| 1. |
- Johansson, Helena, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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A meta-analysis of the association of fracture risk and body mass index in women.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681. ; 29:1, s. 223-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 2. |
- Johnell, Olof, et al.
(författare)
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Predictive value of BMD for hip and other fractures.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 20:7, s. 1185-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between BMD and fracture risk was estimated in a meta-analysis of data from 12 cohort studies of approximately 39,000 men and women. Low hip BMD was an important predictor of fracture risk. The prediction of hip fracture with hip BMD also depended on age and z score. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between BMD and fracture risk and examine the effect of age, sex, time since measurement, and initial BMD value. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 9891 men and 29,082 women from 12 cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, EPIDOS, OFELY, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, DOES, Hiroshima, and 2 cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for up to 16.3 years and a total of 168,366 person-years. The effect of BMD on fracture risk was examined using a Poisson model in each cohort and each sex separately. Results of the different studies were then merged using weighted coefficients. RESULTS: BMD measurement at the femoral neck with DXA was a strong predictor of hip fractures both in men and women with a similar predictive ability. At the age of 65 years, risk ratio increased by 2.94 (95% CI = 2.02-4.27) in men and by 2.88 (95% CI = 2.31-3.59) in women for each SD decrease in BMD. However, the effect was dependent on age, with a significantly higher gradient of risk at age 50 years than at age 80 years. Although the gradient of hip fracture risk decreased with age, the absolute risk still rose markedly with age. For any fracture and for any osteoporotic fracture, the gradient of risk was lower than for hip fractures. At the age of 65 years, the risk of osteoporotic fractures increased in men by 1.41 per SD decrease in BMD (95% CI = 1.33-1.51) and in women by 1.38 per SD (95% CI = 1.28-1.48). In contrast with hip fracture risk, the gradient of risk increased with age. For the prediction of any osteoporotic fracture (and any fracture), there was a higher gradient of risk the lower the BMD. At a z score of -4 SD, the risk gradient was 2.10 per SD (95% CI = 1.63-2.71) and at a z score of -1 SD, the risk was 1.73 per SD (95% CI = 1.59-1.89) in men and women combined. A similar but less pronounced and nonsignificant effect was observed for hip fractures. Data for ultrasound and peripheral measurements were available from three cohorts. The predictive ability of these devices was somewhat less than that of DXA measurements at the femoral neck by age, sex, and BMD value. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that BMD is a risk factor for fracture of substantial importance and is similar in both sexes. Its validation on an international basis permits its use in case finding strategies. Its use should, however, take account of the variations in predictive value with age and BMD.
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| 3. |
- Kanis, John A, et al.
(författare)
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A meta-analysis of milk intake and fracture risk: low utility for case finding.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:7, s. 799-804
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A low intake of calcium is widely considered to be a risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the effect of age, gender and bone mineral density (BMD) on this risk. We studied 39,563 men and women (69% female) from six prospectively studied cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, CaMos, DOES, the Rotterdam study, the Sheffield study and a cohort from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for 152,000 person-years. The effect of calcium intake as judged by the intake of milk on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted beta-coefficients. A low intake of calcium (less than 1 glass of milk daily) was not associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture, osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture. There was no difference in risk ratio between men and women. When both sexes were combined there was a small but non-significant increase in the risk of osteoporotic and of hip fracture. There was also a small increase in the risk of an osteoporotic fracture with age which was significant at the age of 80 years (RR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.02-1.30) and above. The association was no longer significant after adjustment for BMD. No significant relationship was observed by age for low milk intake and hip fracture risk. We conclude that a self-reported low intake of milk is not associated with any marked increase in fracture risk and that the use of this risk indicator is of little or no value in case-finding strategies.
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| 4. |
- Kanis, John A, et al.
(författare)
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A meta-analysis of prior corticosteroid use and fracture risk.
- 2004
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Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 19:6, s. 893-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between use of corticosteroids and fracture risk was estimated in a meta-analysis of data from seven cohort studies of approximately 42,000 men and women. Current and past use of corticosteroids was an important predictor of fracture risk that was independent of prior fracture and BMD. INTRODUCTION: The aims of this study were to validate that corticosteroid use is a significant risk factor for fracture in an international setting and to explore the effects of age and sex on this risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 42,500 men and women from seven prospectively studied cohorts followed for 176,000 patient-years. The cohorts comprised the EPOS/EVOS study, CaMos, the Rotterdam Study, Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (DOES), and prospective cohorts at Sheffield, Rochester, and Gothenburg. The effect of ever use of corticosteroids, BMD, age, and sex on all fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture risk alone was examined using Poisson regression in each cohort and for each sex. The results of the different studies were merged from the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Previous corticosteroid use was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture when adjusted for BMD. Relative risk of any fracture ranged from 1.98 at the age of 50 years to 1.66 at the age of 85 years. For osteoporotic fracture, the range of relative risk was 2.63-1.71, and for hip fracture 4.42-2.48. The estimate of relative risk was higher at younger ages, but not significantly so. No significant difference in risk was seen between men and women. The risk was marginally and not significantly upwardly adjusted when BMD was excluded from the model. The risk was independent of prior fracture. In the three cohorts that documented current corticosteroid use, BMD was significantly reduced at the femoral neck, but fracture risk was still only partly explained by BMD. CONCLUSION: We conclude that prior and current exposure to corticosteroids confers an increased risk of fracture that is of substantial importance beyond that explained by the measurement of BMD. Its identification on an international basis validates the use of this risk factor in case-finding strategies.
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| 5. |
- Kanis, John A, et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol intake as a risk factor for fracture.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:7, s. 737-42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High intakes of alcohol have adverse effects on skeletal health, but evidence for the effects of moderate consumption are less secure. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 5,939 men and 11,032 women from three prospectively studied cohorts comprising CaMos, DOES, and the Rotterdam Study. Cohorts were followed for a total of 75,433 person-years. The effect of reported alcohol intake on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined included age and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged using weighted beta-coefficients. Alcohol intake was associated with a significant increase in osteoporotic and hip fracture risk, but the effect was nonlinear. No significant increase in risk was observed at intakes of 2 units or less daily. Above this threshold, alcohol intake was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (risk ratio [RR] = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.06-1.43), any osteoporotic fracture (RR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16-1.65), or hip fracture (RR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.19-2.36). There was no significant interaction with age, BMD, or time since baseline assessment. Risk ratios were moderately but not significantly higher in men than in women, and there was no evidence for a different threshold for effect by gender. We conclude that reported intake of alcohol confers a risk of some importance beyond that explained by BMD. The validation of this risk factor on an international basis permits its use in case-finding strategies.
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| 6. |
- De Laet, Chris, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of the use of multiple risk indicators for fracture on case-finding strategies: a mathematical approach.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:3, s. 313-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The value of bone mineral density (BMD) measurements to stratify fracture probability can be enhanced in a case-finding strategy that combines BMD measurement with independent clinical risk indicators. Putative risk indicators include age and gender, BMI or weight, prior fracture, the use of corticosteroids, and possibly others. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical framework to quantify the impact of using combinations of risk indicators with BMD in case finding. Fracture probability can be expressed as a risk gradient, i.e. a relative risk (RR) of fracture per standard deviation (SD) change in BMD. With the addition of other continuous or categorical risk indicators a continuous distribution of risk indicators is obtained that approaches a normal distribution. It is then possible to calculate the risk of individuals compared with the average risk in the population, stratified by age and gender. A risk indicator with a gradient of fracture risk of 2 per SD identified 36% of the population as having a higher than average fracture risk. In individuals so selected, the risk was on average 1.7 times that of the general population. Where, through the combination of several risk indicators, the gradient of risk of the test increased to 4 per SD, a smaller proportion (24%) was identified as having a higher than average risk, but the average risk in this group was 3.1 times that of the population, which is a much better performance. At higher thresholds of risk, similar phenomena were found. We conclude that, whereas the change of the proportion of the population detected to be at high risk is small, the performance of a test is improved when the RR per SD is higher, indicated by the higher average risk in those identified to be at risk. Case-finding strategies that combine clinical risk indicators with BMD have increased efficiency, while having a modest impact on the number of individuals requiring treatment. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness is enhanced.
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| 7. |
- Giangregorio, Lora M, et al.
(författare)
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FRAX underestimates fracture risk in patients with diabetes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 27:2, s. 301-308
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The study objective was to determine whether diabetes is a risk factor for incident hip or major osteoporotic fractures independent of FRAX. Men and women with diabetes (N = 3,518) and non-diabetics (N = 36,085) age ≥50 years at the time of BMD testing (1990-2007) were identified in a large clinical database from Manitoba, Canada. FRAX probabilities were calculated and fracture outcomes to 2008 were established via linkage with a population-based data repository. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine if diabetes was associated with incident hip fractures or major osteoporotic fractures after controlling for FRAX risk factors. Mean 10-year probabilities of fracture were similar between groups for major fractures (diabetic 11.1 ± 7.2 vs. non-diabetic 10.9 ± 7.3, p-value = 0.116) and hip fractures (diabetic 2.9 ± 4.4 vs. non-diabetic 2.8 ± 4.4, p-value = 0.400). Diabetes was a significant predictor of subsequent major osteoporotic fracture (HR 1.61 [95% CI; 1.42-1.83]) after controlling for age, sex, medication use, and FRAX risk factors including BMD. Similar results were seen after adjusting for FRAX probability directly (HR 1.59 [95% CI; 1.40-1.79]). Diabetes was also associated with significantly higher risk for hip fractures (p-value < 0.001). Higher mortality from diabetes attenuated but did not eliminate the excess fracture risk. FRAX underestimated observed major osteoporotic and hip fracture risk in diabetics (adjusted for competing mortality), but demonstrated good concordance with observed fractures for non-diabetics. We conclude that diabetes confers an increased risk of fracture that is independent of FRAX derived with BMD. This suggests that diabetes might be considered for inclusion in future iterations of FRAX. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 8. |
- Hans, Didier, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 23:7, s. 1045-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.
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| 9. |
- Harvey, Nicholas C., et al.
(författare)
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Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability : A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : WILEY. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 33:3, s. 510-516
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although prior falls are a well-established predictor of future fracture, there is currently limited evidence regarding the specific value of falls history in fracture risk assessment relative to that of other clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. We therefore investigated, across the three Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts, whether past falls predicted future fracture independently of FRAX and whether these associations varied with age and follow-up time. Elderly men were recruited from MrOS Sweden, Hong Kong, and USA. Baseline data included falls history (over the preceding 12 months), clinical risk factors, BMD at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the associations between falls, FRAX probability, and incident fracture, adjusting for age, time since baseline, and cohort in base models; further models were used to investigate interactions with age and follow-up time. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the individual country associations. Information on falls and FRAX probability was available for 4365 men in USA (mean age 73.5 years; mean follow-up 10.8 years), 1823 men in Sweden (mean age 75.4 years; mean follow-up 8.7 years), and 1669 men in Hong Kong (mean age 72.4 years; mean follow-up 9.8 years). Rates of past falls were similar at 20%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Across all cohorts, past falls predicted incident fracture at any site (hazard ratio [HR]=1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 1.90), major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (HR=1.56; 95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and hip fracture (HR=1.61; 95% CI 1.27, 2.05). Relationships between past falls and incident fracture remained robust after adjustment for FRAX probability: adjusted HR (95% CI) any fracture: 1.63 (1.45, 1.83); MOF: 1.51 (1.32, 1.73); and hip: 1.54 (1.21, 1.95). In conclusion, past falls predicted incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, confirming the potential value of falls history in fracture risk assessment.
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| 10. |
- Harvey, Nicholas C, et al.
(författare)
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Incidence of myocardial infarction and associated mortality varies by latitude and season: findings from a Swedish Registry Study.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of public health (Oxford, England). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1741-3850 .- 1741-3842. ; 42:4, s. e440-e448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigated whether the incidence of death following myocardial infarction (MI) varied by season and latitude in the Swedish population.We studied deaths following MI from January 1987 to December 2009, using the Swedish National Cause of Death Register. County of residence was used to determine latitude and population density. An extension of Poisson regression was used to study the relationship between risk of death following MI with age, latitude, time (from 1987), population density and calendar days.Over the study period, there was a secular decrease in the incidence of MI-related death. In men, MI-related death incidence increased by 1.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-1.5] per degree of latitude (northwards). In women, MI-related death incidence increased by 0.6% (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) per degree of latitude. There was seasonal variation in the risk of MI-related death with peak values in the late winter and a nadir in the summer months in both the north and the south of Sweden. Findings were similar with incident MI as the outcome.The incidence of MI-related death varied markedly by season and latitude in Sweden, with summer months and more southerly latitude associated with lower rates than winter months and more northerly latitude.
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