| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N., et al.
(författare)
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The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
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| 5. |
- Paternoster, Lavinia, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-Wide Association Meta-Analysis of Cortical Bone Mineral Density Unravels Allelic Heterogeneity at the RANKL Locus and Potential Pleiotropic Effects on Bone
- 2010
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Ingår i: PLoS Genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7390 .- 1553-7404. ; 6:11, s. e1001217-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Previous genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified SNPs associated with areal bone mineral density (aBMD). However, this measure is influenced by several different skeletal parameters, such as periosteal expansion, cortical bone mineral density (BMDC) cortical thickness, trabecular number, and trabecular thickness, which may be under distinct biological and genetic control. We have carried out a GWA and replication study of BMDC, as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), a more homogenous and valid measure of actual volumetric bone density. After initial GWA meta-analysis of two cohorts (ALSPAC n = 999, aged similar to 15 years and GOOD n = 935, aged similar to 19 years), we attempted to replicate the BMDC associations that had p<1 x 10(-5) in an independent sample of ALSPAC children (n = 2803) and in a cohort of elderly men (MrOS Sweden, n = 1052). The rs1021188 SNP (near RANKL) was associated with BMDC in all cohorts (overall p = 2 x 10(-14), n = 5739). Each minor allele was associated with a decrease in BMDC of similar to 0.14SD. There was also evidence for an interaction between this variant and sex (p = 0.01), with a stronger effect in males than females (at age 15, males -6.77mg/cm(3) per C allele, p = 2 x 10(-6); females -2.79 mg/cm(3) per C allele, p = 0.004). Furthermore, in a preliminary analysis, the rs1021188 minor C allele was associated with higher circulating levels of sRANKL (p<0.005). We show this variant to be independent from the previously aBMD associated SNP (rs9594738) and possibly from a third variant in the same RANKL region, which demonstrates important allelic heterogeneity at this locus. Associations with skeletal parameters reflecting bone dimensions were either not found or were much less pronounced. This finding implicates RANKL as a locus containing variation associated with volumetric bone density and provides further insight into the mechanism by which the RANK/RANKL/OPG pathway may be involved in skeletal development.
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| 6. |
- Raghavan, Maanasa, et al.
(författare)
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Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans
- 2015
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 349:6250
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Howand when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative "Paleoamerican" relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericues and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.
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| 7. |
- Petherick, L., et al.
(författare)
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Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia - a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 74, s. 58-77
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (similar to 30-22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (similar to 22-18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (similar to 18-12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after similar to 12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after similar to 6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.
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