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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Tamagawa, T., et al.
(författare)
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Correlation between musculoskeletal structure of the hand and primate locomotion: Morphometric and mechanical analysis in prehension using the cross- and triple-ratios
- 2020
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 15:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biometric ratios of the relative length of the rays in the hand have been analyzed between primate species in the light of their hand function or phylogeny. However, how relative lengths among phalanges are mechanically linked to the grasping function of primates with different locomotor behaviors remains unclear. To clarify this, we calculated cross and triple-ratios, which are related to the torque distribution, and the torque generation mode at different joint angles using the lengths of the phalanges and metacarpal bones in 52 primates belonging to 25 species. The torque exerted on the finger joint and traction force of the flexor tendons necessary for a cylindrical grip and a suspensory hand posture were calculated using the moment arm of flexor tendons measured on magnetic resonance images, and were compared among Hylobates spp., Ateles sp., and Papio hamadryas. Finally, the torques calculated from the model were validated by a mechanical study detecting the force exerted on the phalanx by pulling the digital flexor muscles during suspension in these three species. Canonical discriminant analysis of cross and triple-ratios classified primates almost in accordance with their current classification based on locomotor behavior. The traction force was markedly reduced with flexion of the MCP joint parallel to the torque in brachiating primates; this was notably lower in the terrestrial quadrupedal primates than in the arboreal primates at mild flexion. Our mechanical study supported these features in the torque and traction force generation efficiencies. Our results suggest that suspensory or terrestrial quadrupedal primates have hand structures that can exert more torque at a suspensory posture, or palmigrade and digitigrade locomotion, respectively. Furthermore, our study suggests availability of the cross and triple-ratios as one of the indicators to estimate the hand function from the skeletal structure.
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| 4. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:9, s. 637-644
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated truepositive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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