| 1. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 351:6280, s. 1433-1436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that weremade publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
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| 2. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:9, s. 637-644
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated truepositive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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| 3. |
- Huber, J., et al.
(författare)
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Market versus Residence Principle: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax
- 2017
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Ingår i: Economic Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0013-0133 .- 1468-0297. ; 127:605, s. F610-F631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effects of a financial transaction tax (FTT) are scientifically disputed, as seemingly small details of its implementation may matter a lot. In this article, we provide experimental evidence on the different effects of an FTT, depending on whether it is implemented as a tax on markets, on residents, or a combination of both. We find that a tax on markets has negative effects on volatility and trading volume, whereas a tax on residents shows none of these undesired effects. Additionally, we observe that individual risk attitude is not related to traders’ reaction to the different forms of an FTT. © 2017 The Authors. The Economic Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Economic Society.
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| 4. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Market design and moral behavior
- 2016
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Ingår i: Management science. - : Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). - 0025-1909 .- 1526-5501. ; 62:9, s. 2615-2625
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In an experiment with 739 subjects, we study whether and how different interventions might have an influence on the degree of moral behavior when subjects make decisions that can generate negative externalities on uninvolved parties. Particularly, subjects can either take money for themselves or donate it to UNICEF for measles vaccines. By considering two fairly different institutional regimes-one with individual decision making, one with a double-auction market-we expose the different interventions to a kind of robustness check. We find that the threat of monetary punishment promotes moral behavior in both regimes. Getting subjects more involved with the traded good has no effect, though, in both regimes. Only the removal of anonymity, thus making subjects identifiable, has different effects across regimes, which we explain by different perceptions of responsibility.
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| 5. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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The "inflow-effect"-Trader inflow and price efficiency
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Economic Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-2921. ; 77, s. 1-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi-period experimental asset markets. Implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects, we find that (i) the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run-ups (inflow-effect). Remarkably, the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust. The effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information. We further show that (ii) in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders, prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset. The analysis of traders' beliefs reveals that (iii) despite fundamental values staying constant, beliefs about fundamentals co-move with upwardly trending prices. Finally, we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow-effect. (C) 2015 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Razen, M., et al.
(författare)
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Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Economic Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-2921. ; 92, s. 359-384
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is conjectured that one of the major ingredients of historic financial bubbles was the inflow of money in various forms. We run 36 laboratory asset markets to investigate the joint effect of cash inflow and trading horizon on price efficiency. We show that markets with cash inflow and long trading horizon exhibit bubbles and crashes. We also observe that markets with extended trading horizon but without cash inflow and markets with shorter trading horizon do not trigger bubbles. Finally, we report that beliefs about prices and, importantly, about (constant) fundamentals follow bubble patterns as well.
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| 7. |
- Stockl, T., et al.
(författare)
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Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-2681. ; 117, s. 327-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In laboratory experiments we explore the effects of communication and group decision making on investment behavior and on subjects' proneness to behavioral biases. Most importantly, we show that communication and group decision making do not impact subjects' overall proneness to the hot hand fallacy and to the gambler's fallacy. However, groups decide differently than individuals, as they rely significantly less on useless outside advice from "experts" and choose the risk-free option less frequently. Furthermore we document gender differences in investment behavior: groups of two female subjects choose the risk-free investment more often and are marginally more prone to the hot hand fallacy than groups of two male subjects. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 8. |
- Stockl, T., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Experimental Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-4157 .- 1573-6938. ; 18:2, s. 314-334
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this methodological study we analyze price adjustment processes in multi-period laboratory asset markets with five distinct fundamental value regimes in a unified framework. Minimizing the effect of between-treatment variations we run markets with deterministically decreasing, constant, randomly fluctuating and-as main innovation-markets with deterministically increasing s. We find (i) efficient pricing in markets with constant s, (ii) overvaluation in markets with decreasing s, and (iii) undervaluation in markets with increasing s. (iv) Markets with randomly fluctuating fundamentals show overvaluation when s predominantly decline and undervaluation when s are mostly upward-sloping. Finally, we document that (v) bid-ask spreads and volatility of price changes are positively correlated with mispricing across regimes. The main contribution of the paper is to provide clean comparisons between distinct regimes, in particular between markets with increasing s and other regimes.
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