| 1. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions in Europe for climate modelling: LandClim II
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) change through time is an important aspect when attempting to interpret human-environment interactions through time. Palaeoenvironmental techniques have been crucial in bridging this gap by providing information that has been used to estimate climate change, vegetation change, sea level change etc. through time using a variety of proxies. Producing quantitative land-cover reconstructions has been an aim and a challenge with several methods attempted during the decades. In this project, we use the REVEALS model has been tested and validated in several regions of the world.We use REVEALS-based quantitative reconstructions of vegetation change to investigate the biogeochemical and biogeophysical forcings of land-cover change on climate. In the first phase of this project, LandClim I, quantitative vegetation reconstructions were produced for Europe (Mediterranean area excluded) focusing on five time windows of the Holocene between 6ka BP and present. The results from a regional climate model showed that the impact of the reconstructed LULC between 6 ka and 0.2 ka BP via biogeophysical forcing varied geographically and seasonally. We present the REVEALS quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstruction from the ongoing second phase of the project LandClim II “Quantification of the biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings from anthropogenic deforestation on regional Holocene climate in Europe”. This reconstruction covers entire Europe and is transient over the Holocene with a time resolution of 500 years between 11.2 and 0.7ka BP, and 100 to 300 years from 0.7ka BP to modern time.
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| 3. |
- Kjellström, Sofia, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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A developmental questionnaire on knowing and learning
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Are students and teachers up to the developmental challenge of teaching and learning the exceptional capabilities needed to address the complex issues of our time? Issues such as moving towards a sustainable development of society are typically quite complex and ill-structured. In order for higher education to provide opportunities for intellectual growth and development among students, a key issue besides complex thinking is to acknowledge the different epistemological beliefs of teachers and students, such as conceptions of teaching and learning, that may influence the teaching and learning experience and so the quality of the learning outcome. We will present a newly constructed epistemological beliefs questionnaire, concerning views on knowledge and learning. The questionnaire consists of 6 domains (a good study book, discussions, application of knowledge, responsibility for learning, understanding, good teaching), with 6 items in each domain, which are rated and ranked. The questionnaire is based on adult developmental theory (e.g. van Rossum & Hamer, 2010), where the developmental trajectory goes from a view of knowledge as being true or false and provided by the teacher as authority, to a view that emphasizes the constructed and contextual nature of knowledge – allowing teachers to adapt the teaching to the context and the student’s developmental level. In the spring of 2014, this questionnaire and a previously developed value system questionnaire will be sent to all teachers at Jönköping University (JU). The epistemological beliefs questionnaire is to be analysed with multivariate methods such as a multivariate pattern recognition method and factor analysis. Previous analyses of the value system questionnaire, using corresponding methods, have resulted in an identification of several developmental stages of values, and the epistemological beliefs questionnaire is expected to yield a similar result. Results from the two questionnaires will be compared in order to investigate the relationship between values and epistemological assumptions.
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| 4. |
- Leijonhufvud, Gustaf, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainties in damage assessments of future indoor climates
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate for Collections - Standards and Uncertainties. - Munich. - 9781909492004 ; , s. 405-418
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant amount of uncertainty is generated in the processof combining projections of future climate, building simulationsand damage functions to produce risk maps for historic buildings.The objective of this paper is to identify and qualitatively describethe main uncertainties in the production of such maps. The mainsources of uncertainty for each modeling step are identified. It isconcluded that the level of uncertainty in risk maps is so high thatdeterministic approaches have severe limitations, and that furtherresearch is needed to assess the levels of uncertainty introducedby each modeling step.
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| 7. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021). - Singapore : Research Publishing Services. - 9789811820168 ; , s. 1318-1325
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling.
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| 8. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(författare)
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Towards a holistic prioritization of climate-change risks for bridges
- 2019
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Ingår i: 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13. - 9791196712501
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although the projected changes in the climate include considerable uncertainties, especially with downscaling, there is irrefutable evidence that the climate is changing at an unprecedented and alarming rate. In recent studies, some of the potential climate-change risks on bridges have been identified. The sheer number of these potential risks provokes two questions. Firstly, for a certain risk of interest (e.g. increased scour rate) which bridges should be prioritized from an inventory of bridges? Secondly, for a specific bridge, which of these risks are more critical? This paper proposes a method that can be used for addressing these two questions while considering the uncertainties intrinsic to the problem. Although this paper focuses on addressing the first question, a discussion on how the proposed method can be used for answering the second is also presented. The suggested method is based on four risk components
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| 10. |
- Nielsen, Anker, 1945, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainability of the Swedish built environment towards climate change. Hygro-thermal effects and design criteria for buildings with respect to future climate scenarios
- 2007
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Ingår i: Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Whole Buildings. - 2166-8469. ; 10th
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most of predictable climatic impacts on buildings can be successfully managed by an adequate construction. However, possible deviations in predicted loads and especially the long-term ones may change the building designed, e.g. expected response. For example, changes in snow and wind loads and short-time precipitation are of a great interest for constructions with large flat roofs. Climate projections from climate models point to a warmer climate with an intensified hydrological cycle in the future. Warmer summers lead to increased demand for cooling energy, while a warmer and more humid climate will possibly increase risks for moisture and mould-growth problems. This paper gives some outlines from a new research project on sustainability of Swedish built environment towards climate changes. The project will be conducted at Chalmers University of technology, Sweden, in cooperation with the climate research unit Rossby Centre at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
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