| 1. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(author)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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In: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 2. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(author)
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European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
- 2018
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 459-478
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 degrees C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 degrees C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 degrees C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.
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| 3. |
- Lind, Petter, 1979-
(author)
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Kilometer-scale climate modeling of precipitation in the Nordic region
- 2023
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Future changes in precipitation, in particular extremes, are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warming climate driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Still, climate model projections of future changes in regional and local precipitation remain uncertain. This is in part due to inabilities of climate models to properly represent important atmospheric moist processes, such as convection, as well as surface properties like complex terrain, primarily since these models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolution. The application of a new generation of kilometer-scale ”convection-permitting” models (CPMs), which treat deep convection explicitly, has led to a step-change improvement in simulating precipitation, especially short-duration local intense events. Therefore, CPMs have proven to be valuable tools in understanding precipitation in present climate and its response to rising global temperatures.Here, the performance of the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) CPM in a regional context has been investigated as well as the added value of this model in comparison with HCLIM run with standard grid resolution of ~10 km. In the present climate, the HCLIM CPM applied over the Nordic region outperforms both the coarser-scale HCLIM and a global reanalysis data set, especially for precipitation on sub-daily time scales in summer when precipitation is often convective. This is corroborated in a study investigating how precipitation is related to large-scale atmospheric circulation, which revealed differences between the HCLIM CPM and its coarser counterpart in convection-dominated circulation types in summer. By improving the frequency and intensity distributions, the wet bias seen in the coarser HCLIM version is reduced by the CPM while also better capturing intense precipitation events, but also improvements in the partitioning between snow and rain in complex terrain.In projections of a future warmer climate, the HCLIM CPM simulates stronger increases in heavy precipitation compared to the coarser-scale HCLIM version, most notably in the warm season, sometimes in excess of the thermodynamically constrained increase in atmospheric moisture content of ~7%/oC, referred to as the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling relation (CC-relation). Applying the HCLIM CPM over European sub-regions with different temperature and humidity conditions reveal consistently stronger increase of sub-daily precipitation at the local scale compared to the scales represented by coarser models. However, the environmental conditions played an important role in the scaling of precipitation with temperature; a scaling larger than the CC-relation was found in regions with relatively moist conditions, while in dry areas the scaling was in line with or smaller than the CC-relation.It is concluded that there is a clear benefit of using HCLIM at the convection-permitting scale, a fit-for-purpose model to investigate precipitation processes and their change following global warming over the Nordic region and elsewhere.
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| 4. |
- Lind, Petter
(author)
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On the representation of precipitation in high-resolution regional climate models
- 2016
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Licentiate thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Weather and climate models applied with sufficiently fine mesh grids to enable a large part of atmospheric deep convection to be explicitly resolved have shown a significantly improved representation of local, short-duration and intense precipitation events compared to coarser scale models. In this thesis, two studies are presented aimed at exploring the dependence of horizontal resolution and of parameterization of convection on the simulation of precipitation. The first examined the ability of HARMONIE Climate (HCLIM) regional climate model to reproduce the recent climate in Europe with two different horizontal resolutions, 15 and 6.25 km. The latter is part of the ”grey-zone” resolution interval corresponding to approximately 3-10 km. Particular focus has been given to rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability and other characteristics, for example intensity distributions. The model configuration with the higher resolution is much better at simulating days of large accumulated precipitation amounts, most evident when the comparison is made against high-resolution observations. Otherwise, the two simulations show similar skill, including the representation of the spatial structure of individual rainfall areas of primarily convective origin. The results suggest a ”scale-awareness” in HCLIM, which supports a central feature of the model’s description of deep convection as it is designed to operate independently of the horizontal resolution. In the second study, summer season precipitation over the Alps region, as simulated by HCLIM at different resolutions, is investigated. Similar model configurations as in the previous study were used, but in addition a simulation at the ”convection-permitting” 2 km resolution has been made over Central Europe. The latter considerably increases the realism compared to the former regarding the distribution and intensities of precipitation, as well as other important characteristics including the duration of rain spells, particularly on sub-daily time scales and for extreme events. The simulations with cumulus parameterization active underestimate short-duration heavy rainfall, and rainspells with low peak intensities are too persistent. Furthermore, even though the 6.25 km simulation generally reduces the biases seen in the 15 km run, definitive conclusions of the benefit of ”grey-zone” resolution is difficult to establish in context of the increased requirement of computer resources for the higher-resolution simulation.
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| 5. |
- Rutgersson, Anna, 1971-, et al.
(author)
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Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
- 2022
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus Publications. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 13:1, s. 251-301
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.
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| 6. |
- Chen, Jie, et al.
(author)
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The Contribution of Vegetation-Climate Feedback and Resultant Sea Ice Loss to Amplified Arctic Warming During the Mid-Holocene
- 2022
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 49:18
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding influence of vegetation on past temperature changes in the Arctic region would help isolate uncertainty and build understanding of its broader climate system, with implications for paleoclimate reconstructions and future climate change. Using an Earth system model EC-Earth, we conduct a series of simulations to investigate the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the Arctic climate during the mid-Holocene. Results show Arctic greening induced by the warming resulting from stronger orbital forcing, further amplifies the Arctic warming. The increased vegetation contributes 0.33 degrees C of Arctic warming and 0.35 x 106 km2 of Arctic sea ice loss. Increased Arctic vegetation leads to reduced land surface albedo and increased evapotranspiration, both of which cause local warming in spring and summer. The resultant sea ice loss causes warming in the following seasons, with atmospheric circulation anomalies further amplifying the warming. Our results highlight the significant contribution of vegetation-climate feedback to Arctic climate under natural conditions.
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| 7. |
- Christensen, Ole B., et al.
(author)
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Filling the matrix : an ANOVA-based method to emulate regional climate model simulations for equally-weighted properties of ensembles of opportunity
- 2022
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 58:9-10, s. 2371-2385
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Collections of large ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) downscaled climate data for particular regions and scenarios can be organized in a usually incomplete matrix consisting of GCM (global climate model) x RCM combinations. When simple ensemble averages are calculated, each GCM will effectively be weighted by the number of times it has been downscaled. In order to facilitate more equal and less arbitrary weighting among downscaled GCM results, we present a method to emulate the missing combinations in such a matrix, enabling equal weighting among participating GCMs and hence among regional consequences of large-scale climate change simulated by each GCM. This method is based on a traditional Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approach. The method is applied and studied for fields of seasonal average temperature, precipitation and surface wind and for the 10-year return value of daily precipitation and of 10-m wind speed for a completely filled matrix consisting of 5 GCMs and 4 RCMs. We quantify the skill of the two averaging methods for different numbers of missing simulations and show that ensembles where lacking members have been emulated by the ANOVA technique are better at representing the full ensemble than corresponding simple ensemble averages, particularly in cases where only a few model combinations are absent. The technique breaks down when the number of missing simulations reaches the sum of the numbers of GCMs and RCMs. Also, the method is only useful when inter-simulation variability is limited. This is the case for the average fields that have been studied, but not for the extremes. We have developed analytical expressions for the degree of improvement obtained with the present method, which quantify this conclusion.
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| 8. |
- Christensen, Ole B., et al.
(author)
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Partitioning uncertainty components of mean climate and climate change in a large ensemble of European regional climate model projections
- 2020
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:9-10, s. 4293-4308
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A study of seasonal mean temperature, precipitation, and wind speed has been performed for a set of 19 global climate model (GCM) driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations forming a complete 5 x 4 GCM x RCM matrix with only one missing simulation. Differences between single simulations and between groups of simulations forced by a specific GCM or a specific RCM are identified. With the help of an analysis of variance (ANOVA) we split the ensemble variance into linear GCM and RCM contributions and cross terms for both mean climate and climate change for the end of the current century according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The results document that the choice of GCM generally has a larger influence on the climate change signal than the choice of RCM, having a significant influence for roughly twice as many points in the area for the fields investigated (temperature, precipitation and wind speed). It is also clear that the RCM influence is generally concentrated close to the eastern and northern boundaries and in mountainous areas, i.e., in areas where the added surface detail of e.g. orography, snow and ice seen by the RCM is expected to have considerable influence on the climate, and in areas where the air in general has spent the most time within the regional domain. The analysis results in estimates of areas where the specific identity of either GCM or RCM is formally significant, hence obtaining an indication about regions, seasons, and fields where linear superpositions of GCM and RCM effects are good approximations to an actual simulation for both the mean fields analysed and their changes. In cases where linear superposition works well, the frequently encountered sparse GCM-RCM matrices may be filled with emulated results, leading to the possibility of giving more fair relative weight between model simulations than simple averaging of existing simulations. An important result of the present study is that properties of the specific GCM-RCM combination are generally important for the mean climate, but negligible for climate change for the seasonal-mean surface fields investigated here.
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| 9. |
- Forsberg, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Colonoscopy findings in high-risk individuals compared to an average-risk control population
- 2015
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0036-5521 .- 1502-7708. ; 50:7, s. 866-874
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and aims: There is clear evidence of reduced morbidity and mortality from regular colonoscopy programs in patients with Lynch syndrome (LS). Today, also individuals with empirically increased risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) are offered colonoscopic surveillance. The aim was to compare the findings at the first screening colonoscopy in LS carriers, and individuals with an increased risk of bowel cancer due to family history of CRC with a control population. Methods: Altogether 1397 individuals with an increased risk for CRC were divided in four risk groups: one with LS carriers and three groups with individuals with different family history of CRC. The findings were compared between the different risk groups and a control group consisting of 745 individuals from a control population who took part in a population-based colonoscopy study. Results: In LS, 30% of the individuals had adenomas and 10% advanced adenomas. The corresponding figures in the other risk groups were 14-24% and 4-7%, compared with 10% and 3% in the control group. The relative risk of having adenomas and advanced adenomas was, compared to controls, significantly higher for all risk groups except the group with the lowest risk. Age was a strong predictor for adenomas and advanced adenomas in both risk individuals and controls. Conclusions: Individuals with a family history of CRC have a high prevalence and cumulative risk of adenomas and advanced adenomas, and screening is motivated also in this risk group.
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| 10. |
- Forsberg, Anna M., et al.
(author)
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Prevalence of colonic neoplasia and advanced lesions in the normal population : a prospective population-based colonoscopy study
- 2012
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In: Scandinavian journal of gastroenterology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1502-7708 .- 0036-5521. ; 47:2, s. 184-90
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective. There are few prospective studies of the prevalence of colonic neoplasia in the normal population. In order to properly evaluate screening-protocols for colorectal cancer in risk groups (e.g., older subjects or those with a family history), it is essential to know the prevalence of adenomas and cancer in the normal population. Methods. A prospective population-based colonoscopy study on 745 individuals born in Sweden aged 19-70 years was conducted (mean age 51.1 years). All polyps seen were retrieved and examined. Results. Out of the 745 individuals 27% had polyps, regardless of kind. Adenomas were found in 10% of the individuals and finding of adenomas was positively correlated to higher age. Men had adenomas in 15% and women in 6% of the cases. Women had a right-sided dominance of adenomas. Hyperplastic polyps were seen in 21% of the individuals. The presence of hyperplastic polyps was significantly positively correlated to the presence of adenomas. Advanced adenomas were seen in 2.8% of the study participants, but no cancers were detected. Conclusion. One in 10 healthy subjects had an adenoma but advanced adenomas were uncommon. Men and women have a different adenoma prevalence and localization. The results provide baseline European data for evaluating colonoscopy screening-protocols for colorectal cancer risk groups, and the findings may have implications for colon cancer screening in the normal, otherwise-healthy population.
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