| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- ODonnell, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Registered Replication Report: Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Perspectives on Psychological Science. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD. - 1745-6916 .- 1745-6924. ; 13:2, s. 268-294
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998) reported that participants primed with a category associated with intelligence (professor) subsequently performed 13% better on a trivia test than participants primed with a category associated with a lack of intelligence (soccer hooligans). In two unpublished replications of this study designed to verify the appropriate testing procedures, Dijksterhuis, van Knippenberg, and Holland observed a smaller difference between conditions (2%-3%) as well as a gender difference: Men showed the effect (9.3% and 7.6%), but women did not (0.3% and -0.3%). The procedure used in those replications served as the basis for this multilab Registered Replication Report. A total of 40 laboratories collected data for this project, and 23 of these laboratories met all inclusion criteria. Here we report the meta-analytic results for those 23 direct replications (total N = 4,493), which tested whether performance on a 30-item general-knowledge trivia task differed between these two priming conditions (results of supplementary analyses of the data from all 40 labs, N = 6,454, are also reported). We observed no overall difference in trivia performance between participants primed with the professor category and those primed with the hooligan category (0.14%) and no moderation by gender.
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| 3. |
- Keogan, Katharine, et al.
(författare)
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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:4, s. 313-318
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity(1), and is often sensitive to climatic conditions(2). Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey(3). This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers(4). However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction(5). Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr(-1)) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days degrees C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources(2).
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| 4. |
- Bodin, Örjan, et al.
(författare)
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Improving network approaches to the study of complex social–ecological interdependencies
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 2:7, s. 551-559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Achieving effective, sustainable environmental governance requires a better understanding of the causes and consequences of the complex patterns of interdependencies connecting people and ecosystems within and across scales. Network approaches for conceptualizing and analysing these interdependencies offer one promising solution. Here, we present two advances we argue are needed to further this area of research: (i) a typology of causal assumptions explicating the causal aims of any given network-centric study of social–ecological interdependencies; (ii) unifying research design considerations that facilitate conceptualizing exactly what is interdependent, through what types of relationships and in relation to what kinds of environmental problems. The latter builds on the appreciation that many environmental problems draw from a set of core challenges that re-occur across contexts. We demonstrate how these advances combine into a comparative heuristic that facilitates leveraging case-specific findings of social–ecological interdependencies to generalizable, yet context-sensitive, theories based on explicit assumptions of causal relationships.
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| 5. |
- Piper, Brian J., et al.
(författare)
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Non-replication of an association of Apolipoprotein E2 with sinistrality
- 2013
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Ingår i: Laterality. - 1357-650X .- 1464-0678. ; 18:2, s. 251-261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A recent report found that left-handed adolescents were more than three times more likely to have an Apolipoprotein (APOE) E2 allele. This study was unable to replicate this association in young adults (N=166). A meta-analysis of nine other datasets (N=360 to 7559, Power > 0.999) including that of National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center also failed to find an over-representation of E2 among left-handers indicating that this earlier outcome was most likely a statistical artefact.
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| 6. |
- Desmond, Deirdre, et al.
(författare)
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Assistive technology and people: a position paper from the first global research, innovation and education on assistive technology (GREAT) summit
- 2018
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Ingår i: Disability and rehabilitation. Assistive technology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1748-3115 .- 1748-3107. ; 13:5, s. 437-444
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Assistive technology (AT) is a powerful enabler of participation. The World Health Organization’s Global Collaboration on Assistive Technology (GATE) programme is actively working towards access to assistive technology for all. Developed through collaborative work as a part of the Global Research, Innovation and Education on Assistive Technology (GREAT) Summit, this position paper provides a “state of the science” view of AT users, conceptualized as “People” within the set of GATE strategic “P”s. People are at the core of policy, products, personnel and provision. AT is an interface between the person and the life they would like to lead. People’s preferences, perspectives and goals are fundamental to defining and determining the success of AT. Maximizing the impact of AT in enabling participation requires an individualized and holistic understanding of the value and meaning of AT for the individual, taking a universal model perspective, focusing on the person, in context, and then considering the condition and/or the technology. This paper aims to situate and emphasize people at the centre of AT systems: we highlight personal meanings and perspectives on AT use and consider the role of advocacy, empowerment and co-design in developing and driving AT processes.
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| 9. |
- Bauer, Fredric, et al.
(författare)
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Climate innovations in the plastic industry: Prospects for decarbonisation
- 2018
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Plastics are efficient materials for many purposes, e.g. packaging and construction, but are also associated with significant problems. These span from littering in forests and oceans, toxicity of additives, to the fundamental dependence on fossil resource for the production of the plastic material. This report aims to give an overview of the challenges for decarbonisation of plastics, i.e. moving away from a dependency on fossil resources for the production. Firstly, it identifies different possible development pathways for the industry towards decarbonisation and the key arguments for and against these pathways – reduced use of plastics, recycled plastics, and bio-based plastics. Secondly, it presents an analysis of structural characteristics of the industry that affect the potential for low-carbon innovation. This includes identifying and understanding the potential that traditional as well as new types of agents have to affect the direction of development. The report presents decarbonisation initiatives and engagement throughout the system of plastics, i.e. not only by primary production firms but also by knowledge organisations, intermediary firms, consumer groups etc. As the development pathways are contested and challenged both on technological and other grounds, the issue of power becomes pressing. The formation and use of coalitions to support and/or counteract certain developments is important, as political regulation of this highly globalised and diffuse sector has previously been difficult. The interaction between geographical particularities and scales must be given due consideration. Finally, the aspect of materiality is a key concern for the development of a system of specific materials. This relates of course to the limits of different types of feedstocks and material properties, but also to other resources and their exploitation within a system that is deeply entrenched in a system with capital invested in technologies and facilities adapted for processing fossil resources into fuels, plastics, and other products. Despite the strong carbon lock-in that the plastics industry is in, the identified pathways show that there are possibilities for decarbonisation. New types of actors are creating pressure for the sector to move towards a future plastic sector that is both circular and independent of fossil resources.
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| 10. |
- Bulling, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Gaze Interaction in the Post-WIMP World
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- With continuous progression away from desktop to post-WIMP applications, including multi-touch, gestural, or tangible interaction, there is high potential for eye gaze as a more natural human-computer interface in numerous contexts. Examples include attention-aware adaptations or the combination of gaze and hand gestures for interaction with distant displays. This SIG meeting provides a discussion venue for researchers and practitioners interested in gaze interaction in the post-WIMP era. We wish to draw attention to this emerging field and eventually formulate fundamental research questions. We will discuss the potential of gaze interaction for diverse application areas, interaction tasks, and multimodal user interface combinations. Our aims are to promote this research field, foster a larger research community, and establish the basis for a workshop at CHI 2013.
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