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Sökning: WFRF:(Kjellström Erik)

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  • [1]234567...8Nästa
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  • Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al. (författare)
  • Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
  • Ahlberg, Erik, et al. (författare)
  • "Vi klimatforskare stödjer Greta och skolungdomarna"
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Dagens nyheter (DN debatt). - 1101-2447.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
    • DN DEBATT 15/3. Sedan industrialiseringens början har vi använt omkring fyra femtedelar av den mängd fossilt kol som får förbrännas för att vi ska klara Parisavtalet. Vi har bara en femtedel kvar och det är bråttom att kraftigt reducera utsläppen. Det har Greta Thunberg och de strejkande ungdomarna förstått. Därför stödjer vi deras krav, skriver 270 klimatforskare.
  • Glaas, Erik, 1981-, et al. (författare)
  • Increasing house owners adaptive capacity : Compliance between climate change risks and adaptation guidelines in Scandinavia
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Urban Climate. - : Elsevier. - 2212-0955 .- 2212-0955. ; 14:1, s. 41-51
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is expected to intensify weather related risks affecting the existing buildingstock. To increase the understanding of how the capacity among individual house ownersto mitigate such risks can be improved, this study analyses the compliance between anticipatedclimate risks and existing adaptation guidelines to house owners in Denmark,Norway and Sweden. The assessment of climate risks is based on a review of climatechange and building research literature. The compilation of available guidelines is basedon an assessment of information from government authorities, municipalities as well asinsurance companies and organizations. Results reveal a high compliance between availableguidelines and risks for already experienced weather risks, while somewhat new risksfrom anticipated climate change impacts are less covered. To better facilitate adaptiveresponses, further adaptation guidelines would earn from explicitly targeting house owners,as well as highlighting relationships between anticipated climate impacts, existingweather risks and individual management practices. Public–private cooperation is identifiedas an important means for making information more accessible and easily available.
  • Hartung, Kerstin, et al. (författare)
  • Resolution, physics and atmosphere–ocean interaction – How do they influence climate model representation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking?
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 69:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Atmospheric blocking events are known to locally explain a large part of climate variability. However, despite their relevance, many current climate models still struggle to represent the observed blocking statistics. In this study, simulations of the global climate model EC-Earth are analysed with respect to atmospheric blocking. Seventeen simulations map the uncertainty space defined by the three-model characteristics: atmospheric resolution, physical parameterization and complexity of atmosphere–ocean interaction, namely an atmosphere coupled to an ocean model or forced by surface data. Representation of the real-world statistics is obtained from reanalyses ERA-20C, JRA-55 and ERA-Interim which agree on Northern Hemisphere blocking characteristics. Blocking events are detected on a central blocking latitude which is individually determined for each simulation. The frequency of blocking events tends to be underestimated relative to ERA-Interim over the Atlantic and western Eurasia in winter and overestimated during spring months. However, only few model setups show statistically significant differences compared to ERA-Interim which can be explained by the large inter-annual variability of blocking. Results indicate slightly larger biases relative to ERA-Interim in coupled than in atmosphere-only models but differences between the two are not statistically significant. Although some resolution dependence is present in spring, the signal is weak and only statistically significant if the physical parameterizations of the model are improved simultaneously. Winter blocking is relatively more sensitive to physical parameterizations, and this signal is robust in both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations, although stronger in the latter. Overall, the model can capture blocking frequency well despite biases in representing the mean state of geopotential height over this area. Blocking signatures of geopotential height are represented more similar to ERA-Interim and only weak sensitivities to model characteristics remain.
  • Kjellström, Barbro, et al. (författare)
  • Sex-specific differences and survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension 2008-2016.
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: ERJ open research. - Lausanne, Switzerland : European Respiratory Society. - 2312-0541. ; 5:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Women with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) have been found to have a worse haemodynamic status at diagnosis, but better survival than men. Over the past decade, demographics have changed and new treatments have become available. The objective of this study was to investigate sex differences in an incident IPAH population diagnosed between 2008 and 2016.Differences in clinical characteristics of patients included in the Swedish Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Register (SPAHR) were analysed at the time of diagnosis. Survival by sex was investigated using Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.The study included 271 patients diagnosed with IPAH, median age was 68 (1st-3rd quartiles 54-74) years and 56% were women. At diagnosis, women were younger, had lower pulmonary vascular resistance and fewer comorbidities and more often received a combination of PAH-targeted therapies than men. Men had worse survival rates than women (hazard ratio 1.49; CI 1.02-2.18; p=0.038), but this difference did not remain after adjustment for age (hazard ratio 1.30; CI 0.89-1.90; p=0.178).Men with incident IPAH have worse crude survival than women. This is due to women being younger with a less pronounced comorbidity burden than men at the time of diagnosis.
  • Kjellström, Erik, et al. (författare)
  • Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 56:2, s. 103-119
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature change in the first 2 decades of the 21st century, typically earlier for summer than for winter. For precipitation changes, signals generally emerge much later than for temperature. For Europe as a whole, the precipitation signals tend to emerge some 40 to 60 yr later than the temperature signals. In some sub-regions, robust signals for precipitation are not found within the studied period, i.e. until 2100. Some sub-regions, notably the Mediterranean area and Scandinavia, show different behaviour in some aspects compared to the ensemble-based results as a whole. NAO has some influence on the temperature change signals, which emerge earlier in winter for some models and regions if NAO is accounted for. For summer temperatures, the influence of NAO is less evident. Similarly, for precipitation, accounting for NAO leads to an earlier emergence in some regions and models. Here, we find an impact for both summer and winter.
  • Kjellström, Erik, et al. (författare)
  • European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 459-478
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 degrees C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 degrees C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 degrees C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.
  • Lind, Petter (författare)
  • On the representation of precipitation in high-resolution regional climate models
  • 2016
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • Weather and climate models applied with sufficiently fine mesh grids to enable a large part of atmospheric deep convection to be explicitly resolved have shown a significantly improved representation of local, short-duration and intense precipitation events compared to coarser scale models. In this thesis, two studies are presented aimed at exploring the dependence of horizontal resolution and of parameterization of convection on the simulation of precipitation. The first examined the ability of HARMONIE Climate (HCLIM) regional climate model to reproduce the recent climate in Europe with two different horizontal resolutions, 15 and 6.25 km. The latter is part of the ”grey-zone” resolution interval corresponding to approximately 3-10 km. Particular focus has been given to rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability and other characteristics, for example intensity distributions. The model configuration with the higher resolution is much better at simulating days of large accumulated precipitation amounts, most evident when the comparison is made against high-resolution observations. Otherwise, the two simulations show similar skill, including the representation of the spatial structure of individual rainfall areas of primarily convective origin. The results suggest a ”scale-awareness” in HCLIM, which supports a central feature of the model’s description of deep convection as it is designed to operate independently of the horizontal resolution. In the second study, summer season precipitation over the Alps region, as simulated by HCLIM at different resolutions, is investigated. Similar model configurations as in the previous study were used, but in addition a simulation at the ”convection-permitting” 2 km resolution has been made over Central Europe. The latter considerably increases the realism compared to the former regarding the distribution and intensities of precipitation, as well as other important characteristics including the duration of rain spells, particularly on sub-daily time scales and for extreme events. The simulations with cumulus parameterization active underestimate short-duration heavy rainfall, and rainspells with low peak intensities are too persistent. Furthermore, even though the 6.25 km simulation generally reduces the biases seen in the 15 km run, definitive conclusions of the benefit of ”grey-zone” resolution is difficult to establish in context of the increased requirement of computer resources for the higher-resolution simulation.
  • Nasr, Amro, et al. (författare)
  • A review of the potential impacts of climate change on the safety and performance of bridges
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2378-9689. ; 6:3-4, s. 192-212
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • An overabundance of evidence, both observational and from model projections, indicate that changes to the climate system are taking place at unprecedented rates. Although the magnitudes of these changes involve large uncertainties, the fact that our climate is changing is unequivocal. To ensure an unimpaired functionality of our societies,it is therefore of crucial importance to study the potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Taking into account that bridges have a considerably long service life, it is of direct relevance to ascertain their reliable performance against climate change risks. This paper synthesizes the findings of over 190 research articles to identify the potential risks climate change may pose on bridges. Over 30 potential risks, supported by pertinent previous bridge damage (or failure) cases, are identified, categorized, and linked to the projected future climate changes. The identified risks can be used as a basis for future risk prioritization by bridge managers.
  • Nasr, Amro, et al. (författare)
  • Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future bridges
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Life-cycle analysis and assessment in Civil Engineering : Towards an integrated vision (IALCCE 2018) - Towards an integrated vision (IALCCE 2018). - : CRC Press. - 9781138626331 ; , s. 1735-1741
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent decades have seen an increased attention towards the threat of climate change to our built environment and not least our infrastructure. Accounting for the different ways in which potential climate change scenarios can affect our infrastructure is paramount in determining appropriate adaptation and risk management strategies. This paper presents the initial findings of a new research project which is concerned with establishing an improved management of the risks to our infrastructure, especially bridges, in light of a changing climate. In this paper, a preliminary survey of the climate change related risks on bridges is conducted. Timely consideration of these impacts is of utmost importance to ensure a satisfactory performance of our bridges in the future. The interplay between the different risks and how the occurrence of one risk may influence other risks is also briefly discussed. The future stages of the project are mentioned as well. The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Swedish Transport Administration. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions in this work are those of the authors and are not necessarily in accordance with those of the Swedish Transport Administration.
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