| 1. |
- Ntaios, George, et al.
(författare)
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A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 93:23, s. e2094-e2104
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration.In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively.The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.
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| 2. |
- Paciaroni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Early recurrence in paroxysmal versus sustained atrial fibrillation in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.
- 2019
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Ingår i: European stroke journal. - : SAGE Publications. - 2396-9881 .- 2396-9873. ; 4:1, s. 55-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between different patterns of atrial fibrillation and early recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke is unclear.In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the rates of early ischaemic recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation which included persistent and permanent atrial fibrillation.In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, atrial fibrillation was categorised as paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation. Ischaemic recurrences were the composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack and symptomatic systemic embolism occurring within 90 days from acute index stroke.A total of 2150 patients (1155 females, 53.7%) were enrolled: 930 (43.3%) had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and 1220 (56.7%) sustained atrial fibrillation. During the 90-day follow-up, 111 ischaemic recurrences were observed in 107 patients: 31 in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (3.3%) and 76 with sustained atrial fibrillation (6.2%) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.86 (95% CI 1.24-2.81)). Patients with sustained atrial fibrillation were on average older, more likely to have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of stroke/ transient ischaemic attack, congestive heart failure, atrial enlargement, high baseline NIHSS-score and implanted pacemaker. After adjustment by Cox proportional hazard model, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with early ischaemic recurrences (adjusted HR 1.23 (95% CI 0.74-2.04)).After acute ischaemic stroke, patients with sustained atrial fibrillation had a higher rate of early ischaemic recurrence than patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for relevant risk factors, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with a significantly higher risk of recurrence, thus suggesting that the risk profile associated with atrial fibrillation, rather than its pattern, is determinant for recurrence.
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