| 1. |
- Gardumi, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways : Challenges and benefits
- 2022
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 258, s. 124329-124329
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.
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| 2. |
- DeCarolis, Joseph, et al.
(författare)
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Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling
- 2017
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 194, s. 184-198
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are widely used to generate insight that informs energy and environmental policy. Using ESOMs to produce policy-relevant insight requires significant modeler judgement, yet little formal guidance exists on how to conduct analysis with ESOMs. To address this shortcoming, we draw on our collective modelling experience and conduct an extensive literature review to formalize best practice for energy system optimization modelling. We begin by articulating a set of overarching principles that can be used to guide ESOM-based analysis. To help operationalize the guiding principles, we outline and explain critical steps in the modelling process, including how to formulate research questions, set spatio-temporal boundaries, consider appropriate model features, conduct and refine the analysis, quantify uncertainty, and communicate insights. We highlight the need to develop and refine formal guidance on ESOM application, which comes at a critical time as ESOMs are being used to inform national climate targets.
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| 3. |
- Fuso Nerini, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 17, s. 19-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design.
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| 4. |
- Jewell, Jessica, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 578:7793, s. E5-E7
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 5. |
- van der Zwaan, B., et al.
(författare)
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How to decarbonize the transport sector?
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 61, s. 562-573
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article investigates possible evolution pathways for the transport sector during the 21st century, globally and in Europe, under a climate change control scenario. We attempt to shed light on the question how the transport sector should best be decarbonized. We perform our study with the global bottom-up energy systems model TIAM-ECN, a version of the TIAM model that is broadly used for the purpose of developing energy technology and climate policy scenarios, which we adapted for analyzing in particular the transport sector. Given the global aggregated perspective of TIAM-ECN, that in its current version yields at every point in time a single CO2 price for different forms of energy use across geographic regions and economic sectors, it generates a decarbonization process that for the transport sector occurs later in time than for the power sector. This merely reflects that emission reductions are generally cheaper for electricity production than for transportation, and that it is thus cost-minimizing to spend limited financial resources available for CO2 emissions abatement in the power sector first. In our scenarios the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines and fuel cells, rather than electricity as energy carrier and batteries to store it, gradually becomes the dominant transport technology. This outcome is in agreement with some recent publications but is at loggerheads with the current popularity of the electric car. Based on sensitivity analysis we conclude that even if the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure proves about an order of magnitude more costly than modeled in our base case, electricity. based transportation only broadly emerges if simultaneously also the costs of electric cars go down by at least 40% with respect to our reference costs. One of the explanations for why the electric car is today, by e.g. entrepreneurs, often considered the supposed winner amongst multiple future transportation options is that the decision horizon of many analysts is no more than a few decades, instead of a full century. Electric cars fit better the current infrastructure than hydrogen fueled vehicles, so that from a short time perspective (covering the next decade or two) investments are not optimally spent by establishing an extensive hydrogen distribution network. Hence the path-dependency created by the present existence of a vast power transmission and distribution network can make electricity the most efficient choice for transportation, but only if the time frame considered is short. Electric transportation generally proves the more expensive alternative in our long-term perspective, except when electric car costs are assumed to drop substantially.
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