| 1. |
- Ahlberg, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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"Vi klimatforskare stödjer Greta och skolungdomarna"
- 2019
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Ingår i: Dagens nyheter (DN debatt). - 1101-2447.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- DN DEBATT 15/3. Sedan industrialiseringens början har vi använt omkring fyra femtedelar av den mängd fossilt kol som får förbrännas för att vi ska klara Parisavtalet. Vi har bara en femtedel kvar och det är bråttom att kraftigt reducera utsläppen. Det har Greta Thunberg och de strejkande ungdomarna förstått. Därför stödjer vi deras krav, skriver 270 klimatforskare.
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| 2. |
- Rutgersson, Anna, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus Publications. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 13:1, s. 251-301
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.
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| 3. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 4. |
- Glaas, Erik, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Increasing house owners adaptive capacity : Compliance between climate change risks and adaptation guidelines in Scandinavia
- 2015
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Ingår i: Urban Climate. - : Elsevier. - 2212-0955. ; 14:1, s. 41-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to intensify weather related risks affecting the existing buildingstock. To increase the understanding of how the capacity among individual house ownersto mitigate such risks can be improved, this study analyses the compliance between anticipatedclimate risks and existing adaptation guidelines to house owners in Denmark,Norway and Sweden. The assessment of climate risks is based on a review of climatechange and building research literature. The compilation of available guidelines is basedon an assessment of information from government authorities, municipalities as well asinsurance companies and organizations. Results reveal a high compliance between availableguidelines and risks for already experienced weather risks, while somewhat new risksfrom anticipated climate change impacts are less covered. To better facilitate adaptiveresponses, further adaptation guidelines would earn from explicitly targeting house owners,as well as highlighting relationships between anticipated climate impacts, existingweather risks and individual management practices. Public–private cooperation is identifiedas an important means for making information more accessible and easily available.
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| 5. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 459-478
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 degrees C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 degrees C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 degrees C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.
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| 6. |
- Lind, Petter, 1979-
(författare)
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Kilometer-scale climate modeling of precipitation in the Nordic region
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Future changes in precipitation, in particular extremes, are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warming climate driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Still, climate model projections of future changes in regional and local precipitation remain uncertain. This is in part due to inabilities of climate models to properly represent important atmospheric moist processes, such as convection, as well as surface properties like complex terrain, primarily since these models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolution. The application of a new generation of kilometer-scale ”convection-permitting” models (CPMs), which treat deep convection explicitly, has led to a step-change improvement in simulating precipitation, especially short-duration local intense events. Therefore, CPMs have proven to be valuable tools in understanding precipitation in present climate and its response to rising global temperatures.Here, the performance of the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) CPM in a regional context has been investigated as well as the added value of this model in comparison with HCLIM run with standard grid resolution of ~10 km. In the present climate, the HCLIM CPM applied over the Nordic region outperforms both the coarser-scale HCLIM and a global reanalysis data set, especially for precipitation on sub-daily time scales in summer when precipitation is often convective. This is corroborated in a study investigating how precipitation is related to large-scale atmospheric circulation, which revealed differences between the HCLIM CPM and its coarser counterpart in convection-dominated circulation types in summer. By improving the frequency and intensity distributions, the wet bias seen in the coarser HCLIM version is reduced by the CPM while also better capturing intense precipitation events, but also improvements in the partitioning between snow and rain in complex terrain.In projections of a future warmer climate, the HCLIM CPM simulates stronger increases in heavy precipitation compared to the coarser-scale HCLIM version, most notably in the warm season, sometimes in excess of the thermodynamically constrained increase in atmospheric moisture content of ~7%/oC, referred to as the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling relation (CC-relation). Applying the HCLIM CPM over European sub-regions with different temperature and humidity conditions reveal consistently stronger increase of sub-daily precipitation at the local scale compared to the scales represented by coarser models. However, the environmental conditions played an important role in the scaling of precipitation with temperature; a scaling larger than the CC-relation was found in regions with relatively moist conditions, while in dry areas the scaling was in line with or smaller than the CC-relation.It is concluded that there is a clear benefit of using HCLIM at the convection-permitting scale, a fit-for-purpose model to investigate precipitation processes and their change following global warming over the Nordic region and elsewhere.
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| 7. |
- Lind, Petter
(författare)
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On the representation of precipitation in high-resolution regional climate models
- 2016
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Weather and climate models applied with sufficiently fine mesh grids to enable a large part of atmospheric deep convection to be explicitly resolved have shown a significantly improved representation of local, short-duration and intense precipitation events compared to coarser scale models. In this thesis, two studies are presented aimed at exploring the dependence of horizontal resolution and of parameterization of convection on the simulation of precipitation. The first examined the ability of HARMONIE Climate (HCLIM) regional climate model to reproduce the recent climate in Europe with two different horizontal resolutions, 15 and 6.25 km. The latter is part of the ”grey-zone” resolution interval corresponding to approximately 3-10 km. Particular focus has been given to rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability and other characteristics, for example intensity distributions. The model configuration with the higher resolution is much better at simulating days of large accumulated precipitation amounts, most evident when the comparison is made against high-resolution observations. Otherwise, the two simulations show similar skill, including the representation of the spatial structure of individual rainfall areas of primarily convective origin. The results suggest a ”scale-awareness” in HCLIM, which supports a central feature of the model’s description of deep convection as it is designed to operate independently of the horizontal resolution. In the second study, summer season precipitation over the Alps region, as simulated by HCLIM at different resolutions, is investigated. Similar model configurations as in the previous study were used, but in addition a simulation at the ”convection-permitting” 2 km resolution has been made over Central Europe. The latter considerably increases the realism compared to the former regarding the distribution and intensities of precipitation, as well as other important characteristics including the duration of rain spells, particularly on sub-daily time scales and for extreme events. The simulations with cumulus parameterization active underestimate short-duration heavy rainfall, and rainspells with low peak intensities are too persistent. Furthermore, even though the 6.25 km simulation generally reduces the biases seen in the 15 km run, definitive conclusions of the benefit of ”grey-zone” resolution is difficult to establish in context of the increased requirement of computer resources for the higher-resolution simulation.
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| 8. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Mid-Holocene European climate revisited : New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover
- 2022
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750-1850). In this study, climate and vegetation 6000 years (6 ka) ago is investigated using one global climate model, two regional climate models, one dynamical vegetation model, pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation cover using a model of the pollen-vegetation relationship and a statistical model for spatial interpolation of the reconstructed land cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka climate with potential natural and reconstructed land cover, and to determine how differences in land cover impact upon simulated climate. The use of two regional climate models enables us to discuss the robustness of the results. This is the first experiment with two regional climate models of simulated palaeo-climate based on regional climate models. Different estimates of 6 ka vegetation are constructed: simulated potential vegetation and reconstructed vegetation. Potential vegetation is the natural climate-induced vegetation as simulated by a dynamical vegetation model driven by climate conditions from a climate model. Bayesian spatial model interpolated point estimates of pollen-based plant abundances combined with estimates of climate-induced potential un-vegetated land cover were used for reconstructed vegetation. The simulated potential vegetation is heavily dominated by forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate in northern and eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved forests dominate central and western Europe. In contrast, the reconstructed vegetation cover has a large component of open land in most of Europe. The simulated 6 ka climate using reconstructed vegetation was 0-5 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending on season and region. The largest differences are seen in north-eastern Europe in winter with about 4-6 degrees C, and the smallest differences (close to zero) in southwestern Europe in winter. The simulated 6 ka climate had 10-20% more precipitation than PI climate in northern Europe and 10-20% less precipitation in southern Europe in summer. The results are in reasonable agreement with proxy-based climate reconstructions and previous similar climate modelling studies. As expected, the global model and regional models indicate relatively similar climates albeit with regional differences indicating that, models response to land-cover changes differently. The results indicate that the anthropogenic land-cover changes, as given by the reconstructed vegetation, in this study are large enough to have a significant impact on climate. It is likely that anthropogenic impact on European climate via land-use change was already taking place at 6 ka. Our results suggest that anthropogenic land-cover changes at 6 ka lead to around 0.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer due to biogeophysical forcing. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 9. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, et al.
(författare)
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Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP : sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation
- 2014
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 10:2, s. 661-680
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, similar to 6 and similar to 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At similar to 6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5-1 degrees C. At similar to 0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from -1 degrees C in south-western Europe to +1 degrees C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.
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| 10. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial
- 2010
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Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 39:2, s. 436-456
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- State-of-the-art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off-line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land-sea distribution, ice-sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 degrees C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy-based sea-surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice-sheet configuration, with large ice-free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice-sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice-free conditions in south-central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice-sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.
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