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1.
  • Rydberg Sterner, Therese, et al. (författare)
  • The Gothenburg H70 Birth cohort study 2014-16: design, methods and study population.
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: European journal of epidemiology. - 1573-7284 .- 0393-2990. ; 34:2, s. 191-209
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To improve health care for older persons, we need to learn more about ageing, e.g. identify protective factors and early markers for diseases. The Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort Studies (the H70 studies) are multidisciplinary epidemiological studies examining representative birth cohorts of older populations in Gothenburg, Sweden. So far, six birth cohorts of 70-year-olds have been examined over time, and examinations have been virtually identical between studies. This paper describes the study procedures for the baseline examination of the Birth cohort 1944, conducted in 2014-16. In this study, all men and women born 1944 on specific dates, and registered as residents in Gothenburg, were eligible for participation (n = 1839). A total of 1203 (response rate 72.2%; 559 men and 644 women; mean age 70.5 years) agreed to participate in the study. The study comprised sampling of blood and cerebrospinal fluid, psychiatric, cognitive, and physical health examinations, examinations of genetics and family history, use of medications, social factors, functional ability and disability, physical fitness and activity, body composition, lung function, audiological and ophthalmological examinations, diet, brain imaging, as well as a close informant interview, and qualitative studies. As in previous examinations, data collection serves as a basis for future longitudinal follow-up examinations. The research gained from the H70 studies has clinical relevance in relation to prevention, early diagnosis, clinical course, experience of illness, understanding pathogenesis and prognosis. Results will increase our understanding of ageing and inform service development, which may lead to enhanced quality of care for older persons.
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2.
  • Harvey, N. C., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX predicts incident falls in elderly men : findings from MrOs Sweden
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: ; 27:1, s. 267-274
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Summary Falls and fractures share several common risk factors. Although past falls is not included as an input variable in the FRAX calculator, we demonstrate that FRAX probability predicts risk of incident falls in the MrOs Sweden cohort. Introduction Although not included in the FRAXA (R) algorithm, it is possible that increased falls risk is partly dependent on other risk factors that are incorporated into FRAX. The aim of the present study was to determine whether fracture probability generated by FRAX might also predict risk of incident falls and the extent that a falls history would add value to FRAX. Methods We studied the relationship between FRAX probabilities and risk of falls in 1836 elderly men recruited to the MrOS study, a population-based prospective cohort of men from Sweden. Baseline data included falls history, clinical risk factors, bone mineral density (BMD) at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. Incident falls were captured during an average of 1.8 years of follow-up. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between FRAX, other risk variables, and the time-to-event hazard function of falls. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline. Results At enrolment, 15.5 % of the men had fallen during the preceding 12 months (past falls) and 39 % experienced one or more falls during follow-up (incident falls). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX probabilities at baseline (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.16; 95 % confidence interval (95%CI), 1.06 to 1.26). The association between incident falls and FRAX probability remained after adjustment for past falls (HR per SD, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.22). High compared with low baseline FRAX score (>15 vs <15 % probability of major osteoporotic fracture) was strongly predictive of increased falls risk (HR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.36 to 1.97) and remained stable with time. Whereas past falls were a significant predictor of incident falls (HR, 2.75; 95%CI, 2.32 to 3.25), even after adjustment for FRAX, the hazard ratio decreased markedly with increasing follow-up time. Conclusions Although falls are not included as an input variable, FRAX captures a component of risk for future falls and outperforms falls history with an extended follow-up time.
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3.
  • Borgström, F, et al. (författare)
  • The cost-effectiveness of risedronate in the UK for the management of osteoporosis using the FRAX(R).
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 21:3, s. 495-505
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The study estimated the cost-effectiveness of risedronate compared to no treatment in UK women using the FRAX algorithm for fracture risk assessment. A Markov cohort model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness. Risedronate was found cost-effective from the age of 65 years, assuming a willingness to pay for a QALY of pound30,000. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of risedronate for the prevention and treatment in a UK setting using the FRAX(R) algorithm for fracture risk assessment. A further aim was to establish intervention thresholds with risedronate treatment. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of risedronate was compared to no treatment in post-menopausal women with clinical risk factors for fracture using a Markov cohort model populated with data relevant for the UK. The model incorporated the features of FRAX(R) (the WHO risk assessment tool). The analysis had a health care perspective and quality adjusted life years was used as the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Treatment was cost-effective from the age of 65 years, assuming a willingness to pay for a QALY of pound30,000. Treatment was also cost-effective at all ages in women who had previously sustained a fragility fracture or in women with a parental history of hip fracture with a bone mineral density set at the threshold of osteoporosis. At the pound30,000 threshold value for a QALY, risedronate was on average found to cost-effective below the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fractures of 13.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Risedronate is a cost-effective agent for the treatment of established osteoporosis (osteoporosis and a prior fragility fracture) in women from the age of 50 years and older and above 65 years in women with osteoporosis alone. The results support the treatment recommendations in recent UK guidelines for osteoporosis.
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4.
  • Borgström, F, et al. (författare)
  • The cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the UK for the management of osteoporosis.
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 21:2, s. 339-49
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate was compared to no treatment in UK women using the FRAX algorithm for fracture risk assessment. At a willingness-to-pay of pound 30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), strontium ranelate was generally cost-effective in women with prior fracture at the threshold of osteoporosis from an age of 65 years. INTRODUCTION: The objectives of the study were to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the UK for the treatment of osteoporosis and to establish intervention thresholds for treatment using the FRAX tool. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate was compared to no treatment in postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors for fracture using a lifetime simulation model based on Markov cohort methodology that incorporated the features of FRAX. RESULTS: At a threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY, strontium ranelate was generally cost-effective in women from an age of 65 years with prior fracture at the threshold of osteoporosis (i.e., a T-score of -2.5 SD) and in women with a prior fracture (and no information on bone mineral density) from the age of 65 years. At a threshold of pound 20,000, strontium ranelate became cost-effective at a 10-year fracture probability of 25.7% and at 16.9% with a threshold of pound 30,000 for a QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Strontium ranelate is a cost-effective agent for the treatment of established osteoporosis in women over the age of 65 years. Cost-effective scenarios were also found for the prevention and treatment of fractures associated with osteoporosis, in younger women with additional clinical risk factors.
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5.
  • De Laet, Chris, et al. (författare)
  • The impact of the use of multiple risk indicators for fracture on case-finding strategies: a mathematical approach.
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:3, s. 313-8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The value of bone mineral density (BMD) measurements to stratify fracture probability can be enhanced in a case-finding strategy that combines BMD measurement with independent clinical risk indicators. Putative risk indicators include age and gender, BMI or weight, prior fracture, the use of corticosteroids, and possibly others. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical framework to quantify the impact of using combinations of risk indicators with BMD in case finding. Fracture probability can be expressed as a risk gradient, i.e. a relative risk (RR) of fracture per standard deviation (SD) change in BMD. With the addition of other continuous or categorical risk indicators a continuous distribution of risk indicators is obtained that approaches a normal distribution. It is then possible to calculate the risk of individuals compared with the average risk in the population, stratified by age and gender. A risk indicator with a gradient of fracture risk of 2 per SD identified 36% of the population as having a higher than average fracture risk. In individuals so selected, the risk was on average 1.7 times that of the general population. Where, through the combination of several risk indicators, the gradient of risk of the test increased to 4 per SD, a smaller proportion (24%) was identified as having a higher than average risk, but the average risk in this group was 3.1 times that of the population, which is a much better performance. At higher thresholds of risk, similar phenomena were found. We conclude that, whereas the change of the proportion of the population detected to be at high risk is small, the performance of a test is improved when the RR per SD is higher, indicated by the higher average risk in those identified to be at risk. Case-finding strategies that combine clinical risk indicators with BMD have increased efficiency, while having a modest impact on the number of individuals requiring treatment. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness is enhanced.
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6.
  • Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al. (författare)
  • BMD, clinical risk factors and their combination for hip fracture prevention
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 20:10, s. 1675-82
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • SUMMARY: This study examined the effects of the use of clinical risk factors (CRFs) alone, BMD alone or the combination using the FRAX tool for the detection of women at risk of hip fracture. BMD tests alone selected women at higher risk and a greater number of hip fracture cases were identified compared to the use of CRFs alone. The combined use of CRFs and BMD identified fewer women above a threshold risk than the use of BMD alone, but with a higher hip fracture risk and thus had the more favourable positive predictive value (PPV) and number needed to treat (NNT). INTRODUCTION: Algorithms have recently become available for the calculation of hip fracture probability from CRFs with and without information on femoral neck BMD. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of the use of CRFs alone, BMD alone or their combination using the FRAX tool for the detection of women at risk of hip fracture. METHODS: Data from 10 prospective population based cohorts, in which BMD and CRFs were documented, were used to compute the 10-year probabilities of hip fracture calibrated to the fracture and death hazards of the UK. The effects of the use of BMD tests were examined in simulations where BMD tests were used alone, CRFs alone or their combined use. The base case examined the effects in women at the age of 65 years. The principal outcome measures were the number of women identified above an intervention threshold, the number of hip fracture cases that would be identified, the positive predicted value and the NNT to prevent a hip fracture during a hypothetical treatment with an effectiveness of 35% targeted to those above the threshold fracture risk. We also examined BMD values in women selected for treatment. Sensitivity analysis examined the effect of age and limited use of BMD resources. RESULTS: BMD tests alone selected women at higher risk of hip fracture than the use of CRFs alone (6.1% versus 5.3%). BMD tests alone also identified a greater number of hip fracture cases (219/1,000) compared to the use of CRFs alone (140/1,000). The combined use of CRFs and BMD identified fewer women above a threshold risk than the use of BMD alone (168/1,000 versus 219/1,000, respectively), but with a higher hip fracture risk (PPV, 8.6% versus 6.1%), and consequently a lower number needed to treat (NNT) (33 versus 47). In sensitivity analyses, the PPV and NNT were always better for the combination than either BMD or CRFs alone across all ages studied (50-70 years). CONCLUSIONS: The use of FRAX in combination with BMD increases the performance characteristics of fracture risk assessment.
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7.
  • Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al. (författare)
  • Is the Swedish FRAX model appropriate for Swedish immigrants?
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 26:11, s. 2617-2622
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The incidence of hip fracture in Sweden is substantially lower in immigrants than in the population born in Sweden. Thus, the use of a FRAXA (R) model in immigrants overestimates the risk of fracture, and the use of country of origin-specific models may be more appropriate. Introduction Age-specific fracture and mortality rates vary between countries so that FRAX tools are country-specific. In the case of immigrants, it is not known whether the model for the original or the new country is most appropriate. The aim of this study was to compare the incidence of hip fractures in foreign-born and Swedish-born individuals residing in Sweden. Methods We studied the incidence of hip fracture in all men and women aged 50 years or more in Sweden between 1987 and 2002. The population comprised 2.8 million Swedish-born and 270,000 foreign-born individuals. Results Incident hip fractures occurred in 239,842 Swedish-born and 12,563 foreign-born individuals. The hip fracture incidence rose with age for both groups and was higher for women than men amongst both Swedish-born and foreign-born individuals. The hip fracture incidence for the Swedish-born cohort was approximately twice that of immigrants. For example, at the age of 70 years, the annual hip fracture incidence (per 100,000) was 450 (95 % CI 446-454) for a Swedish-born woman and 239 (95 % CI 223-257) for a foreign-born woman at the time of immigration. The hip fracture incidence rose slowly with time from immigration (0.6 % per annum, 95 % CI 0.5-0.8 %) but remained significantly lower than for Swedish-born individuals even after 40 years of residence. Conclusions The incidence of hip fracture in Sweden is substantially lower in immigrants than in the population native to Sweden. Although there was a small rise in age- and sex-specific incidence after immigration, the incidence remained markedly lower than that observed in Swedish-born individuals. Thus, the use of a FRAX model for Sweden will overestimate the risk of fracture for foreign-born individuals living in Sweden.
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8.
  • Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al. (författare)
  • Low bone mineral density is associated with increased mortality in elderly men: MrOS Sweden.
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 22:5, s. 1411-1418
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We studied the nature of the relationship between bone mineral density (BMD) and the risk of death among elderly men. BMD was associated with mortality risk and was independent of adjustments for other co-morbidities. A piecewise linear function described the relationship more accurately than assuming the same gradient of risk over the whole range of BMD (p = 0.020). Low BMD was associated with a substantial excess risk of death, whilst a higher than average BMD had little impact on mortality. INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have demonstrated an association between low BMD and an increased risk of death among men and women. The aim of the present study was to examine the pattern of the risk in men and its relation to co-morbidities. METHODS: We studied the nature of the relationship between BMD and death among 3,014 elderly men drawn from the population and recruited to the MrOS study in Sweden. Baseline data included general health questionnaires, life style questionnaires and BMD measured using DXA. Men were followed for up to 6.5 years (average 4.5 years). Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between BMD, co-morbidities and the hazard function of death. RESULTS: During follow-up, 382 men died (all-cause mortality). Low BMD at all measured skeletal sites was associated with increased mortality. In multivariate analyses, the relationship between BMD and mortality was non-linear, and a piecewise linear function described the relationship more accurately than assuming the same gradient of risk over the whole range of BMD (p = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: Low BMD is associated with a substantial excess risk of death compared to an average BMD, whereas a higher than average BMD has a more modest effect on mortality. These findings, if confirmed elsewhere, have implications for the constructing of probability-based fracture risk assessment tools.
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9.
  • Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al. (författare)
  • Low risk for hip fracture and high risk for hip arthroplasty due to osteoarthritis among Swedish farmers
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer. - 0937-941X. ; 29:3, s. 741-749
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We aimed to study the risk of hip fracture and risk of hip arthroplasty among farmers in Sweden. Our results indicate that farming, representing an occupation with high physical activity, in men is associated with a lower risk of hip fracture but an increased risk of hip arthroplasty. Introduction The risks of hip fracture and hip arthroplasty are influenced by factors including socioeconomic status, education, urbanization, latitude of residence, and physical activity. Farming is an occupation encompassing rural living and high level of physical activity. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk of hip fracture and risk of hip arthroplasty among farmers in Sweden. Methods We studied the risk of hip fracture, and hip arthroplasty due to primary osteoarthritis, in all men and women aged 35 years or more in Sweden between 1987 and 2002. Documented occupations were available in 3.5 million individuals, of whom 97,136 were farmers. The effects of age, sex, income, education, location of residence, and occupation on risk of hip fracture or hip arthroplasty were examined using a modification of Poisson regression. Results A total of 4027 farmers and 93,109 individuals with other occupations sustained a hip fracture, while 5349 farmers and 63,473 others underwent a hip arthroplasty. Risk of hip fracture was higher with greater age, lower income, lower education, higher latitude, and urban area for all men and women. Compared to all other occupations, male farmers had a 20% lower age-adjusted risk of hip fracture (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.77-0.84), an effect that was not seen in female farmers (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.01). Both male and female farmers had a higher age-adjusted risk for hip arthroplasty. Conclusions Our results indicate that farming, representing an occupation with high physical activity, in men is associated with a lower risk of hip fracture but an increased risk of hip arthroplasty.
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10.
  • Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al. (författare)
  • Low serum vitamin D is associated with increased mortality in elderly men: MrOS Sweden.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 23:3, s. 991-999
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In elderly man, low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was associated with a substantial excess risk of death compared to 25(OH)D values greater than 50-70 nmol/l, but the association attenuated with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to determine whether poor vitamin D status was associated with an increase in the risk of death in elderly men. METHODS: We studied the relationship between serum 25(OH)D and the risk of death in 2,878 elderly men drawn from the population and recruited to the MrOS study in Sweden. Baseline data included general health and lifestyle measures and serum 25(OH)D measured by competitive RIA. Men were followed for up to 8.2 years (average 6.0 years). RESULTS: Mortality adjusted for comorbidities decreased by 5% for each SD increase in 25(OH)D overall (gradient of risk 1.05; 95% confidence interval 0.96-1.14). The predictive value of 25(OH)D for death was greatest below a threshold value of 50-70 nmol/l, was greatest at approximately 3 years after baseline and thereafter decreased with time. CONCLUSIONS: Low serum 25(OH)D is associated with a substantial excess risk of death compared to 25(OH)D values greater than 50-70 nmol/l, but the association attenuates with time. These findings, if causally related, have important implications for intervention in elderly men.
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