| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Hahn, Jong Woo, et al.
(författare)
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Global incidence and prevalence of autoimmune hepatitis, 1970-2022: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: eClinicalMedicine. - : ELSEVIER. - 2589-5370. ; 65
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) varies significantly in incidence and prevalence across countries and regions. We aimed to examine global, regional, and national trends in incidence and prevalence of AIH from 1970 to 2022.Methods We conducted a thorough search of the PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Cochrane databases from database inception to August 9, 2023, using the search term "autoimmune hepatitis" in combination with "incidence," "prevalence," or "trend." Only general population-based observational studies with larger samples sizes were considered for inclusion. Studies that recruited convenience samples, and those with fewer than 50 participants were excluded. Summary data were extracted from published reports. A random effects model was used and pooled estimates with 95% CI were used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of AIH. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I-2 statistic. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023430138. Findings A total of 37 eligible studies, encompassing more than 239 million participants and 55,839 patients with AIH from 18 countries across five continents, were included in the analysis. Global pooled incidence and prevalence of AIH were found to be 1.28 cases per 100,000 inhabitant-years (95% CI, 1.01-1.63, I-2 = 99<middle dot>51%; number of studies, 33; sample population, 220,673,674) and 15.65 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI, 13.42-18.24, I-2 = 99<middle dot>75%; number of studies, 26; sample population, 217,178,684), respectively. The incidence of AIH was greater in countries with high Human Development Index (>0.92), in North America and Oceania (compared with Asia), among females, adults (compared with children), and high latitude (>45 degrees). Similar patterns in AIH prevalence were observed. Pooled AIH prevalence increased gradually from 1970 to 2019 (1970-1999; 9.95 [4.77-15.13], I-2 = 95<middle dot>58% versus 2015-2022; 27.91 [24.86-30.96], I-2 = 99<middle dot>32%; cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The overall incidence and prevalence of AIH, as well as some subgroup analyses of the studies, displayed asymmetry in the funnel plots, suggesting potential evidence of publication bias.Interpretation AIH incidence and prevalence have increased significantly and exhibit substantial variation across regions worldwide. Further research is required to assess the incidence and prevalence of AIH, specifically in South America and Africa.
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| 3. |
- Jung, Young-Eun, et al.
(författare)
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The Korean version of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale: An extended validation
- 2012
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Ingår i: Stress and Health. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1532-3005 .- 1532-2998. ; 28:4, s. 319-326
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD‐RISC) is a brief self‐rating questionnaire for measuring resilience. The aims of the present study were to describe the development of a Korean version of the CD‐RISC (K‐CD‐RISC) and to more firmly establish its psychometric properties in terms of reliability and validity. The participants consisted of a general population sample (n = 194) and psychiatric outpatients (n = 127) with non‐psychotic mood or anxiety disorders. The K‐CD‐RISC score means (standard deviation) were 65.9 (13.6) in the general population and 50.4 (20.5) in the psychiatric outpatients. The mean score of the general population was significantly higher than that of the psychiatric outpatients. Exploratory factor analysis revealed five factors, and the obtained factor structure was verified through confirmatory factor analysis. In the general population, the Cronbach's α coefficient of the K‐CD‐RISC was found to be 0.92. Greater resilience was found to be associated with less perceived stress, anxiety and depression and with higher levels of positive affect and purpose in life. Taken together, our findings suggest that the K‐CD‐RISC has good psychometric properties and is a valid and reliable tool for assessing resilience.
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| 4. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 5. |
- Yang, Jae-Jin, et al.
(författare)
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사회보장재원구성에 관한 기초연구
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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