., et al.
(författare)
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Correlation between musculoskeletal structure of the hand and primate locomotion: Morphometric and mechanical analysis in prehension using the cross- and triple-ratios
- 2020
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 15:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biometric ratios of the relative length of the rays in the hand have been analyzed between primate species in the light of their hand function or phylogeny. However, how relative lengths among phalanges are mechanically linked to the grasping function of primates with different locomotor behaviors remains unclear. To clarify this, we calculated cross and triple-ratios, which are related to the torque distribution, and the torque generation mode at different joint angles using the lengths of the phalanges and metacarpal bones in 52 primates belonging to 25 species. The torque exerted on the finger joint and traction force of the flexor tendons necessary for a cylindrical grip and a suspensory hand posture were calculated using the moment arm of flexor tendons measured on magnetic resonance images, and were compared among Hylobates spp., Ateles sp., and Papio hamadryas. Finally, the torques calculated from the model were validated by a mechanical study detecting the force exerted on the phalanx by pulling the digital flexor muscles during suspension in these three species. Canonical discriminant analysis of cross and triple-ratios classified primates almost in accordance with their current classification based on locomotor behavior. The traction force was markedly reduced with flexion of the MCP joint parallel to the torque in brachiating primates; this was notably lower in the terrestrial quadrupedal primates than in the arboreal primates at mild flexion. Our mechanical study supported these features in the torque and traction force generation efficiencies. Our results suggest that suspensory or terrestrial quadrupedal primates have hand structures that can exert more torque at a suspensory posture, or palmigrade and digitigrade locomotion, respectively. Furthermore, our study suggests availability of the cross and triple-ratios as one of the indicators to estimate the hand function from the skeletal structure.
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