| 1. |
- Berchet, Antoine, et al.
(författare)
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The Community Inversion Framework v1.0 : A unified system for atmospheric inversion studies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:8, s. 5331-5354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atmospheric inversion approaches are expected to play a critical role in future observation-based monitoring systems for surface fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs), pollutants and other trace gases. In the past decade, the research community has developed various inversion software, mainly using variational or ensemble Bayesian optimization methods, with various assumptions on uncertainty structures and prior information and with various atmospheric chemistry-Transport models. Each of them can assimilate some or all of the available observation streams for its domain area of interest: flask samples, in situ measurements or satellite observations. Although referenced in peer-reviewed publications and usually accessible across the research community, most systems are not at the level of transparency, flexibility and accessibility needed to provide the scientific community and policy makers with a comprehensive and robust view of the uncertainties associated with the inverse estimation of GHG and reactive species fluxes. Furthermore, their development, usually carried out by individual research institutes, may in the future not keep pace with the increasing scientific needs and technical possibilities. We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is primarily a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers. In practice, the ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool to estimate the fluxes of various GHGs and reactive species both at the global and regional scales. It will allow for running different atmospheric transport models, different observation streams and different data assimilation approaches. This adaptability will allow for a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty in a fully consistent framework. We present here the main structure and functionalities of the system, and we demonstrate how it operates in a simple academic case.
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| 2. |
- Bergamaschi, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 18:2, s. 901-920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present inverse modelling (top down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006–2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonised in situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.8 (20.2–29.7) Tg CH4 yr−1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006–2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3–8.2) Tg CH4 yr−1 from the EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Taking into account the wetland emissions from the WETCHIMP ensemble, the top-down estimates are broadly consistent with the sum of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories. However, the contribution of natural sources and their regional distribution remain rather uncertain. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. The estimated average regional biases range between −40 and 20 % at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.
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| 3. |
- Donofrio, Claudio, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term Reproducibility for Jupyter Notebook
- 2023
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Computational notebooks (e.g. Jupyter notebook) are a popular choice for interactive scientific computing to convey descriptive information together with executable source code. The user can annotate the scientific development of the work, the methods applied, describe ancillary data or the analysis of results, with text, illustrations, figures, and equations. Such ‘executable’ documents provide a paradigm shift in scientific writing, where not only the science is described, but the actual computation and source code are openly available and can be reproduced and validated.Therefore, it is of paramount importance to preserve these documents. A unique and persistent identification (PID) is essential together with providing enough information to execute the source code. Generating a PID for a Jupyter notebook is not technically challenging. We can automatically collect system and run-time information and, with a guided workflow for the user, assemble a rich set of metadata. The collected information allows us to recreate the computational environment and run the source code, which in return (theoretically) should produce the same results as published.The importance of providing a rich set of metadata for all digital objects in a human readable and machine actionable form is well understood and widely accepted as necessity for reproducibility, traceability, and provenance. This is reflected in the FAIR principles (Wilkinson, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18) which are regarded as gold standard by many scientific communities.Pimentel et al. (https://doi.org/10.1109/MSR.2019.00077) analysed over 800’000 Jupyter notebooks from GitHub. 24 % executed without errors and only 4 % produced the same results. The likelihood to successfully compile and run a decade old source code is slim. Long term support for well established operating systems varies between 5 to 10 years, user software support is usually shorter and looking at free and open-source repositories there is often no support (or best effort) offered.We present an approach to safely reproduce the computational environment in the future with a focus on long-term availability. Instead of trying to reinstall the computational environment based on the stored metadata, we propose to archive the docker image, the user space (user installed packages) and finally the source code. Recreating the system in this way is more like restoring a backup, where backup is the equivalent of an entire computer system. It does not solve all the problems but removes a great deal of complexity and uncertainty.Though there are shortcomings in our approach, we believe our solution will lower the threshold for scientists to provide rich meta data, code and results attached to a publication that can be reproduced in the far future.
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| 4. |
- Garcia-Closas, Montserrat, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneity of breast cancer associations with five susceptibility loci by clinical and pathological characteristics
- 2008
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Ingår i: PLoS genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7404. ; 4:4, s. e1000054-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A three-stage genome-wide association study recently identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in five loci (fibroblast growth receptor 2 (FGFR2), trinucleotide repeat containing 9 (TNRC9), mitogen-activated protein kinase 3 K1 (MAP3K1), 8q24, and lymphocyte-specific protein 1 (LSP1)) associated with breast cancer risk. We investigated whether the associations between these SNPs and breast cancer risk varied by clinically important tumor characteristics in up to 23,039 invasive breast cancer cases and 26,273 controls from 20 studies. We also evaluated their influence on overall survival in 13,527 cases from 13 studies. All participants were of European or Asian origin. rs2981582 in FGFR2 was more strongly related to ER-positive (per-allele OR (95%CI) = 1.31 (1.27-1.36)) than ER-negative (1.08 (1.03-1.14)) disease (P for heterogeneity = 10(-13)). This SNP was also more strongly related to PR-positive, low grade and node positive tumors (P = 10(-5), 10(-8), 0.013, respectively). The association for rs13281615 in 8q24 was stronger for ER-positive, PR-positive, and low grade tumors (P = 0.001, 0.011 and 10(-4), respectively). The differences in the associations between SNPs in FGFR2 and 8q24 and risk by ER and grade remained significant after permutation adjustment for multiple comparisons and after adjustment for other tumor characteristics. Three SNPs (rs2981582, rs3803662, and rs889312) showed weak but significant associations with ER-negative disease, the strongest association being for rs3803662 in TNRC9 (1.14 (1.09-1.21)). rs13281615 in 8q24 was associated with an improvement in survival after diagnosis (per-allele HR = 0.90 (0.83-0.97). The association was attenuated and non-significant after adjusting for known prognostic factors. Our findings show that common genetic variants influence the pathological subtype of breast cancer and provide further support for the hypothesis that ER-positive and ER-negative disease are biologically distinct. Understanding the etiologic heterogeneity of breast cancer may ultimately result in improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment.
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| 5. |
- Harrie, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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The need for country masks for future national greenhouse gas flux estimations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geospatial Technologies for All : short papers, posters and poster abstracts of the 21th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science. Lund University 12-15 June 2018, Lund, Sweden - short papers, posters and poster abstracts of the 21th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science. Lund University 12-15 June 2018, Lund, Sweden. - 9783319782089
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Paris Agreement requests a substantial reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emissions are currently mainly estimated from bottom-up inventories and process-based models of land and ocean fluxes. Another, complementary approach is based on measurements of the atmospheric GHG concentration in combination with atmospheric inverse modelling to provide the GHG fluxes. For the latter approach the GIScience community should contribute with providing an appropriate country mask to enable estimations of national budgets. This paper aims at describing the requirement of such a country mask as well as report on technical solutions for preliminary tests we made on national GHG flux estimations.
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| 6. |
- Heiskanen, Jouni, et al.
(författare)
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The Integrated Carbon Observation System in Europe
- 2022
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 103:3, s. 855-872
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 1750, land-use change and fossil fuel combustion has led to a 46% increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, causing global warming with substantial societal consequences. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increases to well below 2C above preindustrial levels. Increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), in the atmosphere are the primary cause of climate change. Approximately half of the carbon emissions to the atmosphere are sequestered by ocean and land sinks, leading to ocean acidification but also slowing the rate of global warming. However, there are significant uncertainties in the future global warming scenarios due to uncertainties in the size, nature, and stability of these sinks. Quantifying and monitoring the size and timing of natural sinks and the impact of climate change on ecosystems are important information to guide policy-makers' decisions and strategies on reductions in emissions. Continuous, long-term observations are required to quantify GHG emissions, sinks, and their impacts on Earth systems. The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) was designed as the European in situ observation and information system to support science and society in their efforts to mitigate climate change. It provides standardized and open data currently from over 140 measurement stations across 12 European countries. The stations observe GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and carbon and GHG fluxes between the atmosphere, land surface, and the oceans. This article describes how ICOS fulfills its mission to harmonize these observations, ensure the related long-term financial commitments, provide easy access to well-documented and reproducible high-quality data and related protocols and tools for scientific studies, and deliver information and GHG-related products to stakeholders in society and policy.
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| 7. |
- Karstens, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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A process-based 222radon flux map for Europe and its comparison to long-term observations
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 15:22, s. 12845-12865
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Detailed (222)radon (Rn-222) flux maps are an essential pre-requisite for the use of radon in atmospheric transport studies. Here we present a high-resolution Rn-222 flux map for Europe, based on a parameterization of Rn-222 production and transport in the soil. The Rn-222 exhalation rate is parameterized based on soil properties, uranium content, and modelled soil moisture from two different land-surface reanalysis data sets. Spatial variations in exhalation rates are primarily determined by the uranium content of the soil, but also influenced by soil texture and local water-table depth. Temporal variations are related to soil moisture variations as the molecular diffusion in the unsaturated soil zone depends on available air-filled pore space. The implemented diffusion parameterization was tested against campaign-based Rn-222 soil profile measurements. Monthly Rn-222 exhalation rates from European soils were calculated with a nominal spatial resolution of 0.083 degrees x 0.083 degrees and compared to long-term direct measurements of Rn-222 exhalation rates in different areas of Europe. The two realizations of the Rn-222 flux map, based on the different soil moisture data sets, both realistically reproduce the observed seasonality in the fluxes but yield considerable differences for absolute flux values. The mean Rn-222 flux from soils in Europe is estimated to be 10 mBq m(-2) s(-1) (ERA-Interim/Land soil moisture) or 15 mBq m(-2) s(-1) (GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) Noah soil moisture) for the period 2006-2010. The corresponding seasonal variations with low fluxes in winter and high fluxes in summer range in the two realizations from ca. 7 to ca. 14 mBq m(-2) s(-1) and from ca. 11 to ca. 20 mBq m(-2) s(-1), respectively. These systematic differences highlight the importance of realistic soil moisture data for a reliable estimation of Rn-222 exhalation rates. Comparison with observations suggests that the flux estimates based on the GLDAS Noah soil moisture model on average better represent observed fluxes.
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| 8. |
- Kirchhoff, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Breast cancer risk and 6q22.33 : combined results from Breast Cancer Association Consortium and Consortium of Investigators on Modifiers of BRCA1/2
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public library of science. - 1932-6203. ; 7:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, a locus on chromosome 6q22.33 (rs2180341) was reported to be associated with increased breast cancer risk in the Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population, and this association was also observed in populations of non-AJ European ancestry. In the present study, we performed a large replication analysis of rs2180341 using data from 31,428 invasive breast cancer cases and 34,700 controls collected from 25 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). In addition, we evaluated whether rs2180341 modifies breast cancer risk in 3,361 BRCA1 and 2,020 BRCA2 carriers from 11 centers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Based on the BCAC data from women of European ancestry, we found evidence for a weak association with breast cancer risk for rs2180341 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.023). There was evidence for heterogeneity in the ORs among studies (I(2) = 49.3%; p = <0.004). In CIMBA, we observed an inverse association with the minor allele of rs2180341 and breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers (per-allele OR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.80-1.00, p = 0.048), indicating a potential protective effect of this allele. These data suggest that that 6q22.33 confers a weak effect on breast cancer risk.
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| 9. |
- Levin, Ingeborg, et al.
(författare)
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A dedicated flask sampling strategy developed for Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) stations based on CO2 and CO measurements and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) footprint modelling
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:18, s. 11161-11180
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In situ CO2 and CO measurements from five Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) atmosphere stations have been analysed together with footprint model runs from the regional Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model to develop a dedicated strategy for flask sampling with an automated sampler. Flask sampling in ICOS has three different purposes, namely (1) to provide an independent quality control for in situ observations, (2) to provide representative information on atmospheric components currently not monitored in situ at the stations, and (3) to collect samples for 14CO2 analysis that are significantly influenced by fossil fuel CO2 ( ffCO2 ) emission areas. Based on the existing data and experimental results obtained at the Heidelberg pilot station with a prototype flask sampler, we suggest that single flask samples are collected regularly every third day around noon or in the afternoon from the highest level of a tower station. Air samples shall be collected over 1 h, with equal temporal weighting, to obtain a true hourly mean. At all stations studied, more than 50 % of flasks collected around midday will likely be sampled during low ambient variability ( <0.5 parts per million (ppm) standard deviation of 1 min values). Based on a first application at the Hohenpeißenberg ICOS site, such flask data are principally suitable for detecting CO2 concentration biases larger than 0.1 ppm with a 1 σ confidence level between flask and in situ observations from only five flask comparisons. In order to have a maximum chance to also sample ffCO2 emission areas, additional flasks are collected on all other days in the afternoon. To check if the ffCO2 component will indeed be large in these samples, we use the continuous in situ CO observations. The CO deviation from an estimated background value is determined the day after each flask sampling, and depending on this offset, an automated decision is made as to whether a flask shall be retained for 14CO2 analysis. It turned out that, based on existing data, ffCO2 events of more than 4-5 ppm that would allow ffCO2 estimates with an uncertainty below 30 % were very rare at all stations studied, particularly in summer (only zero to five events per month from May to August). During the other seasons, events could be collected more frequently. The strategy developed in this project is currently being implemented at the ICOS stations.
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| 10. |
- Levin, Ingeborg, et al.
(författare)
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Limitations of the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - A case study for methane in Heidelberg
- 2021
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 21:23, s. 17907-17926
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Correlations of nighttime atmospheric methane (CH4) and 222radon (222Rn) observations in Heidelberg, Germany, were evaluated with the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate the trend of annual nocturnal CH4 emissions from 1996-2020 in the footprint of the station. After an initial 30ĝ€¯% decrease in emissions from 1996 to 2004, there was no further systematic trend but small inter-annual variations were observed thereafter. This is in accordance with the trend of total emissions until 2010 reported by the EDGARv6.0 inventory for the surroundings of Heidelberg and provides a fully independent top-down verification of the bottom-up inventory changes. We show that the reliability of total nocturnal CH4 emission estimates with the RTM critically depends on the accuracy and representativeness of the 222Rn exhalation rates estimated from soils in the footprint of the site. Simply using 222Rn fluxes as estimated by Karstens et al. (2015) could lead to biases in the estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes as large as a factor of 2. RTM-based GHG flux estimates also depend on the parameters chosen for the nighttime correlations of CH4 and 222Rn, such as the nighttime period for regressions and the R2 cut-off value for the goodness of the fit. Quantitative comparison of total RTM-based top-down flux estimates with bottom-up emission inventories requires representative high-resolution footprint modelling, particularly in polluted areas where CH4 emissions show large heterogeneity. Even then, RTM-based estimates are likely biased low if point sources play a significant role in the station footprint as their emissions may not be fully captured by the RTM method, for example, if stack emissions are injected above the top of the nocturnal inversion layer or if point-source emissions from the surface are not well mixed into the footprint of the measurement site. Long-term representative 222Rn flux observations in the footprint of a station are indispensable in order to apply the RTM method for reliable quantitative flux estimations of GHG emissions from atmospheric observations.
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