| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 3. |
- Reed, Mark S., et al.
(författare)
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The future of the uplands
- 2009
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Ingår i: Land use policy. - : Elsevier Limited. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 26:Supplement 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable uplandcommunities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.
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| 4. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 5. |
- Pienkowski, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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A review of hyperacusis and future directions : part II. Measurement, mechanisms, and treatment.
- 2014
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Ingår i: American Journal of Audiology. - : American Speech-Language-Hearing Association. - 1059-0889 .- 1558-9137. ; 23:4, s. 420-436
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Hyperacusis can be extremely debilitating, and at present, there is no cure. In this detailed review of the field, we consolidate present knowledge in the hope of facilitating future research.METHOD: We review and reference the literature on hyperacusis and related areas. This is the 2nd of a 2-part review.RESULTS: Hyperacusis encompasses a wide range of reactions to sounds, which can be grouped into the categories of excessive loudness, annoyance, fear, and pain. Reasonable approaches to assessing the different forms of hyperacusis are emerging, including brain-imaging studies. Researchers are only beginning to understand the many mechanisms at play, and valid animal models are still evolving. There are many counseling and sound-therapy approaches that some patients find helpful, but well-controlled studies are needed to measure their long-term efficacy and to test new approaches.CONCLUSIONS: Hyperacusis can make life difficult in this increasingly noisy world, forcing sufferers to dramatically alter their work and social habits. We believe this is an opportune time to explore approaches to better understand and treat hyperacusis.
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| 6. |
- Tyler, Richard S, et al.
(författare)
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A review of hyperacusis and future directions : part I. Definitions and manifestations.
- 2014
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Ingår i: American Journal of Audiology. - : American Speech-Language-Hearing Association. - 1059-0889 .- 1558-9137. ; 23:4, s. 402-19
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Hyperacusis can be extremely debilitating, and at present, there is no cure. We provide an overview of the field, and possible related areas, in the hope of facilitating future research.METHOD: We review and reference literature on hyperacusis and related areas. We have divided the review into 2 articles. In Part I, we discuss definitions, epidemiology, different etiologies and subgroups, and how hyperacusis affects people. In Part II, we review measurements, models, mechanisms, and treatments, and we finish with some suggestions for further research.RESULTS: Hyperacusis encompasses a wide range of reactions to sound, which can be grouped into the categories of excessive loudness, annoyance, fear, and pain. Many different causes have been proposed, and it will be important to appreciate and quantify different subgroups. Reasonable approaches to assessing the different forms of hyperacusis are emerging, including psychoacoustical measures, questionnaires, and brain imaging.CONCLUSIONS: Hyperacusis can make life difficult for many, forcing sufferers to dramatically alter their work and social habits. We believe this is an opportune time to explore approaches to better understand and treat hyperacusis.
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| 7. |
- Brocki, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the molecular genetics of the development of executive attention in children : focus on genetic pathways related to the anterior cingulate cortex and dopamine
- 2009
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Ingår i: Neuroscience. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-4522 .- 1873-7544. ; 164:1, s. 241-246
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is well known that children show gradual and protracted improvement in an array of behaviors involved in the conscious control of thought and emotion. Non-invasive neuroimaging in developing populations has revealed many neural correlates of behavior, particularly in the developing cingulate cortex and frontostriatal circuits. These brain regions, themselves, undergo protracted molecular and cellular change in the first two decades of human development and, as such, are ideal regions of interest for cognitive- and imaging-genetic studies that seek to link processes at the biochemical and synaptic levels to brain activity and behavior. We review our research to date that employs both adult and child-friendly versions of the attention network task (ANT) in an effort to begin to describe the role of specific genes in the assembly of a functional attention system. Presently, we constrain our predictions for genetic association studies by focusing on the role of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and of dopamine in the development of executive attention.
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| 8. |
- F, J-, et al.
(författare)
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First Delinquent Behavior Among Pre-Pubescent Children : A Development Paradigm Alongside Family SES
- 2016
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Ingår i: International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology. - : Sage Publications. - 0306-624X .- 1552-6933. ; 60:14, s. 1609-1622
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present study investigated what explains and accounts for first pre-pubescent delinquent behaviors among children. This was based on the notion that a developmental paradigm (e.g., self-control) alongside family socio-economic status (SES) can provide a passable explanation for the first and early delinquent behavior. A nationally representative sample of eighth graders (N = 3,449, 50% boys) from the Korea Youth Panel Survey (KYPS) was reviewed in terms of first delinquent behaviors. Results revealed that pre-pubescent boys started to drink at an earlier age than girls, whereas pre-pubescent girls engaged in relational bullying earlier than their male counterparts. Children’s onset of delinquency age was inversely associated with family SES, but was positively associated with their degree of self-control. Different types of first delinquency were distinguished by levels of parental education as well as child’s self-control. Implications of the findings are discussed.
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| 9. |
- Inoue, Y., et al.
(författare)
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The association between economic development, lifestyle differentiation, and C-reactive protein concentration within rural communities in Hainan Island, China
- 2016
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Ingår i: American Journal of Human Biology. - : Wiley. - 1042-0533 .- 1520-6300. ; 28:2, s. 186-196
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Earlier fieldwork in rural areas of Hainan Island, China, demonstrated that during the course of economic development increasing differences had emerged in lifestyles within communities. It is possible that these variations might have stratified residents into subpopulations with different health attributes. This study examined the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, a biomarker of future cardiovascular events, and personal lifestyle parameters and the degree of community-level economic development among rural communities. Methods: A cross-sectional field survey was undertaken in 19 rural communities in Hainan. Convenience sampling was used to recruit 1,744 participants. Dried blood spot samples were collected to measure high-sensitivity CRP concentration. Sex-stratified multilevel regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with CRP concentration among the participants. Results: While CRP concentration was negatively associated with being married and (more) education among men, for women CRP concentration was associated with the frequency of poultry consumption (P = 0.014) and the experience of migratory work in the previous year (P = 0.009). In addition, for females, living in communities with a greater degree of inequality, as indexed by the Gini coefficient, was also associated with increased CRP concentration (P = 0.003). Conclusion: Given that CRP concentration is a marker of future CVD risk, this study suggests that within these previously homogenous rural communities, economic development might have stratified people into population subgroups with a different CVD risk. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2015.
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| 10. |
- Jin, J., et al.
(författare)
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Role of local governments in fostering the development of an emerging industry: A market-oriented policy perspective
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers of Engineering Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2095-7513 .- 2096-0255. ; 7:3, s. 447-458
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This research investigates the role of local governments in stimulating an emerging industry and focuses on the specific growth of the new energy vehicle industry in Hangzhou, China. This research confirms that enabling firms to access emerging technology, acquire financial support, and touch customers and/or suppliers are critical to foster the emergence and development of industries. Moreover, the primary contribution of this study is to emphasize the support of the local government in the development of emerging industries on the perspective of the creation of a large-scale market demand. The creation of large-scale market demand may inspire actors to be proactive in responding to these incentives; thus, public and private actions may help increase the accessibility to technology, infrastructure, and finances. Hence, a market-oriented policy that incentivizes the creation and expansion of market demand among diverse public and private actors should be seen as the key issue for the emergence and growth of emerging industries. Policies should also be adopted promptly with the development of the market.
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