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- Reusch, T. B. H., et al.
(author)
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The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean
- 2018
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In: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 4:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.
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- Smith, Jennifer A, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study identifies 74 loci associated with educational attainment
- 2016
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In: Nature (London). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 533:7604, s. 539-542
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Educational attainment is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for educational attainment that extends our earlier discovery sample of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication study in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with the number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioural phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because educational attainment is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric diseases.
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| 5. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(author)
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Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
- 2016
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 351:6280, s. 1433-1436
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that weremade publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
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| 6. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(author)
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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015
- 2018
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:9, s. 637-644
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated truepositive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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- Leder, Erica H, 1967, et al.
(author)
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Post-glacial establishment of locally adapted fish populations over a steep salinity gradient
- 2021
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In: Journal of Evolutionary Biology. - : Wiley. - 1010-061X .- 1420-9101. ; 34:1, s. 138-56
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Studies of colonization of new habitats that appear from rapidly changing environments are interesting and highly relevant to our understanding of divergence and speciation. Here, we analyse phenotypic and genetic variation involved in the successful establishment of a marine fish (sand goby,Pomatoschistus minutus) over a steep salinity drop from 35 PSU in the North Sea (NE Atlantic) to two PSU in the inner parts of the post-glacial Baltic Sea. We first show that populations are adapted to local salinity in a key reproductive trait, the proportion of motile sperm. Thereafter, we show that genome variation at 22,190 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) shows strong differentiation among populations along the gradient. Sequences containing outlier SNPs and transcriptome sequences, mapped to a draft genome, reveal associations with genes with relevant functions for adaptation in this environment but without overall evidence of functional enrichment. The many contigs involved suggest polygenic differentiation. We trace the origin of this differentiation using demographic modelling and find the most likely scenario is that at least part of the genetic differentiation is older than the Baltic Sea and is a result of isolation of two lineages prior to the current contact over the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone.
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| 8. |
- Lee, James J, et al.
(author)
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Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals.
- 2018
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In: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 50:8, s. 1112-1121
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Here we conducted a large-scale genetic association analysis of educational attainment in a sample of approximately 1.1million individuals and identify 1,271independent genome-wide-significant SNPs. For the SNPs taken together, we found evidence of heterogeneous effects across environments. The SNPs implicate genes involved in brain-development processes and neuron-to-neuron communication. In a separate analysis of the X chromosome, we identify 10independent genome-wide-significant SNPs and estimate a SNP heritability of around 0.3% in both men and women, consistent with partial dosage compensation. A joint (multi-phenotype) analysis of educational attainment and three related cognitive phenotypes generates polygenic scores that explain 11-13% of the variance in educational attainment and 7-10% of the variance in cognitive performance. This prediction accuracy substantially increases the utility of polygenic scores as tools in research.
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| 9. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 10. |
- Andersen, M. H. G., et al.
(author)
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Exposure to Air Pollution inside Electric and Diesel-Powered Passenger Trains
- 2019
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In: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 53:8, s. 4579-4587
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Diesel-powered trains are used worldwide for passenger transport. The present study aimed to assess air pollution concentrations in passenger cars from diesel and electric trains. Personal exposure monitoring (6-7 h per day) was carried out for 49 days on diesel and 22 days on electric trains. Diesel trains had higher concentrations of all the assessed air pollution components. Average increases (and fold differences) in passenger cars of diesel trains compared with electric trains were for ultrafine particles 212 000 particles/cm(3) (35-fold), black carbon 8.3 mu g/m(3) (6-fold), NOx 316 mu g/m(3) (8-fold), NO2 38 mu g/m(3) (3-fold), PM2.5 34 mu g/m(3) (2-fold), and benzo(a)pyrene 0.14 mu g/m(3) (6-fold). From time-series data, the pull and push movement modes, the engine in use, and the distance to the locomotive influenced the concentrations inside the diesel trains. In conclusion, concentrations of all air pollutants were significantly elevated in passenger cars in diesel trains compared to electric trains.
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