| 1. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 351:6280, s. 1433-1436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that weremade publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
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| 2. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:9, s. 637-644
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated truepositive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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| 3. |
- Fang, Dawei, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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How tournament incentives affect asset markets: A comparison between winner-take-all tournaments and elimination contests
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-1889. ; 75, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the impact of investment managers׳ tournament incentives on investment strategies and market efficiency, distinguishing between winner-take-all tournaments (WTA), where a minority wins, and elimination contests (EC), where a majority wins. Theoretically, we show that investment managers play heterogeneous strategies in WTA and homogeneous strategies in EC, and markets are more prone to mispricing in WTA than in EC. Experimentally, we find that investment managers play more heterogeneous strategies in WTA than in EC, but this does not trigger significant differences in prices. Moreover, prices in WTA and EC do not differ significantly from markets composed of linearly incentivized subjects.
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| 4. |
- Huber, J., et al.
(författare)
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Market versus Residence Principle: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax
- 2017
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Ingår i: Economic Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0013-0133 .- 1468-0297. ; 127:605, s. F610-F631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effects of a financial transaction tax (FTT) are scientifically disputed, as seemingly small details of its implementation may matter a lot. In this article, we provide experimental evidence on the different effects of an FTT, depending on whether it is implemented as a tax on markets, on residents, or a combination of both. We find that a tax on markets has negative effects on volatility and trading volume, whereas a tax on residents shows none of these undesired effects. Additionally, we observe that individual risk attitude is not related to traders’ reaction to the different forms of an FTT. © 2017 The Authors. The Economic Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Economic Society.
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| 5. |
- Huber, Jürgen, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of investment experience on market prices: laboratory evidence
- 2016
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Ingår i: Experimental Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-4157 .- 1573-6938. ; 19:2, s. 394-411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We run laboratory experiments to analyze the impact of prior investment experience on price efficiency in asset markets. Before subjects enter the asset market they gain either no, positive, or negative investment experience in an investment game. To get a comprehensive picture about the role of experience we implement two asset market designs. One is prone to inefficient pricing, exhibiting bubble and crash patterns, while the other exhibits efficient pricing. We find that (i) both, positive and negative, experience gained in the investment game lead to efficient pricing in both market settings. Further, we show that (ii) the experience effect dominates potential effects triggered by positive and negative sentiment generated by the investment game. We conjecture that experiencing changing price paths in the investment game can create a higher sensibility on changing fundamentals (through higher salience) among subjects in the subsequently run asset market.
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| 6. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Immaterial and monetary gifts in economic transactions: evidence from the field
- 2018
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Ingår i: Experimental Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-4157 .- 1573-6938. ; 21:1, s. 205-230
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reciprocation of monetary gifts is well-understood in economics. In contrast, there is little research on reciprocal behavior following immaterial gifts like compliments. We narrow this gap and investigate how employees reciprocate after receiving immaterial gifts and material gifts over time. We purchase (1) ice cream from fast food restaurants, and (2) durum doner, a common lunch snack, from independent vendors. Prior to the food's preparation, we either compliment or tip the salesperson. We find that salespersons reciprocate compliments with higher product weight than in a control treatment. Importantly, this reciprocal behavior following immaterial gifts grows over repeated transactions. Tips, in contrast, have a stronger level effect which does not change over time.
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| 7. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Market design and moral behavior
- 2016
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Ingår i: Management science. - : Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). - 0025-1909 .- 1526-5501. ; 62:9, s. 2615-2625
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In an experiment with 739 subjects, we study whether and how different interventions might have an influence on the degree of moral behavior when subjects make decisions that can generate negative externalities on uninvolved parties. Particularly, subjects can either take money for themselves or donate it to UNICEF for measles vaccines. By considering two fairly different institutional regimes-one with individual decision making, one with a double-auction market-we expose the different interventions to a kind of robustness check. We find that the threat of monetary punishment promotes moral behavior in both regimes. Getting subjects more involved with the traded good has no effect, though, in both regimes. Only the removal of anonymity, thus making subjects identifiable, has different effects across regimes, which we explain by different perceptions of responsibility.
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| 8. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Rankings and Risk-Taking in the Finance Industry
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Finance. - : Wiley. - 0022-1082. ; 73:5, s. 2271-2302
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rankings are omnipresent in the finance industry, yet the literature is silent on how they impact financial professionals' behavior. Using lab-in-the-field experiments with 657 professionals and lab experiments with 432 students, we investigate how rank incentives affect investment decisions. We find that both rank and tournament incentives increase risk-taking among underperforming professionals, while only tournament incentives affect students. This rank effect is robust to the experimental frame (investment frame vs. abstract frame), to payoff consequences (own return vs. family return), to social identity priming (private identity vs. professional identity), and to professionals' gender (no gender differences among professionals).
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| 9. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 54:1, s. 37-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.
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| 10. |
- Kirchler, Michael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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The "inflow-effect"-Trader inflow and price efficiency
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Economic Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-2921. ; 77, s. 1-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi-period experimental asset markets. Implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects, we find that (i) the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run-ups (inflow-effect). Remarkably, the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust. The effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information. We further show that (ii) in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders, prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset. The analysis of traders' beliefs reveals that (iii) despite fundamental values staying constant, beliefs about fundamentals co-move with upwardly trending prices. Finally, we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow-effect. (C) 2015 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.
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